Boyko Borisov is sad. He is concerned that Bulgaria may be left without a Euro-Atlantic government and deviate from its true path. And he should have a guilty conscience. Isn't it time to stop with this hypocrisy and fakeness?
Boyko Borisov is sad. He is concerned that the country could be left without a Euro-Atlantic government and deviate from its true path. He should have a guilty conscience that he himself ruined the "Denkov" government. and failed the rotation with Maria Gabriel in order to be in a better negotiating position after another election. However, it is more likely that this is not exactly what bothers him.
The problem is that "the most tears are shed for dreams come true," as Truman Capote said. In Borisov's theater, a tearful scene about the future of Bulgaria, mixed with "fair" anger of the protagonist against PP-DB, who do not want to enter his government.
But isn't it time to stop with this hypocrisy and fakeness? It is not decent to criticize someone for anything, to conduct your entire campaign against him, and finally to want him to govern with you, and to brag about the achievements of joint governance.
How Borisov contemplates saving himself from the mess he got himself into
In principle, in this parliament PP-DB neither can nor does it make sense to govern with GERB and DPS. First, GERB-DPS have a majority with ITN or other parties on all important issues. The presence of PP-DB in the management would be a mere formality - they would be the fifth wheel in a stilted, but still functioning construction. Second, their participation will not "wash" Borisov and Peevski, despite the talk in this direction, but it can further tarnish the PP-DB. They will be a badge on the lapel of a government that has a heavy corruption baggage. The last bulky denk of this baggage came in the form of a BGN 150 million unserviced loan from BBR for Rumen Gaitanski-Valka (friend of Borisov, Peevski and Dogan). The state will get back about 7 million of this money under good circumstances. If he is a beneficiary of such loans, how can one not support the management of GERB-DPS!
The sad Borisov is considering saving himself from the mess he got himself into with even more recent elections. He will again go around the country explaining how PP-DB cannot govern. And how only he with DPS, but without officially being with them, can fix things. If such a campaign wins voters again, it could be patented as a sure-fire test for brain atrophy.
Instead of lamenting and devising clever schemes to transfer the responsibility for governance to someone else, Borissov should seriously start thinking about a government. There have already been some consultations with DPS and ITN, from which it became clear that ITN do not want to support a government unless it is "expert" and with their mandate.
However, it was not clear whether there are any political contradictions between ITN and GERB-DPS. Something has crept in about delaying the membership of the eurozone, but without it being an official request of the ITN. At least on the basis of their previous participation in parliaments and governments, there is no visible area in which the three parties have significant differences. Of course, if the ITNs are just looking for an excuse not to participate in government, they can always come up with something. But so far at least they haven't been able to come up with it.
(Points should be given for the creativity of ITN and especially Slavi Trifonov for his claim that he refuses to participate in a government with GERB and DPS in order to overthrow political scientists and analysts who saw him as the most logical participant in it If this argument prevails, Bulgaria will be the first country in the world to go to the polls to defy political scientists with their predictions.)
ITN behavior: three readings
There are currently three readings of ITN behavior.
Negotiation-transactional: ITN see that they are a natural participant in a majority with GERB and DPS, they know that without them it will be difficult for Borisov to form a majority, and that is why they raise their price in the negotiations. What's more: the more independent ITNs seem, the more rigid they are in their demands, the more useful they are for Borisov and Peevski - the two will be able to say that they are not the only ones managing in tandem, but there is also a third independent player who at the same time, he is very wayward.
People will start to feel sorry for Borisov and Peevski that they have found such an impossible partner, compared to whom even PP-DB are preferable. "The long-suffering Boyko" will run on the screens, ITNs will accumulate antipathies (and they can do that), which will increase sympathy for the "system parties" GERB and DPS and their even more systematic leaders.
This is a win-win situation: ITN - material responsibilities in the form of ministries, and GERB-DPS - the impression that they have acquired an independent partner who limits them in their political actions.
Presidential-campaign: ITNs may simply campaign for new elections. If they sided with President Radev as a whole, which is not excluded, they can act as a detonator of the party system. With new elections in the fall, no one can say what will happen. DPS may be the first party with even lower activity, GERB may melt with another hundred thousand and open up a giant space for new and old greats. The implosion of the party system could be an argument for President Radev to want a presidential republic.
The ITN - with the proposals to form a government - would guarantee themselves some place in the next parliament and could even use the argument again that they are working against GERB and DPS (and not only against PP-DB, as before).
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Expert cabinet: ITN may have judged that GERB and DPS are in a tough enough situation to accept an expert cabinet (whatever that means) with the third mandate. This seems like a sub-variant of the first scenario, but it is more ambitious than it. Here, ITNs will aim not just for a place in the administration, but will also want to dictate its policies.
ITN will naturally not reveal which option they have chosen, and they may not have made a choice yet. But the existence of these three options puts them in a good negotiating position and is a real reason for Borisov's sadness. Peevski, however, does not believe in tears and, like nothing, can try more direct methods of convincing potential partners. If, for example, the prosecution is activated unexpectedly, this would be a signal of serious progress in the negotiation process.
If GERB, DPS and ITN do not understand
This is the situation at the moment and it doesn't even talk about what a new government would rule. There is no talk of a program, nor of general decision-making principles, let alone a coalition agreement, which was generously promised by Borissov before the elections. In fact, between the GERB variant - "government of shared responsibility" - and that of ITN ("expert government") has no particular contradiction. The important thing is actually what will be the majority behind these governments. The big difference would be between two options: floating majorities and negotiated majorities between specific parties. This is the first question that needs to be clarified.
The fact that President Radev and Prime Minister Glavchev will go together to the NATO summit demonstrates that some negotiations between GERB and ITN to form a government are already underway. It is also a sign that if it is drawn up, it will be Euro-Atlantic, but not quite.
In general, unfortunately for the whole country, elections are not out of the question. But there is still a clear responsibility for forming a governing majority, and it falls on parties that have had similar policies and behavior in previous parliaments. And these are GERB, DPS and ITN. If they don't agree, it's good to at least make it clear what they didn't agree about.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and of DV as a whole.