< strong>Boris DEMASH, cyprus-daily.news
After last year's brilliant success of Chinese diplomacy in reconciling age-old ethnic and religious rivals — Iran and Saudi Arabia, the world was full of expectations that Beijing could also take another "Gordian Knot" — Russia's war against Ukraine.
But over time, hopes turned to disappointment. "The 6 Point Consensus" - an initiative supposedly developed jointly with Brazil seemed too vague. At times it felt more like an "initiative for the sake of initiative", China's attempt to meet the expectations prevailing in many countries of the Global South. Criticism of the Chinese plan was voiced on both sides of the front.
But it seems that the situation is starting to change dramatically. China is trying to take advantage of the current pre-election uncertainty in the United States and is already serious about ending the war in Ukraine, even hypothetically not allowing the laurels of the peacemaker to fall into the hands of the current or future White House Administration.
It seems that Beijing could apply its peacekeeping energy to another conflict, particularly in Africa, where security problems are not lacking. But Beijing's choice fell on the war in Ukraine.
However, Beijing is aware that it cannot solve these problems alone. There is mistrust of Beijing in Ukraine, and Russia, which has many excuses for its attempts to redraw the borders of the former Soviet republics, is irritated that China's reminders of the principles of sovereignty are met with irritation.
But now the Celestial Empire has a reliable recipe — the global south. It is enough for Beijing to simply assemble a certain "majority coalition" (how to collect, with a whip or a carrot, another question) to dictate on her behalf the terms of peace, both to the two parties to the conflict, and to the whole world at the same time.
It seems that the first act of the Chinese play called "settling the war in Ukraine" is happening right now on the rostrum of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly. On the sidelines of the event, Beijing should gather ministers or senior representatives from BRICS allies and loyal states from the Global South to form a "core group" that will support China's already concrete, not vague, plan to freeze the war.
But the "core group" it is not yet the entire Global South, and it is not even a "coalition of the majority". In addition, according to the scenario of Chinese directors, the play suggests a rapid expansion of this group at the expense of other countries from Africa, Latin America and Asia or regional international organizations, such as the African Union. The stake will be a kind of "pyramid effect", when individual BRICS member countries will join in supporting the Chinese initiative of the countries that are led by them.
But the biggest work, of course, will be done by China itself. Beijing's set of 'arguments' can be very broad and apply individually to different countries in the Global South. But everyone knows the basic argument — money, that is, more precisely, economic dependence on China. This infallible argument got its name in 2017 when Brahma Chelani published his famous article "China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy".
But back to our game. If China can muster enough support, at least internationally, to substantiate the claims that 110 countries around the world have already endorsed the Brazil-China "6-point consensus", then the play will culminate. A decor has been prepared for her — the October meeting of BRICS leaders in Kazan, Russia. It is there that Beijing expects to clearly present to the world its specific plan to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, but of course on behalf of the "majority from the South".
For the successful implementation of this plan, it would be highly desirable for China, in addition to the Global South, to attract the support of at least one authoritative European player. But it seems that in this plan, Beijing has already learned to conduct separate negotiations with individual European leaders who feel insecure about their positions in the country and take into account local business and the benefits of cooperation with the Celestial Empire.
And what does all this mean for countries in Africa or other regions of the Global South. Like another good deal with China, right? Chinese money (investments, loans, technology) in exchange for only Beijing's political support to resolve the war, which is, for example, tens of thousands of kilometers from South Africa or Latin America.
But in fact the threat lies in the imperceptible replacement of the UN and the entire global architecture based on international law by Chinese arbitration, where Beijing will be guided only by its pragmatic interests. Tomorrow, Chinese arbitration will ignore the principle of the inviolability of borders in Africa, enshrined in a special resolution of the Organization of African Unity in 1964, and only because it will suit the interests of Beijing's next logistics mega-project.
By supporting China's political initiatives in Europe today, the Global South tomorrow risks not only China's economic but also political hegemony at home.