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"Crisis creates opportunities": just look at Bulgaria

Because of the entire political hurricane of recent years, the government seemed to "forget" to interfere in business. And in fact, people started to live better.

Oct 15, 2024 13:40 74

FAKTI.BG publishes opinions with a wide range of perspectives to encourage constructive debates.

Comment by Ivaylo Noyzi Tsvetkov:

Most media observers and individual politicians imposed an eschatological feeling that seven elections in less than four years (and an eighth on the horizon in the early spring of 2025) are pushing us towards some abyss.

Part of this "sense of doom" is also being felt by certain economists, especially in the light - or rather the darkness - of the possible missed multi-million dollar benefits from the failure to absorb parts of the notorious Recovery and Sustainability Plan. And they make you believe en masse that some big bucks will leave.

The political chaos allowed business to breathe freely

They, as usual, are not telling you the truth - most of these bucks have already left, but they fail to mention who is to blame. There is not just one person to blame and it is not just a matter of deadlines, but of the lack of any cohesive plan for how, what and why we will absorb it, as well as the lack of a series of laws and legal amendments that some should have made, and not to dwell on the topic of "so much for us, less for you". So calm down - some of the money has left, a large part of the others will leave too, it is not the first time that we have not had a smart and socially useful government. In our parallel Bulgarian Universe, the cynic would say, even better, because you failed to fool them.

However, you managed to do something else without wanting to. In the entire political hurricane a la "Milton" over the past 3-4 years, which destroyed a lot of local and all kinds of structures, disenchanted 70% of voters and led us to a political zug-zwang, business was left relatively alone. Including because the official is a timid, herbivorous animal that stoops in times of political uncertainty, at times to a complete blockage.

Hence the paradoxical seemingly positive results, as reported by all economic indicators. In general, after the Covid winter, which reminded of "Game of Thrones", the authorities - with the exception of gambling, which is a topic for a separate analysis - seemed to "forget" to interfere with business, including even trying to take it over. One explanation could be that it is too busy with itself because of the stalemate. Another could be that - divided into two or three camps - politicians have left business to fend for itself.

And every time you let business fend for itself, sooner or later people live better. And that's what I'm saying - in the last three years people have lived better, while politicians have been stabbing each other with cocktail skewers in front of the audience. Why? When the state itself humbles itself, the economic system and entrepreneurship slowly begin to flourish. Even relatively speaking, the scissors of inequality are being retracted, as - I'm sure - you've already read from economists like Alberto Alesina or Robert Lucas Jr.

Yes, we're not talking about absolute values, but I took the time to talk to at least six native Bulgarian investors, some of them large ones. They not only reminded me of the cliché that the crisis gave birth to opportunities, but also that the political pressure on them at the moment is either non-existent, or at least not what it was from certain power messengers in the great era of stability (or stagnation, depending on the point of view). Of course, their forecast is heartbreaking: some new political tornado is coming, a category six storm that will take away at least their "roof", as happened with the baseball stadium in Tampa.

Or, as a friend said: It just got better, and it's going to get worse. As if by Chekhov and Scorsese at the same time.

Why the crisis is actually an opportunity

But let's see. The most important thing is that there is no universal category of "better", and this is where philosophy comes in. Here is another seemingly indefensible thesis - that thinkers want things to get "better". Nothing like that - even Parmenides and especially Epictetus want to understand why in the end it doesn't and never will get better. Plato rambles on about the ideal state there, but let's assume that he didn't fully grasp the Socratic in the dialogues and is just pretending. By the way, in our country now, almost like in the Hellenistic era, anyone who tries to say something smarter than "better" floor, without shouting it, at best is labeled in the style of "who cares".

In all this sense, it seems to me that the so-called "political crisis" is not necessarily a crisis per se, but - in Chinese - really an opportunity. At the same time, our current political situation would puzzle even Miss Marple.

In my opinion, ours can be summarized as follows: Bulgarians, just like, say, Lithuanians, are nice people, but they didn't happen in the 20th century. And this "non-happening" of ours haunts us to the point where we still wonder why the political class is not at the level of most voters. Well, it's not. They offer approximately the same bad circus that repels the majority of smart people.

Imagine a smart person and a good professional, a Bulgarian, who lives in a relatively small town in our country. He has put together a normal life, he has children. He quite reasonably doesn't want to live in Sofia. He probably doesn't vote, but he has fair demands on the government - to provide him with at least a kindergarten, to have heating and electricity, to do something, to deregulate two counters and make his life easier so that he doesn't seek the notorious happiness elsewhere. And now immediately imagine that there are fewer and fewer such people because the local feudal lord - for example, a gerbadzhi or a depessar, I can't think of a third - has made it so that this local urge towards the middle class pushes him abroad.

But this man with a probably good profession is in the smaller town. And now imagine a competitor in his life - an imaginary emigrant returning. With the exception of the grocery store, where it is expensive and tragically low-quality, this returnee of ours has long understood, before the politicians, that it makes sense to return to a country that has been changed beyond recognition and private initiative here costs significantly less. And he would like to take the place of our specialist.

Ergo, the political crisis aporialy makes it better for certain stratification levels.

Many Bulgarians find it meaningful to return

Of course, until you face the judicial system (God forbid). Despite the efforts of the democratic community, you will still have a captured Bulgarian prosecutor's office and court. There will never be someone there like Thomas Dewey, who nailed Lucky Luciano and Dutch Schultz. There will be no Giovanni Falcone either, but that is really another topic.

Along with the demographic crisis, this is the real scourge. But I have a new grain of wheat, Vera, for which no armor-piercing bullets have been found - many Bulgarians, despite the outrageous prices of food in our country, find it meaningful to return, because in many places in the First World it has also become outrageously expensive to live. Political parties, if they had a pinch of sense beyond the advice of their PR guys, would attack this stratum as well. But no: we all want the few from our circle who will vote. And from now on we hope for a miracle and even preferences, while the New Beginning counts votes in an Excel spreadsheet.

I terribly hope that yet another inability to assemble a government will sober up the democratic community. Because not voting has become somehow cool, but - immersed in our wonderful economic indicators at the moment - we are all losing against the state, which remains a scoundrel and a desperado.

Theirs is the hypostasis, the subreality, the foundation, the political content versus the form. And in this somewhat bulimically digital era of ours, in which you vomit from political content, but still consume it, I say: There is a way! And it is not to hand over power to anyone. Again, paradoxically or not, this country is developing wonderfully because of business and does not want new "constructs" or "assembly" that would hinder it.

You can do without all of these, each of whom is more of a failure. We will see each other in the eighth and ninth elections. Because the mafia does not give in, and the democratic community cannot, it is as simple as that. But remember: it's always a little later than you think. In other words: Enjoy it while you can.