Western Fatigue! The Myth of Russia’s Inevitable Victory is Disintegrating and Putin Understands It

I recently participated in a panel at the Atlantic Council devoted to a question of critical importance: the potential impact of Vladimir Putin’s ongoing disinformation campaign. The main question is this: what are the military facts about the war between Russia and Ukraine, and how do they relate to what is presented to us? The answer is important. Wars are fought not only on battlefields, but also in perceptions and narratives that influence political will and economic expectations. This is what retired US Air Force General and air force expert David Deptula writes for Forbes, reports Focus.

"Putin understands this. His strategy now depends less on decisive battlefield success and more on convincing the world, and the United States in particular, that Russian victory is inevitable; that further support for Ukraine is pointless; and that pragmatic Americans would be wiser to prepare for a profitable normalization rather than a prolonged confrontation,” he notes.

In particular, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaia Kallas, has warned that “the biggest threat Russia poses right now is that it is getting more at the negotiating table than it has achieved on the battlefield.”

“It seems that the inevitability of Russian victory is not a fact. It is just a story. And when you compare it to the reality on the battlefield, that story falls apart. Operationally, Ukraine is holding back Russian ground forces on a front some 1,000 kilometers long. It neutralized Russia’s effective use of the Black Sea and deprived it of its air superiority over Ukrainian-controlled territory – an extraordinary loss for what was considered a modern air force,” Deptula recalls.

According to the expert, at the tactical level Ukraine has a favorable loss ratio, ranging from 2.5:1 to 7:1, and in some battles this ratio is even higher.

"Even when Russian troops advance a few kilometers, they do so with enormous losses. The loss figures highlight two basic realities: first, Russia is willing to pay an extraordinary price in human lives for insignificant territorial gains; "Secondly, time is in Moscow's favor only if Ukraine's defenses are being destroyed faster than Russia's human resources and production base," explains the retired US Air Force general.

Deptula emphasizes that the issue is not only about breakthroughs, but also about endurance, industrial potential and political will. Specifically, Russia promises inevitability, but on the front there is "exhaustion without momentum, losses without advantage and violence without a solution".

At the same time, according to the expert, Ukraine's will is beyond doubt, and the undetermined variable is precisely the determination of the West.