Israel moves ahead with plans for ground offensive in Rafah despite breakdown in ceasefire talks. Why is this city so important to the Israeli army? And will the civilian population be protected?
Since early February, Israel has been discussing a possible military offensive against Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Now it may become a reality: The Israeli army has ordered the residents of the eastern part of Rafah to leave the city. About 100,000 people are affected. According to the Israeli army, it will be a "limited operation" aimed at destroying Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization by the West and some Arab countries. It is believed that there are still hostages in the city.
At the same time, the Islamist movement Hamas has agreed to a proposal for a cease-fire in the war in Gaza, presented by mediators Egypt and Qatar. Until Wednesday evening, however, it remained unclear exactly which points Hamas had agreed to.
According to Israeli media reports, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir dismissed the Hamas deal as a "trick". The army explained that the civilians were supposed to go to the Al-Mawasi area near the coast, about 20 km north of Rafah. There is an "extended humanitarian zone" with field hospitals, tents and food.
According to "Wall Street Journal" Israel intends to carry out the ground offensive in stages, and the evacuation could take two to three weeks. Some time ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that it would take about six weeks of "continuous fighting" for the operation.
Earlier, talks with Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners failed. News agencies report that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant has said that military action is now necessary and that there is no other alternative. However, Israel's allies such as the US have warned against taking an offensive. Hundreds of thousands of refugees from other areas of Gaza live in the overcrowded city, and the situation for the local population is already catastrophic.
What is the current situation in Rafah?
Today over 80% of the population of the Gaza Strip are refugees - a large part of them are the so-called internal refugees. 1.4 million people out of a total population of 2.3 million have taken refuge in Rafah after the Israeli forces captured the northern part of the Gaza Strip. This made Rafah the most populated city in the Gaza Strip at the moment.
Refugee camps in the Rafah area are overcrowded, lacking food, medicine and drinking water. The American development agency USAID describes the humanitarian situation as extremely bad. In the southern part of the Gaza Strip, almost a quarter of the population suffers from a catastrophic lack of food. Children are particularly affected.
Why is Rafah so important to Israel?
Rafah is believed to be the last major base of the Islamist terrorist group Hamas, which carried out a terrorist attack in Israel on October 7 last year and kidnapped 240 people in the Gaza Strip as hostages.
Israel suggests that up to four of the former 24 Hamas brigades are still hiding in Rafah or in tunnels in the city. In this way, the operation in Rafah is a decisive step towards the liquidation of the organization.
After several months of war with Israel, Hamas' fighting power has been weakened, but the terrorist group has not been defeated militarily. Although the number of rocket attacks against Israel has dropped sharply, the organization still has many missiles and drones at its disposal. Observers estimate that Israel has so far destroyed 70% to 80% of Hamas' weapons arsenal.
How does Israel plan to protect the civilian population in Rafah?
It is unclear how the already suffering population of Gaza will be supplied in the event of a ground offensive. As allies warned of catastrophe, an Israeli army spokesman said humanitarian aid deliveries to the population would continue unimpeded during the evacuation. They can be delivered to the coastal strip by various routes, for example through the Israeli port of Ashdod, 30 km north of the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, the US has almost completed a temporary port in the northern Gaza Strip, which should greatly facilitate supplies to the civilian population. It is expected to start functioning by the beginning of May.
Creating a functioning infrastructure for hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons, however, requires a coordinated effort by multiple actors. This process, involving humanitarian organizations, UN agencies and donor countries, could take several more weeks. Most aid now reaches the camps through the Rafah border crossing.
What are the reactions
Hamas spoke of a "dangerous escalation that will have consequences". Israel claims that Hamas has already trained its fighters and provided them with supplies and weapons. Meanwhile, the US continues to hope for a peaceful solution. According to a media release, CIA Director William Burns wants to work toward an agreement. Months ago, the US sharply criticized plans for a ground offensive against Rafah. The German Foreign Ministry also warned of a "humanitarian catastrophe".
Egypt fears that many refugees from Rafah may cross into Egypt's Sinai. According to the Egyptian state news channel "Al-Qahera" the attack by Hamas on the Israeli border crossing "Kerem Shalom"; would bring the negotiations to an impasse. The TV channel cited an unnamed senior source. According to this source, the negotiators would try to contain the escalation.