More than four years ago, Russia launched an aggressive war against Ukraine. Since then, the incomes of Russian citizens have grown significantly. According to data from the Central Bank of Russia, the increase is an average of a quarter even in real terms, i.e. adjusted for inflation. According to experts, the main reason for the increase in incomes was the acute shortage of labor caused by the reorientation of the economy to military needs. But has the average Russian really become richer?
To answer this question, economists consider the ability to purchase a car as one of the main criteria for a household's belonging to the middle class. However, according to this indicator, the well-being of Russians has rather decreased. Why?
How have the prices of new cars in Russia changed?
As of May 2026, the average price of a new passenger car in Russia, according to data from the analytical agency "Avtostat", amounts to about 3.4 million rubles. In the used car market, the average price is almost three times lower – 1.2 million rubles.
Considering that the average salary in the country, according to the latest information from "Rosstat", amounts to 103.9 thousand rubles, the average Russian would have to save almost his entire salary for the purchase of a new car for three years (33 months), and for a used one – exactly one year.
Five years ago, in May 2021, the average salary in nominal terms was approximately two times lower (51.2 thousand rubles), but cars also cost less: the average price of a new car, according to calculations by "Avtostat", was 1.9 million, and a used one - 0.6 million rubles. This means that the average Russian had to pay 37 salaries for a new car, and 12 for a used one.
It turns out that income growth has led to only a small increase in well-being - if we measure it in cars. But this calculation is correct only if we deal with average values.
What happened to the Russian car market?
During the war against Ukraine, the Russian car market changed radically. The average new car in 2021 and the one today are completely different cars that are difficult to compare with each other.
In 2021, the Russian market was dominated by cars of global concerns assembled in the country, as well as the production of AvtoVAZ, which was part of the French Renault group. The German BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen, the Japanese Mazda, Nissan and Toyota, the American Ford and the Korean corporation Hyundai-Kia had their own or contract production in Russia. In general, foreign cars assembled in the country accounted for as much as 60% of sales in 2021, and Lada and other Russian brands – over 20%.
In 2022, Western companies stopped production, and then sold their factories to new owners - mostly for symbolic amounts. In the first year of the war, car production in Russia, according to estimates by "Rosstat", collapsed threefold - to a historic low of 450,000 units. After that, production began to gradually recover - thanks to Chinese models assembled in Russia. However, the volume is incomparable to that of before the war.
As a result, imports from China took a dominant position in the market, the share of which reached 60 percent, according to "Avtostat" data. Today, mainly Chinese cars are also assembled on the territory of the country - either under original brands or under Russian brands (apart from Lada, these are the revived Moskvich and Volga).
Affordability of cars
If we assess the affordability of cars that Russians preferred to buy before the war, the situation looks much worse. For example, the Hyundai Solaris sedan, the most popular foreign car according to 2021 data, in its basic version then cost 840,000 rubles, which was less than 16 and a half average salaries. In 2026, the price of a similar car, which continues to be assembled at the former Hyundai facilities in St. Petersburg under the Solaris brand (HS model), will already amount to no less than 2.4 million rubles, which is slightly more than 23 average salaries.
The fact that the market is still adapting to the new conditions is an important, but not the only reason for this price increase. Another factor is the state policy, which is systematically increasing various taxes, for example, the eco-tax, which manufacturers and traders pass on to consumers.
According to calculations by the Union of Russian Automobile Dealers, in the period from 2012 to 2025, the share of official fees in the final price of an imported car in Russia increased from 28% in 2012 to 40% in 2025, and in 2026 it is expected to reach 44%.
The increased cost of car loans is also an important factor. According to the Russian Central Bank, in the first quarter of 2026 the interest rate for buying a car in Russia was 23.8% on an annual basis. For comparison: in the fourth quarter of 2021, car loans increased the cost of the purchase by 14.5% per year.
What awaits the Russian automobile market in the future
In short: in recent years, Russians' incomes have increased, but the automobile market has shrunk. In 2025, according to data from "Avtostat", about 1.3 million new cars were sold - compared to over 1.5 million in 2021. And compared to 2012, the most successful year in Russian history, sales have shrunk more than twice.
In addition, the Russian car fleet is aging rapidly. The average age of passenger cars, according to "Avtostat", has increased from 14 years at the beginning of 2022 to 16 years by mid-2025. Of the 46 million cars owned by Russians, about 35 million are over 15 years old. The older the car becomes, the more expensive its maintenance becomes. Especially when global car companies officially do not supply original spare parts to Russia.
Russia's automotive industry "is sinking into a state of technological conservation on the Iranian model, and in a number of indicators - even on the Soviet model of prolonged backwardness", notes Vakhtang Partsvania, a professor of management at Caucasus University in Tbilisi, Georgia. "With the restriction of imports (by further increasing the ecotax - ed. note), the choice for Russian buyers will narrow, and a limited range of domestic models in the low and middle price segments will remain on the market", he summarizes.
Author: Oleg Loginov