„The economy, fool” – remind me of Bill Clinton's famous phrase when he defeated Bush Sr.
This phrase explains the overwhelming success of the Republicans in the elections for Congress and Trump for the presidency.
The idiocy of nominating for a second term Biden, whose age and personal dramas have affected his abilities, and then launching the second person on his team, who is also responsible for the wrong domestic and foreign policies, also contributed to the loss . This is what he commented on "Facebook" Grigor Lilov.
What's more important is what comes next.
Once again, paradoxically, I will challenge the general opinion that is sewing around the world.
1. In the Kremlin, Putin will go crazy. Contrary to all analysis, I believe that Trump will strongly support Ukraine if Putin does not stink. Russia will keep Crimea, the neutrality of Ukraine (without joining NATO) and with a rather unclear and not very high probability – the territories in Donbas conquered in the aggression of 2014
2. Back when Trump lost to Biden, I warned that he would bury an otherwise won election because of his handling of the Covid pandemic. Because millions of Americans who don't vote or vote for Republicans will vote against him and for Democrats. Now the warning to Trump is the following “it is not a problem to feed the poor - the problem is to feed the rich”. If he feeds the super-rich, as he is preparing, while forgetting about the middle class, I would not be surprised during his term of office by massive public protests, opposition within the party against him, and even impeachment.
3. In the Middle East, Trump and the Republicans will strongly support Israel. I have never forgotten and I was one of the few journalists in the world who covered President Trump's speech at the Arab League meeting at the time – ultimatum to oil princes and sheikhs as supporters of terrorism.
4. Disciplining Iran is very likely, incl. and by armed force.
5. Taming Kim Jong Un in North Korea as a Russian proxy.
6. Politicization of economic globalization in the world and the return of the role of the state in it.
7. Total reversal of public sentiment in the EU against migration despite big business pressure for it.
8. Against the background of the demand for increased military spending, a real tightening of anti-corruption policies in the EU as a new source of funds.
9. Strengthening the contradictions of a number of countries with Germany and France, if the European policy we know so far, incl. and in the economy, continued.
10. Strong and sustained pressure to reform the ruling political and business elites in the former socialist camp and remove all of them who continue to cooperate with Russia and China. I predict severe problems for Vucic in Serbia and to your surprise – and for Orbán in Hungary. Attempts at trade deals to trade indulgences will not change US strategic direction.
11. In Bulgaria – sunset of the leader Boyko Borisov and the leaders of the PP-DB (certainly of Asen Vasilev and Gen. Atanasov) Sharp limitation of the fake vote for the pro-Russian parties. Severe problems for the hitherto magnetized.
12. Failed attempts by our oligarchy to create pro-Trumpist parties or convert existing ones into such (the US will never give them credence except for some specific occasion: ie one hand with a tap on the shoulder, but the other – with a Colt pointed at the heart )
13. Sharp warming of US relations with Erdogan. Therefore, DPS-Dogan will successfully counterattack DPS-Peveski.
***** The bottom line in this election: The US won the Cold War. Since 2000, they began to lose what they earned, incl. and a number of positions in the world economy at the expense of the interests of corporate capital exporting production abroad.
The election of Trump and the victory of the Republicans heralds a reversal in policies: the decades of victory corrections are over, we will not lose the war won against communism, and we will restore the role of the United States as the undisputed world political and economic leader.