A televised interview by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on Russian state television against Armenia's westward turn on August 21 caused outrage and protests in Yerevan, described by the authorities in Minsk as an “act of vandalism”.
Before the Russian media, Lukashenko asked rhetorically: “Who needed the Armenians? To no one. Let them develop their economy and rely on their own resources. What is France? Who is (French President Emmanuel) Macron? Tomorrow, when Macron is gone, everyone will forget about the Armenians.
In response, protesters gathered outside the Belarusian embassy in Yerevan and threw eggs and other food items at the building. The next day, Belarusian MP Aleg Gaidukevich said, quoted by "Kyiv Independent News Desk”: “No one has done so much for the welfare of the Armenian people, for peace in the Armenian land, as the Belarusians.
Gaidukevich concluded that “this act of vandalism that was carried out is outrageous, it is unacceptable. The perpetrators must bear legal responsibility“.
The leader of the Belarusian opposition, Svetlana Tikhanovska, also condemned what Lukashenko said and indicated that she “categorically condemns the outrageous insults directed at Armenia and the Armenian people”. “Dictator Lukashenko betrayed both Belarusians and Armenians, acting on behalf of the Kremlin,” Tikhanovska was categorical.
In June, the publication “Politico“ reported, citing leaked documents, that Belarus has been supplying advanced weapons to Armenia's geopolitical enemy for years – Azerbaijan, despite both Belarus and Armenia being members of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – a military alliance within the Commonwealth of Independent States, operating since 1994.
As noted by the Armenian service of Radio Free Europe, on the day of the protest in Yerevan, the participants also demanded the severance of diplomatic relations with Minsk. The demonstration was organized by the pro-Western Armenian party "In the Name of the Republic", and its leader Arman Babajanyan also came to the Belarusian embassy.
The petition of “In the name of the republic“ for severing relations with Minsk and expelling the Belarusian ambassador, RSE writes, was signed by both the Republic party and the European Party of Armenia. They are joined by three pro-Western NGOs.
RSE recalls that back in May, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that two countries in the CSTO helped Azerbaijan prepare for the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. It is believed that Pashinyan is referring to Russia and Belarus, RSE writes.
Russian-Armenian relations have deteriorated significantly since Azerbaijan managed to regain control of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which had been under ethnic Armenian control for three decades, in September 2023.
Erevan has recently begun seeking closer ties with the West, accusing Moscow of not fulfilling its security commitments to Armenia. On several occasions, Pashinyan has threatened to withdraw Armenia from the CSTO, prompting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to note that the Pashinyan administration is “driving things towards a collapse of Russian-Armenian relations” at the behest of the West.
On June 13, Pashinyan announced, quoted by Reuters, that no Armenian representative would visit Belarus while Lukashenko was in power. Pashinyan also said that Yerevan will leave the CSTO because members of the military bloc planned the war against his country together with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan added that he would change his position if Belarus apologized to Armenia or left the CSTO.
Later that day, Armenia summoned its ambassador to Belarus for consultations, Reuters said, citing the foreign ministry in Yerevan.
Reuters quoted the Armenian prime minister as saying that during his visit to Baku a month earlier, Lukashenko had said that he had participated in the preparation of the war against Armenia in 2020 and wanted Azerbaijan to win.
In a February interview for “France 24” Pashinyan said that the CSTO “has not fulfilled its security-related obligations to Armenia”. French media said tensions between Moscow and Yerevan escalated in September 2023, when Baku's offensive to capture the Yerevan-backed separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh triggered the exodus of hundreds of thousands of its Armenian population. Moscow had deployed its peacekeeping mission in the region, whose members left their positions before the attack.
A few days before that, Pashinyan told “Politico” that Moscow's mission had failed and that “as a result of the events in Ukraine, Russia's capacity has changed” and made her less inclined to protect her partners. Pashinyan emphasized that Armenia is now working with the EU and the US to implement numerous democratic reforms and strengthen its democracy.
In October 2023, “Moscow Times“ published Arshak Makichian's article with the title “Armenia, surrounded by enemies, must be brought out of the shadow of Russia”. The author points out that “after the Armenian Genocide and subsequent wars, the independent First Armenian Republic, which had a territory twice the size of the current one, was divided between Turkey and the USSR”. “And today, unfortunately, the heirs of these same empires are acting to resolve the Armenian issue once and for all,”, notes Makichian.
On June 13 this year “Politico“ published Gabriel Gavin's article titled “The Secret Arms Deal That Cost Putin an Ally”. Gavin points out that Belarus has been supplying advanced weapons to arch-enemy Armenia, even though the two countries are supposed to be allies in the CSTO, as evidenced by leaked documents in which the “Politico” have met. These documents shed light on Yerevan's decision to announce that it will withdraw from the military alliance – a dramatic turnaround that will weaken Russian President Vladimir Putin's hold on former Soviet republics, Politico analyzes.
And the decision of Belarus – staunch supporter of Russia, to make arms deliveries to Azerbaijan between 2018 and 2022, helping it gain an advantage in wars with its long-time rival, has been seen as a bitter disappointment by Armenia, according to “Politico”.
The discovered documents include more than a dozen letters, diplomatic notes, sales and export invoices that “Politico” have seen They show that Belarus actively assisted Azerbaijan's armed forces in the period 2018–2022. Services offered included upgrading artillery equipment and providing new electronic warfare equipment and drone control systems.
„Politico“ specifies that among the documents there are also letters from the Belarusian State Agency for Arms Export to military-industrial enterprises in the country for specific orders, as well as correspondence between the two countries for the purchase of “Groza-C“ ("Storm-C") – mobile stations for radio-electronic combat with drones, for the Azerbaijani armed forces.
One of the diplomatic letters states that Belarusian enterprises play an active role in the “restoration of the de-occupied territories of Azerbaijan, as well as the export of Belarusian goods and services to the country”, writes “Politico”.
In fact, following raids by neighboring Azerbaijan on the territory of Armenia itself in September 2022 to seize strategic heights along the border, Yerevan requested the CSTO for support, but the military bloc sent only a fact-finding mission, and then only after the Armenian government makes a request to the EU as well.
Then Pashinyan concluded an agreement to expand the EU monitoring mission along the border with Azerbaijan and invited US troops to joint exercises. In this regard, on March 20, the spokeswoman of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, quoted by TASS, that the EU observer mission in Armenia is spying on Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan. And Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said on July 11 that by cooperating with NATO, Armenia risks destabilizing the situation in the South Caucasus and undermining its own security.
„Politico“ he also draws attention to the fact that, although on documents he is an ally of Armenia, Lukashenko had previously described the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, as “our man” and said that it would be a mistake for the ODKS to oppose him. And Aliyev, according to “Politico”, said in 2022 that “we have more friends in the CSTO than Armenia.
According to experts, however, Belarus could hardly have acted without the tacit support of the Kremlin. “This is eloquent proof that with friends like Vladimir Putin, no one needs enemies,“, believes Ivana Stradner – researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, quoted by “Politico”.
"It is ridiculous to think that these deliveries could have been taking place without Moscow's knowledge and that Russia would not stop them if it wanted to,' Stradner adds.
As far as Moscow is concerned, there is no such thing as loyalty – everything comes down to preserving their own security, even at the expense of their own allies, the researcher summarizes.
As Sylvia Stöber of the German broadcaster ARD notes, Armenia feels betrayed by Russia and wants to emancipate itself from it. At the beginning of August, Stöber points out, the 32-year presence of Russian border guards at Armenia's only international airport was ceremonially ended. Apart from 4,500 border guards, Russia had also provided approximately the same number of soldiers to defend the country.
And Er De writes that from reports of Armenians who escaped from Karabakh, it is clear that Russian soldiers supported the evacuation and disarmament of the local population and did not fulfill their task of protecting them.
Therefore, for many Armenians, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh is not only due to the incompetence of the Armenian military units, they feel betrayed by Russia, for which Azerbaijan is an important economic and strategic partner.
Armenia will be able to free itself from Russia, emphasizes Ah Er De, citing security expert Richard Giragosyan, only in the long term, taking advantage in one way or another of its weaknesses.
Getting Armenia out of Russia's influence may be difficult, reports Arshak Makichyan. There are currently over 100,000 Russians who came to Armenia without visas to escape conscription. However, this Russian influx will raise the cost of living in Armenia and this will change attitudes towards Moscow, Makichyan is convinced.
But Putin still has a set of tools to put pressure on Armenia. So far, Moscow has not used any of them, such as the price for Russian gas supplies. Russia is the most important market for Armenian products, and remains an important labor market for Armenians. Many Armenian families are still surviving thanks to the money that their relatives send them from Russia.
In March this year “Politico“ describes how Armenia's border with Azerbaijan looked at that time – large portrait of Vladimir Putin "watching" from above the road along it, and the slogan “Forever together!“ is placed next to the billboard. Even then, however, the publication emphasized that Armenia was in the midst of a major turnaround, moving away from the Kremlin and looking toward the West. Since Russia's war in Ukraine began, Yerevan has cut ties with Moscow at an unprecedented rate – buys weapons from France and India, hosts military exercises with the US and sends aid to Kiev. And now he is even hinting that he may take steps to join the EU. And Armenia's first diplomat, Ararat Mirzoyan, said that the application for EU membership “is currently being discussed internally” as part of a number of options for the country's turn towards a pro-Western foreign policy, "Politico" recalled in March.