Vladimir Putin offered Armenia a "smart divorce": he put the country before a choice between the Eurasian Economic Union and the EU. What does this mean for Yerevan? What would be the price of "separation" from Russia?
Vladimir Putin's proposal for a "smart divorce" with Armenia sounded like an ultimatum, putting the country's leadership before a difficult choice: whether to maintain its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union or finally turn to the EU.
Many in Armenia perceived Putin's words as increasing pressure on Yerevan and as a clear sign that the times of backroom diplomacy and tacit compromises are over.
End of the nuances and shadow of Ukraine
Although Armenia continues to participate in all integration associations under the auspices of Moscow, it has long since distanced itself from Russia. Yerevan has taken a course of rapprochement with Brussels and openly declared its intention to join the EU, including inscribing this in legislation. In Yerevan, this process is called "diversification", while for Moscow it is a geopolitical turn.
The catalyst for the sharp intensification of the Kremlin's rhetoric was two unprecedented diplomatic events for the region: the meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) held in Yerevan in early May and the EU-Armenia summit. Moscow was particularly irritated by the fact that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was also present at the ENP forum.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's reaction was not long in coming - he suggested that Yerevan hold a referendum on joining the EU. And in the event of choosing the European vector - "intelligent and mutually beneficial divorce", which was accompanied by the following unambiguous hint: "We see what is happening now in Ukraine. But how did it all start? With Ukraine's attempt to join the EU".
Let us recall that a month earlier, at a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the Russian president stated that Armenia's parallel membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the EU is incompatible. The prime minister replied that future participation in both blocs would be impossible, but for the time being there is compatibility. And when the time comes for the final choice, the decision will be made by the Armenian people.
"Interstate relations are not a marriage"
Yerevan reacted with restraint to Moscow's proposal for a "smart divorce", trying to reduce tension. Prime Minister Pashinyan said that for the authorities, the issue of choosing between the EEU and the EU is not on the agenda. He rejected the metaphor of "divorce", emphasizing that in interstate relations Armenia is guided by interstate logic and remains a full member of the EEU.
At the same time, Pashinyan acknowledged the existence of "discomforts" in relations with Russia, calling them part of the "inevitable transformation". The election program of the ruling "Civil Contract" party before the parliamentary elections on June 7th states that Yerevan intends to continue to develop "mutually beneficial and constructive cooperation" with Moscow.
The leader of the opposition bloc "Armenia" Robert Kocharyan, who has a reputation for long-standing friendly relations with Vladimir Putin, called the policy of the Armenian authorities dangerous and noted that playing with the EU could lead to Russia "losing patience". He reminded that the socio-economic well-being of a huge number of citizens critically depends on relations with Russia.
Will Armenia withstand a rupture with Russia?
Despite the pro-Western rhetoric of Pashinyan's team, the numbers show that since 2018, Armenia's economic dependence on Russia has not only not decreased, but has increased several times. Trade and especially exports to Russia have increased many times, while supplies to EU markets have decreased by five percent. Experts estimate that the loss of the Russian market will be a "severe shock" for the country.
In addition, Armenia is currently practically totally dependent on Russian gas. Its only alternative is the Iranian pipeline, which is also owned by the Russian "Gazprom". But the quantities supplied by it cover only 15-17 percent of consumption.
Are the claims about the destructive consequences exaggerated?
Armenian economist Hayk Gevorgyan uses mathematical arguments to refute claims about the destructive consequences of the separation between Armenia and Russia. "Russia's share in Armenia's foreign trade is 35 percent, and the remaining 65 percent falls on other countries, including the EU. Therefore, the negative effect of leaving the EEU can only affect this one-third." The expert also emphasizes that a large part of this 35 percent is re-export, which does not affect GDP.
As for the sale of agricultural products, Gevorgyan notes that the sector is modernizing and exports can be reoriented to Europe and other countries, as is already the case. The expert told DW that due to Armenia's membership in the EEU, it has to buy some goods from Russia at very high prices - such as sugar, while outside the economic bloc this would be possible at much lower prices.
Commenting on gas dependence, Gevorgyan expressed doubts that Moscow would sharply raise prices, since the internal distribution is carried out by the Russian company "Gazprom Armenia" itself. "The presence of "Gazprom" in Armenia is a rather important detail for Russia itself, and it is unlikely that the decision to double or triple the price will be made easily. If the price jumps by a few percent, Armenia will already have to reconsider its own relations with "Gazprom", he says.
Therefore, the expert believes that the catastrophic scenarios are greatly exaggerated, and Yerevan also has potential alternative solutions - neighboring countries Iran and Azerbaijan, which also produce gas.