I'm afraid that Western analysts are too optimistic about Ukraine's advance in Kursk Oblast. Because one should not ignore that basic Russian mentality, of which Putin is today's spokesman. By Evgeny Dainov:
I am afraid that Ukrainian and Western analysts are too optimistic about the Ukrainian advance in the Russian Kursk region. The dominant narrative is that the Russians will want to negotiate on the principle: give back ours and we'll give back yours.
But this will not happen, as it does not correspond to that basic Russian mentality, of which Putin is the spokesman today.
Russia has no borders: why it is so
When Vladimir Putin says that Russia has no borders - that is exactly what he means. There are two options here. "We have no borders" means that at any moment we can attack a neighboring country to expand them, such as Georgia and Ukraine. But "we have no borders" also means that if the Russians lose their own territories, it does not concern them. Big deal, they say. We lose the Kursk (Belgorod, Bryansk, Ryazan, etc.) region - so what? We have no boundaries. Locals - to get better as they can. If they weren't there. We don't care. Like we don't care how many of our men die on the front. Big deal. We have more.
In this case, Putin is more Lenin than Stalin, who still has feelings for his territory. Despite opposition from his own party, in 1918 Lenin signed the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which gave Germany and its allies vast Russian territories and resources. Big job, says Lenin. The important thing is to keep power in the center, and we will regain the lost territory at the first favorable opportunity. How many will die? It's their business. We have more.
I have spoken with many experts and officials who worked with Russians in various international organizations. All of them were shocked to tell me their conclusion: the Russians are not a sedentary people. They are still ruggers. Today they are crucifying the cross here and it is theirs. Tomorrow they go somewhere else and then it becomes theirs. The most extreme was an extremely discouraged official who tried without success to get the Russians into some international treaties for more than a decade: "The Russians have not reached the stage of agrarian settlement. Crookedly they live in some villages, but in their heads they have remained at the level of hunting and gathering".
It is known that among non-sedentary peoples the state is where the ruler has pitched his tent at the moment. For Putin, it makes no difference whether his tent is in Rostov, Moscow, Yekaterinburg or Barnaul. As long as there is a tent - there is Russia. What does a Kursk, Belgorod or Bryansk mean here, for God's sake? And we will give Moscow, as we gave it to Napoleon - and we will still be there.
While I was writing this text, on Russian television channels, the regime's propaganda mouthpieces were already launching to their audience of millions the thesis that the three Russian regions bordering northern Ukraine should be abandoned: "Look at the map. Look how much more land we have without these three areas.
Putin will sincerely laugh at anyone who offers him negotiations of the type "we give you back yours - give us ours". He already said it: no negotiations, for anything. But in all his speeches since the beginning of the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region, he never once mentioned that there were atomic bombs - something he did almost every week for years.
What is the conclusion? First: no loss of his own territory will impress him, because he has not reached that evolutionary level where a man cares about the land in which he is rooted. It is no accident that there has never been private ownership of land in Russia. Never. Think about it. And second: Putin won't be tossing nukes around - something that would dramatically shorten the duration of the war due to the inevitably crushing Western response.
It will be "seriously and for a long time". But there is also good news.
So, in order to put an end to this outrage, Russia must be defeated on the battlefield by conventional means, and Putin must be overthrown by traditional Russian means.
This means that this job is a long game. It won't be resolved today or tomorrow. It will be, in the words of Lenin from 1921, "seriously and for a long time".
That's the bad news. The good thing is that in the end, after a long time, when this outrage ends with a military defeat and the collapse of the Russian Federation, we will enjoy some 70-90 years, in which no danger will arise from the Russian steppes for the civilized world. While in this subordinate position, the Russians themselves may decide to become civilized. This is what Germany, Japan and Italy did after 1945. And I don't see them being unhappy about it.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and of DV as a whole.