The Russian army advances on Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. If the Russians master it, it will give them an important advantage – to attack and cut off the supply of the Ukrainian army. Can Pokrovsk be saved?
"We are going to Vinnytsia first," says the woman who boards the train to evacuate from Pokrovsk. "We have friends there, but we will look for our own apartment," she explains. "When we heard the explosion at night, we decided – the child cannot stay here any longer."
Like thousands of other residents of Pokrovsk and surrounding towns and villages in eastern Ukraine, the woman and her family delayed evacuating until the last minute. But they no longer have a choice – the front line is now less than ten kilometers from the city. Before the war, 60,000 people lived in Pokrovsk, now the city is becoming more and more empty.
Russian units achieve significant successes in the region
Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that the situation near Pokrovsk is “extremely difficult” - Russia has concentrated a lot of forces there and is subjecting the region to intense attacks.
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The American Institute for the Study of War has confirmed that Russian units continue to score significant tactical successes in the region southeast of Pokrovsk. Many people in the district are wondering whether the city will not follow the fate of Avdeevka and other already conquered nodal settlements in Ukraine.
The strategic importance of Pokrovsk
Pokrovsk is an industrial city in the Donetsk Oblast and is located at the intersection of the most important railway routes that bring supplies to the Ukrainian army. For the locals, it is the “Road of Life”. And indeed - Pokrovsk is an extremely important center from the point of view of logistics – it is the backbone of the Ukrainian defense and the supply for the army from Vuledar to Donetsk in the north, military expert Markus Reisner, a colonel of the Austrian army, told DV.
The rapid advance of Russian units in this region became possible after the fall of Avdeevka. The town in Donbass is 25 km east of Pokrovsk and was captured by Russian troops in February, thanks to those sacrificed as “cannon fodder” thousands of Russian soldiers.
Avdeevka was the fortress that was supposed to protect the settlements, railways and roads in Western Ukraine. Since then, this function was taken over by Pokrovsk. But after the Russians broke through two defensive lines, they are already advancing on the last one, even though it is the most heavily fortified, Reisner says.
Russia may hamper frontline supply
The current military situation around Pokrovsk is complex. Including because the Russian army does not need to conquer the city itself. Once it reaches its periphery, Ukrainian supply routes will become an easy target for Russian artillery. And this will lead to the point that securing the front line and the nearby cities will become very difficult, and may even turn out to be impossible, according to Western analysts.
There is no doubt that the Russian units will make every effort to raze the city and its logistics to the ground, military expert Gustav Gressel told DV. The worst-case scenario will occur if the Russians seize Pokrovsk and completely occupy the Donetsk region, the expert warns.
But even if Russian troops reach the Pokrovsk line, Ukrainian units could block the land corridors of the Russians, Mykhailo Samos from the Kyiv Center for Army, Conversion and Armament Research told DV.
Kursk and Donbas are two sides of the same coin
Many of the brigades that could strengthen the defenses of the difficult frontline sections in Ukraine are now busy with the Kursk operation on Russian territory. The Kursk offensive is part of a larger plan for Ukraine's victory, Ukrainian President Zelensky said at a press conference on August 27. He did not give details of this plan, but promised to present it in September to US President Joe Biden and the two presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
If one of the goals of the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk was to force Russia to transfer a critical mass of troops from Eastern Ukraine to Kursk, this goal has not yet been achieved, commented Markus Reisner. “Unfortunately, the operation in Kursk does not affect the situation in Donbas at all,”, he says. Russia has transferred only part of its Donbas contingent to the Kursk region. According to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Oleksandr Sirsky, it is about 30,000 soldiers.
The Kursk offensive has not exhausted its potential
Gustav Gressel points out that the offensive near Kursk has not yet exhausted its potential. “Yes, the Kursk operation is a risky game that involves great military risks. But if you look at all the alternatives for Ukraine, they are also accompanied by high political risks, he emphasizes – among them are the US elections in November, and the debates about reducing German military aid to Ukraine, and the availability of timely arms deliveries.
Mihailo Samus' assessment is more relaxed. He looks not only at Kursk, but also at the situation as a whole. According to him, it is necessary to form a southern flank in the area, which would slow down the progress of the Russian units. It is also clear that the more the Ukrainian offensive progresses, the more the Kremlin will be forced to pull resources from elsewhere in Ukraine and transfer them to Kursk. “They are throwing all available forces at Pokrovsk to achieve a certain propaganda effect - they want to capture Pokrovsk and present it as the victory of the year, then regroup and try to send reserves to the Kursk region.“< /p>