Russian President Vladimir Putin's invitation to his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vucic to attend the meeting of leaders of the BRICS organization of countries with emerging market economies in the Russian city of Kazan turned out to be a hot potato in the hands of the Serbian head of state.
The invitation was announced during the conversation on Wednesday in Vladivostok between Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin and the Russian President. At the time, Putin said he expected Vucic to come to the Oct. 22-24 meeting of BRICS leaders in Kazan, the capital of the Russian republic of Tatarstan.
Vucic, answering a journalist's question, thanked yesterday for the invitation and pointed out that important guests should arrive in Serbia during this period.
Then we have important guests from abroad, but I will not talk about that now, we will talk about that on October 10, Vucic was quoted as saying by Serbian media. He did not specify who the guests would be.
His response was described by some local media as a refusal of the invitation.
Today, Vucic said that the media reported what he said completely differently, and that some reported that he would go to the BRICS meeting, while others – that he will not go, when in fact he said “we will see”, informed the Serbian newsroom of TV En1.
He specified that he will decide whether to accept the invitation between October 10 and 15.
„Serbia leads an independent policy, both internal and external, and it gives results, above all in the economy, and that is the most important thing”, stressed Vucic.
Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin told state broadcaster RTS today that Putin and Vucic will discuss the invitation in a pre-arranged phone call.
Serbia is a candidate country for EU membership and condemns Russian aggression against Ukraine, but refuses to join Western sanctions against Moscow, while the EU insists Belgrade synchronize its foreign policy with the European one.
Brussels criticized Vulin's meeting with Putin, saying that maintaining ties with Russia during Russian aggression against Ukraine is not in line with EU values and the bloc's accession process.
At the same time, in his conversation with Vulin, the Russian president drew attention to the fact that the contract for the supply of Russian gas to Serbia, concluded under favorable conditions for Belgrade, expires in March 2025 and must be renegotiated.
Despite seeking to diversify energy supplies, Serbia is largely dependent on gas supplies from Russia, and the Russian company "Gazpromneft" is the majority owner of the Serbian oil monopoly NIS, notes Reuters.
Putin also noted that there is a slight decline in bilateral trade between Russia and Serbia and that it is necessary to “pay attention to the obstacles related to this and remove them”. He indicated that it was "time for the interstate commission to meet, which has not met for at least two years.
However, Belgrade is dependent not only on Russian gas, but also on the Kremlin's support on the Kosovo issue. The former Serbian province of Kosovo declared independence in 2008, which Belgrade does not recognize. Russia and China, which are permanent members of the UN Security Council, also do not recognize the statehood of Kosovo.
Commenting on the situation with the invitation to Vucic, the analyst from the Demostat research center, Milomir Mandic, drew attention to the fact that in Vladivostok, Putin did not meet with Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic, but with the Serbian Deputy Prime Minister, which, according to him, is indicative of current relations between the two countries, but also about the international situation of Russia.
"If we carefully analyze Putin's statement, we can conclude that it is a message to the President of Serbia. On the one hand, it is a mixture of twisted threats, and on the other, it is an offer. Simply put, you have a profitable gas contract, a loan for the railway and the like, and our trade is falling, the intergovernmental commission has not met for two years... Putin clearly says that these relations are no longer the same as they were before the beginning of the war in Ukraine," commented to the Belgrade newspaper “Danas” Mandic.
In his words, the invitation to Vucic could also mean an offer to Serbia to decide which side it will be on.
"Vucic's quick response (from yesterday – ed.) is a pleasant surprise to me, and it is rational and politically wise under the circumstances. Because turning Serbia towards the West, along with pro-Russian rhetoric, is a specialty of this government. Maybe that rhetoric will slowly change, but I doubt it," assesses Mandic.
At the end of August, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Serbia, and among the many agreements that were signed was a contract for the purchase of 12 French Rafale fighter jets.
"It is an opening to strategic change despite great pressure that needs to be emphasized. This is a real strategic courage and opportunity for Europe", Macron said at the time at a press conference in Belgrade, quoted by France Presse.
In July, Serbia signed a memorandum of understanding with the EU for a strategic partnership in the field of sustainable raw materials, value chains in the battery sector and electric vehicles. The document was signed by the Vice-President of the European Commission responsible for the European Green Deal, inter-institutional relations and perspectives, Maros Šefčović, and the Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy, Dubravka Jedović Handanović. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was also at the ceremony, as well as representatives of the German automotive industry.
Political scientist Ivan Krastev, chairman of the Management Board of the Center for Liberal Strategies and a researcher at the Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences in Vienna, commented to the Serbian section of Radio Free Europe that, in his opinion, Serbia is trying much more to behave like a Western an ally with a particular opinion than as a country that is in the middle because it is not easy to be on the edge.
„In a way, if you are on the edge, then you become too vulnerable, because some of the foreign policy decisions you make will be reflected in the domestic political plan”, Krastev points out.
On the occasion of the invitation to Vučić for the BRICS meeting, he notes that “Donald Tusk (Polish Prime Minister – ed.) will be on an official visit to Serbia on the same day“.
„So Vucic will probably stay in Belgrade”, says Krastev.