"Alternative to Germany" is the big winner in the elections in Thuringia and Saxony - although there he is under the surveillance of the special services. And Sarah Wagenknecht's party is among the leaders. A clear victory for Russia's friends.
The elections in Thuringia and Saxony have already been called historic - their consequences change the balance of power and may also influence politics in Berlin. The leader in Thuringia with 33 percent is the right-wing populist "Alternative for Germany". (AzG). The CDU conservatives are behind her by almost ten percent.
The secret of the success of right-wing extremists in Thuringia
For the year founded in 2013 "Alternative for Germany" this is a record success in local elections. In Saxony, this party also took a place among the leaders, and against the background of these results, it no longer seems to be the protest party it was once thought to be. Polls showed that most people voted for her out of conviction. And the sociologists note that the popularity of A&G among young people is particularly high. In Thuringia, 38 percent of people between the ages of 18 and 24 voted for the far-right.
Western media emphasize that for the first time since the Second World War, a far-right party has come out on top in a provincial election in Germany. Voters are apparently not bothered by the fact that in both provinces AzG has been declared by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution as right-wing extremist and is under the surveillance of the special services. The chairman of the AsG in Thuringia - 52-year-old Björn Höcke - is considered one of the leaders of the far-right wing of the party. Shortly before the election, he was ordered to pay a fine for publicly using a banned Nazi phrase. A few years earlier, the court ruled that Hoeke could be called a "fascist". And now he claims the post of prime minister in Thuringia.
"The Golden Share" of Wagenknecht and the call not to give arms to Ukraine
The new left-wing populist party "Sarah Wagenknecht's Union" was also successful. (SSV), established at the beginning of 2024. Virtually starting from scratch, it outperformed many other parties and received over 15% in Thuringia and over 11% in Saxony. The party was born as a result of a split in the left, which was left by the former head of its faction in the Bundestag, Sarah Wagenknecht.
Both parties - AzG and SSR - are against arms supplies to Ukraine and the lifting of EU sanctions against Russia. They believe that arms supplies carry risks of war with Russia, and sanctions harm the German economy. While the provinces do not directly influence Germany's foreign policy, the SSR surprised many by centering the issue of ending Russia's war against Ukraine through diplomatic channels. During the election campaign, the union positioned itself as a "party of peace". In addition, leader Sarah Wagenknecht said she was emphasizing "diplomacy" on Ukraine, as well as on the cancellation of plans to deploy American long-range missiles in Germany.
There is nothing unexpected in all this, since calls for rapprochement with Putin's Russia have been successful especially in East Germany, on the territory of the former GDR.
AzG won the election, placing traditional emphasis on the fight against migration and crime, demanding a sharp tightening of the rules for accepting refugees and migrants.
Despite the high results, this party cannot form a government - all the others refused to enter into a coalition with it. But even if AzG remains in opposition, its influence is growing. Having received a third of the mandates in Thuringia, there the AzG has the so-called blocking minority.
SVS can become the owner of the so-called "golden stock". In Thuringia it will not be possible to form a government without him, and it will probably be the same in Saxony.
Complex negotiations are ahead in both provinces. The governments will most likely be headed by representatives of the CDU, but the conservatives will have to make painful compromises with the SSR, and perhaps with the Left Party.
What will change in Berlin politics?
For the ruling left-liberal coalition in Berlin, the results of the vote in the eastern part of Germany are the second serious blow after the failed European Parliament elections in June. As the DPA agency writes, for Berlin the election results are "catastrophic, but it could be worse". In Thuringia, the Greens and Liberals failed to even cross the 5 percent barrier. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats avoided the worst-case scenario, getting just over six percent, but overall support for the party is falling. In Saxony, the Social Democratic Party received just over 7%, and the Greens barely managed to break through to the local parliament - with 5.1%.
AzG's results are not surprising, but a continuation of a trend from recent years. The left-liberal parties are losing their already weak positions in East Germany, while the right and especially the ultra-right are gaining strength.
What will change in Berlin politics after these elections? Will Sarah Wagenknecht achieve a change in Germany's policy towards Ukraine and Russia? Observers are cautious in their predictions and assume that the SSR leader will try to do just that. It is possible that a reference to the role of diplomacy in relations with Russia and Ukraine will appear in the coalition agreement, but no one believes that Wagenknecht will cause a reduction in military aid to Ukraine or the lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia.
On the other key issue of the election - migration policy - changes began to take place even before the vote when, in response to the recent stabbing and triple murder in Solingen by a Syrian, the government tightened immigration laws. Observers expect that as the parliamentary elections scheduled for autumn 2025 approach, this process will continue. The setbacks of the ruling parties in Saxony and Thuringia could put additional pressure on the coalition in Berlin, whose participants have recently found it increasingly difficult to find compromises.