Comment by Daniel Smilov:
A campaign begins, within which the Bulgarian party system - as far as it exists - may collapse or implode. After this election, the result may turn out to be dramatically unexpected. And rather in a bad direction.
Right now, a lot of people feel both tired of the seven choices and some satisfaction that they can "punish" politicians without ever going to the polls. At the same time, from an economic point of view, things seem to be moving, or at least moving in the right direction - incomes are growing, we have record low unemployment and even the chances for the Eurozone do not seem to have completely disappeared.
Recklessness, because of which Bulgaria may fall into a difficult situation
All this creates a great environment for political spectatorship - let's see what new sizzle can be produced in parliament, and the cost of the show will be relatively low. In the worst case, there will be some caretaker government and new elections.
However, this is not only a fraudulent feeling and irresponsible behavior from a civil point of view. This is sheer recklessness, because because of it, Bulgaria can fall into a very difficult situation indeed. Yesterday's midnight circuses in the parliament showed how with parties like "Vazrazhdane", ITN, BSP and worse, the country practically becomes ungovernable, even when they do not have a majority. In fact, with the hush-hush blocking of the parliamentary tribune, billions of BGN were lost (perhaps irretrievably) from aid that the EU gives us for reforming the energy sector. Without these aids, it will remain ineffective and its production will be unnecessary both on the domestic and European markets. But we will have lost billions for the creation of new efficient capacities and retraining of workers.
This is just a small illustration of what will follow in the event of a collapse of the parties of the pro-European majority, and such a collapse, alas, is entirely possible.
What can happen
1. With an estimated 2 million people voting, a 10% difference between first and second (as predicted) may seem large, but it's actually about 200,000 people. PP-DB in the previous elections lost 300,000, and GERB about 150,000. If we have an asymmetric mobilization of electorates in these elections, even the leadership of GERB is not certain, because 200,000 votes for one party or another will be able to radically change things. With the harnessing of the mayors in certain cities, GERB is clearly scraping the bottom of their electoral nights. Their inability to create a government when they supposedly "win" four times. elections, it cannot but demotivate voters this time as well. If the withdrawal is in the hundreds of thousands, the race will become quite unpredictable. And the permanent pairing of Borisov and Peevski, as well as their refusal/inability to part with their corruption baggage, is a curse for GERB, which will continue the shrinking of this party;
2. The second in the election is also completely unknown. The vote for PP-DB is wavering, but it is possible that their voters will be startled by the possibility of a "Revival". to be second and the country to permanently lose its European perspective. The withdrawal and punishment of political representatives has already been played once by this electorate and the result is visible - nothing good for anyone followed. "Revival" on the other hand, they depend on the dispersion of the Russophile and patriotic vote. If BSP collapses further and if competitors of "Vazrazhdane" as "Majesty" and "SWORD" perform worse, Kostadinov's men have a chance to concentrate votes and advance. However, new "patriotic" formations. About 7-8% are going to vote for "others" parties, which means that there will most likely be new surprises in the national-patriotic sector (as well as in the sphere of pure political exoticism);
3. From the third onward, nothing is clear at all: who and how many will enter the parliament at the moment is God's business. Most likely, Dogan's DPS will be in - at least formally it is above the statistical error regarding the 4% barrier. But here we are talking about very small numbers. If one percent is about 20,000 votes, shopping for 50,000 can be decisive, for example. The Ministry of the Interior will again benevolently close its eyes to the ungodly deeds of GERB, Peevski and company. The new thing will be that Delyan Peevski will have to mobilize all his resources for his own "New beginning", which in terms of the controlled and bought vote will not be new at all. The interesting thing here is that with relatively little money, organized crime will also be able to intervene decisively, which can turn the next parliament into a quite astonishing menagerie. Russian (by ownership, service or origin) businesses in Bulgaria, which are quite a few, will also play actively, sensing the clear opportunity to influence the outcome.
Seirdzhiism can play a bad joke on Bulgarians
From this point of view, political surveillance can play a very bad joke on the Bulgarians. Tiredness from repeated voting, irritation with one or other representatives - these are indisputable facts. But the citizens who really want Bulgaria to still be a European and at least somewhat normal country, at the moment simply cannot afford to stay on the sidelines. If they do, they will most likely have a real reason to despair.
There is also good news. If responsible citizens mobilize, the result they will get may exceed their wildest dreams: the bought vote will remain meaningless, and the representation of anti-European and corruption-tempted parties can be decisively reduced.
It is a hallmark of democracy that the outcome of the election is not clear in advance. In the present case, this is quite true.