Lidiya Yordanova, owner and manager of a sociological agency " "Exact Research Group", in an interview for "Focus" "This is Bulgaria"
I suggest you start your comment from the early national vote data. How far does the disappointment go with the events, especially in recent weeks?
In this study, we tried to make some points about the pre-election situation, about the way Bulgarians look at the political events in the country. First of all, I want to note that 78% of the people who participated in our research approve of holding elections according to the "2 in 1" formula. Apart from the fact that, according to them, this is financially more profitable, they also believe that this way more voters will be mobilized to participate in the vote. As for the disappointment of the Bulgarians with the political reality in our country, which has escalated in the last few months, it will indeed prove decisive for the upcoming vote. As many as 91% of those interviewed share the statement that most Bulgarians are disgusted by the political events in our country recently.
It is quite logical in such a situation to ask people what, according to them, the activity of the upcoming parliamentary elections will be: higher, lower or the same as that of the previous parliamentary elections from April 2023. Two-thirds of participants in our current study believe that activity will be lower. Only 20% admit that the activity could be higher. These are mostly middle-aged people and residents of small towns in the country. Who wins and who loses from the early parliamentary elections coming up on June 9 is also one of the important questions in our research. Nearly 45% of Bulgarians believe that GERB is more likely to gain from going to early elections. And those who do not share such an assessment are twice as few. The picture is quite different when it comes to PP-DB – 9% of those interviewed say that the PP-DB would rather gain from going to early elections, while 56% do not think so.
Since most of the questions point to the PP-DB coalition, what processes does your research capture in it?
Our research captures a distinct shift in attitudes within this coalition. We register a slight increase in sympathy for DB and an almost proportional contraction of sympathy for PP. Moreover, we found that the DB is expanding its influence mainly among young voters, as well as among the residents of the capital.
One of the most important questions regarding the attitudes before the vote was whether, according to the Bulgarians, it is possible, after the elections on June 9, that GERB-SDS and PP-DB will partner in some form in the governance of the country. The results show that public opinion is highly disoriented and wavering and there is no overwhelming answer. 38% say "Yes, it is possible“, 26% say "No, it is not possible“ and as many as 37% do not commit to an opinion because they do not know what they can expect from these two coalitions after the vote.
What are the electoral attitudes about the early elections on June 9?
I will give you a few figures that relate only to those who have said they will vote in the upcoming election. So: among the voting Bulgarians, the electoral share of GERB-SDS is 25.9, the electoral share of PP-DB is 16.4, the electoral share of DPS is 14%, the electoral share of "Vazrazhdane” is 13.8, BSP has an electoral share of 9.6%, and "There is such a people” from 5.2. Other parties - smaller parties, including new ones, other than those mentioned, which have been represented in parliament so far, collectively receive nearly 8%, and the so-called The "square", which has attracted the attention of commentators in recent years, once again has a non-negligible share of 7.4%.
The data I presented are as of April 18, well before the start of the election campaign itself.
Ms. Yordanova, since three parties have a difference within the statistical error, these are PP-DB, DPS and "Vazrazhdane“, do you assume based on the analysis of your results that the ranking after the vote can it be changed?
I don't just allow, but I am obliged to allow for purely professional reasons. As you correctly noted, the difference between second, third and fourth place is within the margin of statistical error, which in such demographic surveys amounts to +/- 3%. That is why it is absolutely impossible to be categorical with such data about who will be second, who third and who fourth. It can be seen that some parties currently have a slightly higher result than others, but this is far from a sufficient guarantee of maintaining this result until the end of the campaign. I would say that one thing is certain: in the race for the parliamentary vote, GERB enters with the first result, which stands at a serious distance from the others in the electoral ranking. In my opinion, this distance can hardly be overcome within the campaign.
Does it mean that in the absence of high turnout, hard electorates are the main party reserve? And if so, which parties or coalitions will have the best chance?
The solid electorates of the parties will definitely be the main players in the upcoming parliamentary vote. In the battle between the hard electoral cores, GERB-SDS is the undisputed favorite to win. DPS and "Vazrazhdane" also have strong positions, slightly weaker BSP and PP-DB. Party discipline, response to party orders, motivation to vote will play a very important role in the battle. Outside the hard party cores, it is very important to mention that a very serious protest vote is taking shape, for which different political formations will fight.
Where is he going?
"Revival“ in the past years it managed to include and incorporate a large part of this protest vote. At the time of "Revival” it will be more difficult, since new political entities are emerging in the left and right political space, which will obviously rely not only on the votes of disappointed left and right voters, but at the same time will send messages to Bulgarians who exercise a typical protest vote. The new parties will look for resources among those who do not vote, among those who vote in protest, and among those who say they do not support anyone and feel the need to say so at the polls. It is very difficult for me to commit to a position at the moment on whether the new political entities on the left or those on the right have a better chance of fighting for a place in the next parliament, but I assure you that we will make a research effort to let's answer this question in the advanced phase of the campaign.
On the left, four lists are emerging to fight for the support of voters with left-wing convictions. Did you catch your research, what picture is obtained, will not these sheets neutralize each other?
Our research cannot provide authoritative information about political sympathies for each of these formations. We currently collect only reliable information about BSP. And what I can categorically state is that the BSP is not currently experiencing any dramatic ebb and flow of its electorate compared to the previous parliamentary elections, which means that emerging left-wing formations are probably aiming at some more specific targets . This will become clear at the beginning of the campaign when we hear their speeches and their messages. I would like to briefly summarize the topic of new political formations on the left and on the right in just one sentence: there is a chance that at least one new formation will enter the next parliament.
You can see how large the percentages are of those who indicated that they would vote for "another party", as well as of those who replied with "I don't support anyone". I claim that there is a chance that at least one new formation will be included in the new composition of the parliament. Of course, it is not possible for me to commit to a definite opinion from now on whether this new formation will be located in the left or in the right political space. And maybe I should add a few more words about the activity of the upcoming elections. At the moment, it is impractical to talk with specific percentages about the activity, since the declarations of the interviewed persons in time outside the election campaign rarely overlap with the actual activity.
That is why, let me just mention our current data on the turnout of the Eurovote and the parliamentary elections – it amounts to around 45-47%, with the lower figure describing the declared turnout for the Euro vote and the slightly higher -47% describing the declared turnout for the parliamentary vote. I think it is reasonable to give sociological data on expected turnout at the very end of the campaign.
Apparently from your research, Bulgarians are Euro-oriented, but why do they show little interest in the European elections and the Euro vote?
45% of Bulgarians state that they sometimes vote in European elections, and 30% of our compatriots say that whenever there is a European vote, they vote. 25% indicate that they are not in the habit of voting in European elections at all.
You know that in 2019 the turnout was 33%, so the 30% who in our current research answer that they always vote in European elections are probably sincere. But let me answer your question specifically. The interest in the European Parliament is the interest of people with a good life perspective, of people who are not marginalized. Our data show that interest is shown by young and educated people living in the capital and in the big cities of the country, members and sympathizers mainly of PP-DB, GERB, to a large extent DPS, and about 2/3 of ITN voters. Our research is very rich and I cannot afford to go into many details now, but it is more important to answer the question: what does our data show, what is the cause of this interest of Bulgarians in the work of the EP at the moment.
The main reason why there has been a growing interest in the work of European institutions in recent months is because of the need for people to follow European security policies. People in our country are worried about their security and rely on European structures and institutions to work in such a way as to guarantee the security of Bulgaria in the conditions of military conflicts, one of which is not far from our borders.
How will the leading political forces allocate seats for the European Parliament? What picture can we expect after the vote on June 9?
The results of the Euro vote are shaping up to be not much different from t © Exact languages for the parliamentary elections. But still, I would answer this question after the lists of most of the parties are announced and after, of course, the campaign begins and people get concrete impressions of the participants in the race. The answer to this question also depends on how much the campaign for the Euro vote itself will be able to actively come into the public's attention and whether it will not be defaced by ongoing scandals and actions in domestic politics. That is why I would like to mention that our politicians in the last two or three years have started to believe that they are getting another chance soon to fix things that somehow they have not started.
This is the reason that lately our politicians are not working at full speed, chasing temporary and short-term goals, the effect of which is not quickly felt by the people or, if it is felt, it is quickly forgotten. Frequent elections, testing of various assemblies and coalitions, accusations of who prevents whom from fulfilling their program – all this shifts society's agenda beyond recognition and aggresses people. While our politicians allow themselves the luxury of experimenting, playing blows "below the waist" to each other, people feel isolated and abandoned. And I think that in these elections we will be able to answer the question: how this feeling of abandonment will find expression in the vote.
Does your research capture how mediocrity in politics is becoming the norm and imposing a benchmark for all areas of our public life?
This is an occasion for a very large study, which should be done not only by sociologists, but also by psychologists, folk psychologists and even historians. Very nice, very important topic. In any case, demographic studies cannot give a thorough answer to this question. We really, trying not to slide on the surface, come to some important conclusions, but in most cases these conclusions are related to immediate events and have a rather empirical character. In general, the political strategies we observe daily achieve this by constantly blurring the question of responsibility for governance.
We see how since yesterday there has been a permanent political campaign, which is centered around the question: who is responsible, what is he responsible for, who is irresponsible, who broke the "assembly", who fixed it, etc. , and recently the question of who should enter the next "assembly” is constantly on the agenda. So the game of "assembles“ creates occasions for permanent compromises between the parties. And here it is worth commenting on the last unpleasant event in the parliament from a few days ago, when the speaker of the Bulgarian National Assembly was overthrown – this confirms the intention of the parties to overcome floating majorities and demonstrate strength. Such a tone, which is demonstrated on the eve of an election campaign, definitely does not portend working formulas of governance and good decisions after the elections, whatever assurances the leaders of the leading parties give us in recent days.
Where will the "assemblage" trend take us?
I have always been amazed when I present our data to politicians, and often in their comments, as a counterpoint to our data, there is the line "Well, there will be another election soon”. This is very worrying, this is very serious, because there are people who think that everything is fixable. You can't live ad hoc, you can't manage ad hoc, you can't wait for a reform session every year, even twice a year, to get the politicians things, and the population to fall into deeper and deeper isolation. This strategy of neglecting the public interest will sooner or later be punished with a red card.
How will the activism for the Eurovote and the other, for the national early elections, interact, will one not literally displace, even erase the other?
In general, I have already mentioned that there is no small danger that the European vote will be put on the back burner due to the early parliamentary elections and the many scandalous internal political topics and inter-party clashes. The "2 in 1" election formula, which I have already said that Bulgarians massively support, will seek to correct the looming lower turnout of the Eurovote and increase it as much as possible. Only that we have to keep in mind that it is a task with increased complexity given that the parliamentary elections are not expected to have a high turnout either.
In conclusion: what are the conclusions of your research? What picture do your results paint of Bulgaria today?
It may seem strange to someone, but after all the data that I have presented to you, I dare to say that despite the dynamic political situation, full of many events, scandals and confrontations, there is no dramatic change in public attitudes, there is no dramatic change and in the electoral shares of the main political parties that were present in the parliament until yesterday. Electoral attitudes remain stable because they come mostly from the hard cores. It is normal for someone who is now leaving power to reap a little more negativity than others. So I wouldn't say there are any serious surprises. Rather, the big question mark is how the negative attitude towards politicians and politics from recent years and especially from recent months will be projected on the vote and in what direction the protest vote will be oriented. For me, this is the most serious question and the key to the denouement.