What were the first concrete steps of the new government in Bulgaria and what do they say? Although doubts creep in on some issues, the start of the new government is generally rather encouraging, Daniel Smilov believes.
The "Radev" government began its activities with a focus on high prices and changes in the judicial sphere and the fight against corruption. An important emphasis is the European and foreign policy of the new cabinet - and there are indications of it, although it seems to have been deliberately left in the background in the first days. The specific measures and first steps are as follows:
Radev's visits to Berlin
This is a good decision that emphasizes traditional ties and Bulgaria's desire to be close to the "heart" of Europe. The following visits are also to European capitals, which as a symbol excludes any "Euro-isolationism".
Sending an ambassador, not a minister, to the NATO B-9 meeting
In Bucharest, where the security of the eastern part of the EU and NATO is being discussed, Bulgaria was represented at a lower level than the other countries. The excuse that we are busy with more important things is not convincing. Bulgaria supported the declarations and other requests of the forum, which is good. But still, this is a signal that the country will look for nuances and may even not participate in initiatives for enhanced cooperation in the field of defense. Which is not good.
First EU Council for Foreign Minister Petrova-Chamova
The signals from this meeting were more for continuity in Bulgaria's policy towards Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and other issues. The impression is confirmed that Bulgaria would not block common European initiatives in the field of foreign affairs, but when there is an internal division in the EU, it is likely to take positions that are more advantageous to Russia.
Kandev remains the Secretary General of the Ministry of Internal Affairs
This is a good decision, which shows a desire to bring professionalism to the forefront. Hopefully, it is not just a move that will make it impossible to attract Kandev to a possible presidential pair for the elections in the fall.
Parliamentary temporary committees
The position that there is no point in such committees is indefensible. It is no coincidence that they are recognized as a legitimate and effective tool all over the world. Their purpose is to investigate cases - such as Peevski's property, the "Dwarves", the "Notary", etc., which other institutions do not investigate or there are serious doubts about their actions. It is precisely the parliament that is called upon to conduct the necessary verification and at the very least to present the information. So far, these committees have been ineffective because GERB and DPS (with crutches like ITN) have always had a blocking quota and an outright majority in parliament. It is interesting why now, when for the first time these parties do not have a majority, Radev has given up on the committees. In such a situation, it is impossible to avoid expressing doubts in the public space about some kind of agreement with Borisov and Peevski.
The security of Borisov and Peevski from the NSO
It is good that it has been removed, but the very fact that they used it for so long without any real reason should be investigated and those responsible for this disgrace should be sought. If the need for this security disappeared immediately with the change of power, this can logically only mean one of the following two things. First, the removal of the security is politically motivated and unjustified. Second, the use of the security for so long was politically motivated and unjustified. The second is more likely, but in this case the majority should investigate the services and procedures by which this security was provided. After all, we are talking about millions that the taxpayer gave to Borisov and Peevski to show off their entourage. Here is a good question for a temporary parliamentary committee.
Proposed changes to the Judiciary and SJC Act
Here, the coincidence with the ideas of the PP-DB is great and in general it is good that the SJC's ability to appoint higher magistrates, with its mandate expired, is being limited. It is not impossible to find a way for other organizations (universities, NGOs) to make proposals for nominations for the SJC, which can then be adopted by deputies. The true intentions of "Progressive Bulgaria" (PB) in this area will become clear in the nomination and election process. If they rely on unknown people with previously unclear positions, there is a possibility that the status quo will be reproduced. Therefore, maximum illumination of the candidates (both from the parliamentary and professional quotas) is necessary in order to avoid hidden dependencies. What's more: PB does not raise the issue, but disciplinary and professional responsibility must be sought for magistrates who quite consciously turned a blind eye to the law and allowed Sarafov to be acting chief prosecutor well beyond the statutory six months. This is an unprecedented case of undermining the prestige of the judiciary, which, if left unpunished, will be a very bad start for the new government. The least they can do is elect members of the Supreme Judicial Council who are ready to raise and consider similar disciplinary cases against Sarafov and the current members of the Supreme Judicial Council's prosecutorial quota.
Replacements of regional governors, police chiefs, appointment of deputy ministers
This is something that is within the right of the new majority. It is too early to assess. With such large-scale changes, there will always be a bombshell, as happened with a deputy minister of education. There are other controversial appointments, but this is in a sense normal and expected. The results of this personnel policy are yet to be assessed in more detail.
Measures against high prices
A lot is being said about these measures, and with them the government risks creating unrealistic expectations among people. More inspections by the CPC, online reference values, "fair prices", reducing the markup of large chains (why only them, when they are 60% of the market?), etc. All this probably tickles someone's ears, but the problem is that it also creates legitimate expectations for lower prices. This will not happen, especially because of these measures. Prices will probably continue to rise due to the real increase in incomes in our country and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as other international factors. Moreover: increasing the administrative burden for chains and stores (pricing reports, inspections, etc.), limiting the import of goods at the expense of domestic production (more border checks, more technical requirements for imports, etc.), stimulating the purchase of mostly Bulgarian production are all measures that will not lower prices, but will raise them.
The real reasons for inflation and other problems
So far, the government and the majority have not really addressed these reasons - perhaps they really need time to do it properly. These reasons were mentioned above. First, this is the real growth of incomes in the country, which is a good thing. It should not be stopped or frozen: the government should propose, through the budget, an increase in incomes that is ahead of inflation, but is still within the requirements of the eurozone and gradually reduces the deficit below 3%. This task will not be easy, but it is not so difficult as to make unnecessary noise about it.
Second, banks need to slightly tighten credit for companies and the population. This must be done carefully so as not to "cool" the economy abruptly. The new government has a longer horizon, so it can develop a balanced policy on this issue, make the appropriate regulations and seek support from the banking sector for the general line.
Third, cuts in public spending to bring the deficit below 3%, for which the agreements for the first two measures apply. Downsizing part of the administration, a reasonable review of capital expenditures, a conservative attitude towards the BDB and other units that have traditionally distributed unsecured loans to client structures are part of the real measures against inflation.
Fourth, inflation disproportionately affects the most vulnerable groups. In fact, this is the social issue that needs to be resolved. The PB laughed at the 20 euros for fuel from the "Gyurov" cabinet, but now they have to propose the necessary measures. Let's see what they will be.
Fifth, if we want more Bulgarian fruits, vegetables and dairy products in stores, the state should not twist the chains' hands to sell them, but should do the following things. For two decades, EU subsidies have primarily gone to sectors such as grain production. That is why this sector has developed and industrialized, while the others have been neglected. The redirection of subsidies to other sectors (which is already happening) must be accelerated as a process. The state should support vegetable growers, fruit growers and livestock breeders with investments in irrigation of areas and incentives for their cooperation. Until they consolidate their production, it is impossible to ask large chains to prefer their production. Chains cannot conclude a huge number of contracts with small producers without guarantees of volumes and quality. Cooperation can partially solve this problem of collective action.
In conclusion
Overall, the start of the new government is (rather) encouraging. A rather positive development is the return of normal, expert debate in the National Assembly and the public sphere as a whole. The new government's downgrading of European and international lines, combined with requests to follow the current course, is rather positive in view of the Russophile expectations that were created in the campaign before the elections. The measures in the field of the fight against corruption and the implementation of judicial reform are still at an embryonic stage - and here there are positive signals, but there are also serious doubts about what exactly the goals of the political majority are. And the measures against high prices are for now more like steam in the whistle. But when the train leaves, it is right to blow the whistle.
This text expresses the opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.