Senior Biden administration officials are concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin has prepared more surprises for them regarding Ukraine, designed to frustrate and derail the seventy-fifth anniversary of the NATO summit in Washington from July 9 to 11, writes the Atlantic Council.
"He wants nothing more than to rain on our parade,", a senior US official said recently. Some administration officials are considering potential scenarios and possible responses, though it's hard to focus entirely on Ukraine because of the war in the Middle East and so much else going on.
There is a wide range of possibilities. For example, Putin could launch an even fiercer and larger-scale summer military offensive in Ukraine than the one currently underway. He can launch new weapons. At the same time, he may offer a more assertive (but still disingenuous) peace proposal or cease-fire effort designed primarily to appeal to world opinion, even as NATO members give Ukraine more military weight.
Given Putin's past behavior around major global events, a summer surprise would seem, well, not so surprising. Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia was timed to coincide with the Summer Olympics in Beijing; her 2014 invasion of Ukraine took place during the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia; and his second invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 followed a meeting between Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics that year.
Besides Putin's penchant for the spotlight at such times, there are other reasons to worry that this could be a summer of maximum peril for Ukraine and, by extension, the NATO alliance just days before the Republican and The Democratic Party in the United States .
Putin seems determined, although his position is not enviable. Over the course of several weeks, the US Congress finally approved its major aid package and several countries agreed that Ukraine could use their weapons to target military sites in Russia. Meanwhile, France is rapidly developing an initiative to deploy soldiers as trainers to Ukraine. But there is no evidence that any of this has persuaded Putin to reconsider his aggressive plans for Ukraine. Instead, he appears to have decided he must redouble his offensive this summer before more US military equipment arrives. Ukraine's air defenses will remain vulnerable for many more weeks.
There is no slowing of Russia's ongoing offensive around Kharkiv - even as there has been little to no forward movement for weeks - and Putin's relentless attacks on Ukraine's energy sources and infrastructure continue to cause significant damage. The Kremlin still has significant reserves that could be sent to the Kharkiv offensive, to expand the so far unsuccessful Donbas campaign to capture Chasov Yar, or to launch a new offensive north to Sumy.
Besides these reservations, there are other factors encouraging Putin. Kiev continues to face shortages, largely due to a culture that believes young men should not be mobilized before their late twenties. The Zelenskyi administration and the Rada recently took a step to solve this problem by lowering the conscription age by two years to twenty-five, but this politically difficult decision does not solve the problem of excessive use of front-line troops.
Putin is also taking comfort from his re-election in March and his two-day meeting with Xi in Beijing last month. At the same time, he should view the Gaza crisis and the US election campaign as a welcome distraction for the US leadership. That's why a senior American official told me that Putin has some confidence.
At the age of seventy-one, Putin has consolidated his power in Russia, with official results showing he won 87 percent of the vote in March, a result he has used to further justify his war on Ukraine. His new six-year term, if he completes it, would see him surpass Joseph Stalin as Russia's longest-serving leader in two centuries. The subtext: The world will have to deal with an emboldened Russia for the foreseeable future.
Putin's meeting with Xi in May underscored the Chinese leader's determination to redouble his support for his Russian counterpart. Xi is doing so despite growing criticism from the US and Europe and increased leaks regarding the specifics of how China is enabling and empowering Russia's ongoing war.
Speaking of the war in Ukraine, Putin thanked Xi for "these initiatives he is proposing to regulate this problem". Putin said: "This partnership is undoubtedly an example of how relations between neighboring countries should be.
"The relationship between China and Russia today is hard-won, and both sides should cherish and maintain it,", Xi said.
US President Joe Biden's recent moves to loosen restrictions on Ukraine's use of US weapons to strike targets in Russia would have raised more concerns in Russia were it not for the limited nature of the lifted zone-only restrictions in Russia, from which the eastern city of Kharkiv was hit.
During his speech commemorating the eightieth anniversary of D-Day last week, Biden made a direct connection between the fight against fascism in World War II and the war in Ukraine. He said the United States was "not going to back out" from the conflict. "Because if we do," he explained, "Ukraine will be conquered and it won't end there. Ukraine's neighbors will be threatened. All of Europe will be in danger.
Yet Russia's experience shows that Biden's rhetoric is tougher than his willingness to provide American weapons in a way that would increase Ukraine's chances not only of survival, but of victory.
Putin may also be reassured by Biden's continued reluctance to support Ukraine's NATO membership, reiterated in a recent TIME magazine interview with the US president. Biden's comments opposing, in his words, the "NATOization of Ukraine" are a preemptive move by the US president ahead of the upcoming NATO summit. Alliance members are likely to provide a "bridge" to NATO for Ukraine, but not a time-bound path to full membership and with it the security guarantee that has proven its worth for allies bordering Russia.
The same Biden administration officials who worry about a summer surprise hope that Ukrainian forces can hold their defensive lines against the Russians in 2024 and then launch a new military offensive in 2025 with replenished supplies of ammunition and soldiers. Then Ukraine can regain enough territory to improve its position in the negotiations.
The best way to respond - better yet, prevent - any potential Putin summer surprise would be by surprising NATO itself at the summit, one that demonstrates a level of unity and purpose that would forced Putin to rethink his ambitions in Ukraine. One such surprise could be a more clearly defined and outlined Ukrainian path to membership in the Alliance, which would show Putin that he cannot block that outcome through continued war. Another would be to remove all restrictions on the use of weapons by the US and other allies from Ukraine, removing once and for all any safe haven for Russian aggressors.
It is time for Ukraine's friends, at this moment of maximum danger, to steal the initiative from Putin through policies and practices that shake his credibility and restore Ukrainian momentum.
Wishing remains an inadequate strategy for defeating Putin.