Information has leaked that the "Zhelyazkov" cabinet is already ready and that the PP-DB are "out". For now, it is not clear whether this is a real plan and not just a staged event. But let's exclude the second option for a moment and see what can be expected.
Comment by Daniel Smilov:
Donald Trump's victory in the US resonated in a special way in Bulgaria: with a heightened feeling in some circles that anything is now possible. This feeling only grows stronger as Trump surprises the world with something every day: Panama will be taken over by the US, Greenland will be bought, but without ruling out the use of military force in the "deal". Even Canada is not safe, and its prime minister was demoted to "governor" by Trump's team.
This absurd global backdrop also ignited the Bulgarian political imagination. Some supported the ambitions of the newly elected American president and granted him both Panama and Greenland. But only if, as compensation for this global extravagance, Bulgaria received at least Macedonia, and why not something else.
The more modest or less crazy ones, in the chaos, began to assemble a coalition of GERB, BSP and ITN with support from APS. Information leaked to media close to GERB and "New Beginning" that the new government "Zhelyazkov" is already ready and that PP-DB are finally "out" of it.
If this plan for governance is real
It is not clear to what extent this is a real plan for governance, and not another act of a theatrical production leading to early elections. But let's exclude the second option for a moment:
1. This plan for governing the minority (GERB-BSP-ITN) with support from APS, but without official support from Peevski or "Vazrazhdane", is not irrational, especially against the global background described above. In the end, neither Panama nor Greenland will suffer from it, and Macedonia and Bessarabia have nothing to worry about. The reputation of the participants in this coalition will not deteriorate either, because there is nowhere else to go anyway. The fact that they said they would not participate in a joint government with each other is not a problem in democracy - before elections, that's what they say, and after the elections, the parties must also take into account the will of the voter. The coalition will also be balanced in terms of reputational damage: it is very difficult to say whether their joint actions will damage the reputation of ITN more than that of GERB or vice versa. The same is true for both the BSP and the APS;
2. GERB will breathe a sigh of relief that they do not have to sign anything that would require the isolation of "New Beginning" when voting on regulators and other appointments, as well as in other important parliamentary decisions. Peevski will not be needed in a vote of no confidence, but his participation in other decisions will be guaranteed, at least through the GERB quota, which will be much larger in this government than in a quadruple coalition with the PP-DB. That is, the ideal option for Borisov is being realized, in which both Peevski is officially out of government, and everything will be decided by the familiar tandem together;
3. APS - Dogan's party - may agree to act as a fig leaf, but the price for this will be high. Ultimately, for such an arrangement to work, Peevski and Dogan will have to come to an agreement at some point. This may seem impossible now, but we should not forget that after Trump, everything is allowed - or at least many in our country think so. And Borisov will be happy to reconcile the clans like a capo to some capos;
4. PP-DB will not be unhappy with such a development. It will relieve the pressure on them to enter a coalition in which they are unwanted and which will do everything possible to boycott their ideas. It became clear that Borisov would rather openly team up with Dogan and the BSP than seriously consider parting ways with Peevski. In fact, what the PP-DB wanted from him was a written declaration that he would make attempts to part ways with Peevski - but apparently that turned out to be too much. The GERB alliance with the ITN and the BSP relieves everyone of the tension and returns them to their normal roles;
5. The PP-DB and especially the PP will be very vulnerable in this situation, because all the clubs of our, oh my, legal state will be mobilized against them - and they have already been activated with a bunch of insane accusations against the leaders of the PP. Soon, the clubs will be overused (it is already being overused) and Bulgarian society will face the dilemma of whether to defend political normality or to put up with violence. "A new beginning" will bet on the second, and GERB will remain silent and "will not interfere" in the "independent" judiciary;
6. In order for the new assembly to be initially acceptable, Sarafov can be sacrificed on its altar according to the "Geshev" model;
7. "Vazrazhdane" will be in a good position, because they will both be in "opposition" to the government (just as Zhirinovsky was in opposition to Putin), and their theses will sound quite loudly from the mouths of those in power - and not only from the ITN and BSP;
8. President Radev will receive a reprieve to finish his term. From his point of view, the new assembly will be weak and vulnerable and it will fall like a ripe pear when he decides to enter parliamentary politics towards the end of his term;
9. The new assembly will initially generate some trust, mainly because people are tired of new and new elections (seven parliamentary votes in four years are already a form of political idiocy, which does not need to be confirmed by an eighth vote);
10. The new government will also be able to consume the positives of membership in the eurozone, which is very likely, as well as the general economic health of the country. All the talk about severe fiscal problems is actually just purposefully misleading chatter. The truth is that the rulers will be in a very luxurious situation - having a lot of money, they can decide what to spend it on. And the money is a lot even with reasonable spending, for which the unjustifiably inflated expenditure parts of the budget submitted by the caretaker government will simply have to be cut.
A serious danger
At first glance, it seems that the fall of global inhibitions with the second coming of Trump has not had a very dramatic impact on the Bulgarian political imagination. Apart from the expected madness of wanting Macedonia, the old desire for a half-disguised Borisov-Peevski government remains. Let it be a hair-raising, as they say.
There is also a more serious danger, however. A partisan bacchanalia is slowly taking hold in Bulgaria, in which those in power slaughter and hang and confuse democracy with the lowest desires of the majority. A bacchanalia in which homophobia and xenophobia are confused with patriotism, and greed with rationality. We haven't gotten there yet, but hopefully the new assembly won't lead us in that direction.
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This comment expresses the author's personal opinion and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the DG as a whole.