5 years ago, in 2021, the West risked diplomatic conflict with Turkey after 10 ambassadors called for the release of a man they claimed was a political prisoner, prompting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to order their expulsion. This is what Jonathan Spicer writes in his analysis for "Reuters".
This concerns the Turkish civil rights activist and philanthropist Osman Kavala, who in 2022 was sentenced to life in prison without parole, having been found guilty of attempting to overthrow the government with mass protests in 2013.
But two days later - after Erdogan expelled the ambassadors, the two sides backed down, with American, French, German, Canadian and other envoys issuing conciliatory statements, and Erdogan saying they would be more careful in the future.
Since then - and especially since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has illuminated Europe's defense weaknesses - the West has largely avoided publicly expressing concern about the "achievements" Turkey on rights and freedoms, focusing instead on strengthening security ties with a regional military power and major arms exports.
The West’s diplomatic turn will be particularly evident at the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8.
Alliance leaders are not expected to criticize the unprecedented judicial crackdown on Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), including the jailing of its presidential candidate, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan’s main rival.
Some critics of Erdogan’s government believe the West’s relative silence is encouraging his authoritarian bent, isolating the Turkish opposition and ignoring NATO’s founding principles of democracy and the rule of law.
"It remains important for the West to continue to comment on the degradation of democratic institutions in Turkey because "The course is not irrevocably set, Turkey is not beyond the permissible," commented David Satterfield, former US ambassador to Ankara, now director of the Baker Institute for Public Policy. He stressed that it was important for Turks to "hear others talk about their system in this way".
Satterfield denied that his advocacy for human rights in Turkey had damaged the basic transactional relationship between the United States and Turkey, and added that the decision during President Donald Trump's second term to avoid discussing democratic values had not contributed to the development of relations.
In 2021, Erdogan ordered Satterfield to be declared "persona non grata", along with nine other Western ambassadors, after they jointly called for Kavala's release, stressing that the case was harmful to Turkish democracy.
Kavala, who was sentenced to life in prison, denies charges of attempting to overthrow the government. In 2019, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that he and others in the case should be released due to insufficient evidence and that his detention was aimed at silencing him.
Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has been in power for 23 years, rejects criticism of its democratic credentials and any suggestions that the courts are politicized, saying the judiciary is independent.
In the past two years, hundreds of officials and members of the opposition CHP have been arrested, and its leader was ousted from power, which the party described as a judicial coup.
Amid this, dozens of Turkish journalists from independent media outlets have raised the alarm that they were not allowed to attend the NATO summit in Ankara, and authorities have detained more than 200 people, citing security concerns.
The office of Erdogan has not commented on the media accreditation denials, while NATO says it relies on the host country for guidance on such matters.
When asked if the alliance planned to raise human rights issues at the summit, a NATO official referred to an earlier statement on the accreditation issue, saying it was very important for reporters to be present in person.
Few European countries have commented on the crackdown on the CHP. Some Western diplomats say that open criticism of Ankara's policies does little to mitigate a potential democratic backsliding, so they prefer to raise concerns privately with Turkish officials.
In addition, US President Donald Trump will also attend the NATO summit, marking his first visit to Turkey as US president. He is also expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Erdogan, whom he has regularly called a friend and highlighted the warmest US-Turkey relations in years.
Ankara wants the summit to highlight the unity of the Alliance and help expand partnerships in the defence industry. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said deals worth tens of billions of dollars would be announced. Allies increasingly see Turkey, which has the second-largest army in NATO and is a leading exporter of armed drones, as a bulwark against Russian aggression on its southeastern flank. Turkey’s growing value to NATO comes after some past tensions, including Turkey’s delay of Sweden’s and Finland’s membership bids in 2022 to 2023 and its relatively cordial relations with Moscow. Western allies are now signaling that they have “to some extent abandoned their values and prefer transactional relations ... knowing that Turkey is indispensable for the defense of Europe,” said Karol Wasilewski, head of the Turkey, Caucasus and Central Asia department at the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies. Ankara knows that any Western criticism, including regarding the repression of the opposition RNP, will be muted and "will not translate into action", he stressed.