Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
The guessing game over which place the DPS will take in the elections is over - it will not be in the top three. For a position after third place, each of the two formations registered for participation (with and without the DPS in the name) will compete with the BSP, “There is Such a People” and some party of a national-populist breed - but first with its former allies.
The battle will be until the last minute
Forty days before the elections on October 27, the predictions that the ethnic vote of the DPS will pour into the supporters of Ahmed Dogan are unlikely to come true one hundred percent. In some areas they will be realized by half, in others they may even approach one hundred percent, but what the final result will look like in terms of mandates is difficult to calculate - the battle will be until the last minute.
The former co-chairman of the MRF - the oligarch Delyan Peevski, sanctioned for corruption by the US and the UK, is positioning himself as a stronger institutional player, with support from regulatory bodies and institutions. His “MPS-New Beginning” has already received the “MPS” brand from the Supreme Administrative Court (SAC), which also guarantees him representation in the RECs and SICs, which count the votes and enter the results in the election protocols.
The intrigue for the monolithic MRF until 3 months ago is whether electoral loyalty to Dogan will prevail over Peevski's competitive advantages.
For now, there is one prediction and it is that of Prof. Mihail Konstantinov on Nova News - that the DPS will lose about 15 parliamentary seats, and the two factions will have a total of 30-35 deputies. However, only one of the two - "DPS-New Beginning" or "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms", will have won most of them, and their clash will continue in the post-election configurations. When an attempt was made to form one after the elections on June 9, the internal war in the DPS began. The reason was the decision of the now expelled co-chairman Delyan Peevski for the party to support a GERB government in the first term - despite the call of the honorary chairman Ahmed Dogan not to do so.
Snapshot
A day ago, "DPS-New Beginning", which retained the brand "DPS" thanks to the Supreme Administrative Court, gathered 25 regional heads, 18 mayors elected with the MRF lists (out of a total of 38, author's note), as well as two of the coordinators for Turkey at an extended meeting. The information about those present largely outlines the geographical map of influence of Peevski's camp.
Among the mayors who attended the meeting are from settlements in the Pazardzhik and Blagoevgrad regions, where Delyan Peevski led MRF lists in several consecutive elections - Sarnitsa, Belitsa and Satovcha, where many Pomaks live. Peevski's generous donations to voters in these regions are known, which ensured 2 and 3 mandates for MRF in the 50th National Assembly, respectively. Mayors of two municipalities in Stara Zagora - Pavel Banya and Galabovo, as well as of the Shumen municipalities - Venets, Varbitsa, Nikola Kozlevo, where three of the five municipal structures of the MRF are located, also participated. The movement won two mandates each from the Stara Zagora and Shumen regions on June 9.
When the unrest in the MRF began in July, in the Shumen region they initially supported Dogan, but also declared themselves against the exclusion of Peevski's man - MP Hamid Hamid. In August, however, an expanded regional council supported the MRF and its leader Ahmed Dogan, but now it turns out that the unity is not quite complete. In the Targovishte region, which secured 3 mandates for the MRF in the June 9 vote, the regional council and the youth MRF stood behind “DPS-New Beginning”.
In the pre-election meeting of “DPS-New Beginning” Mayors of two municipalities in Haskovo - Stambolovo and Madzharovo, as well as two from Targovishte - Opaka and Antonovo, also participated. These are all municipalities with strong DPS structures and give Peevski's camp a slight advantage in these electoral districts. The previous regional chairman of DPS-Haskovo (the Movement won 2 mandates in the region, ed.) Mehmed Ataman was among the 10 local leaders of the Movement expelled by the honorary chairman. His absence from the meeting of “DPS-New Beginning”, where the other nine were, is due to the fact that acting Prime Minister Glavchev appointed him regional governor of Haskovo (he had previously been a deputy and deputy mayor). Several local websites reported that in recent years his wife's construction company has won public contracts worth over 9 million leva in the region.
The ten municipal structures of the MRF in Veliko Tarnovo, where the Movement traditionally wins one mandate, have also chosen “New Beginning”.
It is not calm in the “fortress”
This shows that in Targovishte, Shumen and Haskovo the battle between the two camps of the MRF will not be easy at all, also in Blagoevgrad, but undoubtedly the most contested will be in the Kardzhali region known as the “stronghold of the MRF”, where the Movement won all five mandates in the previous vote. An unwritten tradition dictates that the party leader should lead the list here - for June 9th, Peevski was at the top. Now Peevski and Ahmed Dogan, already nominated for leader by the MRF-Kardzhali District Council, are expected to face each other.
But the mayor of Kardzhali Erol Myumyun, who is running for his first term, is among the MRF activists supporting the “New Beginning”. In addition to him, the mayors of Djebel and Chernoochene, Nedjmi Ali and Aydzhan Ahmed, as well as the chairman of the Municipal Council in Kardzhali, who also heads the MRF municipal council, Bayram Bayram, are members of Delyan Peevski's faction. For some time now, the streets of Kardzhali have been bustling with construction activity, after the mayor announced in February a major renovation of 17 streets for over 23 million leva, and nine of them are already under construction, which is also welcomed in the regional center.
The vote will be fragmented
However, the vote of the Turkish ethnic minority will be even more fragmented due to the three parties registered to participate in the elections, all registered by opponents of Dogan - DOST, “National MRF“ of Guner Tahir and “People's Party Freedom and Dignity” by Orhan Ismailov.
How will expatriates in Turkey vote, after 61,467 voters with dual citizenship voted for the MRF on April 2, 2023, and 41,995 on June 9? Probably even fewer. Several buses from Turkey will certainly dock at the bus station in Kardzhali on election day, provided by the “New Beginning”, as it was a few months ago.
By October 27, the rivals for the votes of the same voters will be flooded with rivers of mud. However, no one has shown Peevski's sheds yet.