In 2023 the parliamentary majority supported the idea of sending weapons to Ukraine to use against Russian military units. In May of this year, the green light was given by European politicians at the highest levels for our weapon to be used against Russian objects. Why do we push each other ”between the slaps”?
From the so-called right, we will get the following answer: “We are members of NATO”. Last year, acting Minister of Defense Dimitar Stoyanov and US Ambassador Kenneth Merten discussed the modernization of the army and Bulgaria's aid to Ukraine. The American ambassador also praised Sofia's actions and role in the conflict in Ukraine. Yet do we have any other choice?
Naturally yes. Let's look at an example – Hungary. A country like ours has a similar development of history for the last 100 years. Both countries are allies of the Third Reich and we pay dearly for this act, after which we pass into the social camp and are accordingly part of the Warsaw Pact. After the changes in our political systems, we strive for European integration and become members of the EU and NATO. But what is our difference?
First - the Bulgarian elite seems to be striving to be one of the first to take actions that will please our partners more than to think about what their consequences would be. Hungary, because of the minority in Ukraine, categorically refuses to send weapons because it does not want its compatriots to be targeted by a Russian attack. Petkov's governing coalition included a party whose electorate is friendly to Russia. The BSP (despite the claims that Ninova sent arms and if so she lied to the electorate and many of her comrades) was opposed to sending military aid to Ukraine, so the PP came up with a workaround that would allow Bulgaria to officially denied arming Ukraine. The government exported to other European Union countries, including Poland, and then the weapons traveled to Ukraine, theoretically without Bulgaria being involved. Spoer Kiril Petkov Sofia managed to provide "about a third of the ammunition" needed by the Ukrainian army in the initial stage of the conflict. Bulgaria produced and supplied weapons to Ukraine. According to documents, the supplies reached Ukraine through a fake Polish end buyer. Meanwhile, in Bulgaria, the situation became public already in June 2022, when the head of the state export company "Kintex" Aleksandr Mihailov resigned according to some for political reasons and, perhaps in revenge, disclosed data on secret exports of ammunition to Ukraine.
"Mikhailov spoke of exports worth 2 billion euros ... He also mentioned supplies of ammunition for the BM-21 Grad salvo fire system," as Die Welt reports. And at the end of last year we openly announced the support of Ukraine with ammunition.
On the other hand, we do not think about how our support for Ukraine will affect our compatriots there and not only. If Kyiv “falls” the next country ready to awaken the fury of the bear is Moldova. At some points, things are even more fragile from a geopolitical point of view with Transnistria. The political elite in Chisinau do not hide their plans to see their country united with Romania, but this means an exacerbation of the conflict between Moldovans and Russians, and also the Gagauz, who are more willing to occupy the Russian side, will be drawn in as a participant. Such a possible development of the scenario will strengthen the participation of Bucharest indirectly or directly. This means that there could be a conflict dangerously close to our border.
Second – how does Budapest see the solution to the conflict in Ukraine? Simply – diplomatically. And since Finland is not the country that in the 70s managed to make the two camps communicate even more, Helsinki decided to become part of the Anaconda strategy (read the ideas of the Anglo-Saxon geopolitical school, specifically the ideas of Mackinder, Spykman and Mahan to see what I'm talking about). Viktor Orban has been talking about a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Ukraine from the very beginning, the president of Bulgaria is also on the same position, but the main parties in the political life of our country categorically refuse to support these ideas.
If we start acting like Viktor Orbán, does it make us less Atlantean? No! To appease the so-called “right” I present a few facts:
- Viktor Orban describes the events in Crimea as “annexation”. And Russia's actions towards Ukraine as “aggression”
- Budapest does not for a minute think about leaving the EU and NATO;
- The FIDES party, unlike some other Eurosceptics, does not want the destruction of the European Union, but its reformation;
- Hungary is considered part of European civilization;
- Orbán visited both Kyiv and Moscow in less than a month. This speaks of the respect he has among the Ukrainian and Russian elites.
Hungary was also in ATS and SIV, has a population of 9 million people and is part of the same geopolitical region as our country, that is, we have a lot in common with it. But why doesn't it work for us? Bulgaria's problem is that the government is more responsive to outside interests, thus we can develop our businesses in the field of arms production, but we are also “pulling the bear by the tail”.
In this way, we risk approaching a new national catastrophe after a possible world war. Let's not forget that the geopolitical interests of our neighbors in our territories are relevant to one degree or another. Unfortunately, modern times do not give us wise politicians. It is one thing to watch the debate between Nixon and Kennedy - two titans of American politics, and quite another to watch the infaltiness of modern Bulgarian and even American leaders. Just look at the participation of the candidates for people's representatives now. In the last century, the great historical figures Roosevelt, Stalin, Churchill, Atlee, Truman met. Putin and Xi have the right to claim such a place in history for now, but how these people will see the new world order and how the influences will be distributed is another matter. Whether Lavrov will treat Bulgaria like Molotov is a matter of increased difficulty. Therefore, it is best to stick to the opinion of those who show wisdom in the political arena such as President Radev and Viktor Orbán.
Stanislav Mladenov
teacher of international relations in the city of Kazan, Russia