The next US president will play a crucial role in determining the winner of the growing global conflict between democracies and autocracies. This is written in a material for the Asia Times online edition by George Takacs, senior fellow at the Bill Graham Center for Contemporary History at the University of Toronto and author of "Cold War 2: Artificial Intelligence in the New Battle Between Russia, China and America".
When I wrote "Cold War 2" about 18 months ago, Vladimir Putin was in the midst of his invasion of Ukraine and Xi Jinping was threatening the Philippines in the South China Sea and Taiwan with punitive military exercises to strike in the gray area. When the book was published earlier in 2024, the attack by "Hamas" against Israel had already sparked a major military conflict in Gaza, and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen were disrupting global shipping through the Suez Canal by firing Iranian missiles at ships in the Red Sea. Now, in late 2024, the Ukrainians are fighting aggressively to hold onto territory in Russia that they seized in August, and Russia has North Korean troops in that war zone. Israel attacks "Hezbollah" (another Iranian-funded mediation) in southern Lebanon and now Israel and Iran are directly exchanging major missile strikes. Additionally, three times this year, China has significantly escalated its punitive gray zone military tactics against Taiwan. All that remains is for Beijing to escalate its aggression against Taiwan to a full blockade and Cold War II will escalate into World War III.
A new US president will be elected next week in an atmosphere of tense geopolitical dynamics. If Kamala Harris wins, we will see the US continue to strengthen its security alliances around the world, especially in the Pacific with Japan and South Korea, to push back against the four autocracies that are driving Cold War II and keeping the world on the brink of World War III: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
If Donald Trump wins, it's anyone's guess what this unpredictable autocrat will do. Among the most threatening autocracies in the world, Russia appears to be the greatest threat. Putin throws punches beyond his capabilities because, frankly, he likes to punch. Still, the central player in the network of autocracies is China. As with many things in the world, if you want to find the source of power, just follow the money.
In fact, China's gigantic economy - the second largest in the world - is already financing Cold War II. China keeps Russia's economy afloat by buying massive amounts of oil and gas from Russia and in return supplying vast amounts of cars, machinery and technical components to Russia. They are needed to ensure that Moscow's military economy continues to produce weapons and ammunition and prevent the population from rebelling against the regime. Without China, Russia would have withdrawn from Ukraine long ago. Instead, with the help of China and now North Korean troops, Moscow continues its open aggression against Kiev, hoping that a more accommodating American president (namely Trump) will force Ukraine to capitulate. China also finances Tehran by buying almost all the oil Iran exports. Iran then uses that money, among other things, to produce weapons and ammunition for its proxy fighters in the Middle East - the Houthis, "Hezbollah" and "Hamas". Moscow is providing the Houthis with satellite data to allow them to attack ships transiting the Red Sea, thereby cutting off the Suez Canal shipping route. Iran reciprocates by providing Russia with drones and ballistic missiles, which then wreak havoc in Ukraine. China also buys 95% of North Korea's exports, again keeping this pariah country alive. North Korea has supplied millions of artillery shells to Russia for use against the Ukrainian military, and Pyongyang has also recently sent ballistic missiles to Moscow. In return, the North Korean regime is likely to receive from Moscow high-tech missile technology with which the Kim Jong Un regime can better threaten South Korea and Japan.
However, the flywheel of the autocracies is China, and the democracies enable China's economic power by doing trillions of dollars worth of trade with China every year. The next time you buy something "Made in China" from your local retailer, remember the critical role that consumers in democracies play in funding the network of autocracies, thereby enabling them to fight the democracies in the current Cold War II and the coming World War II.
The main task of the next US president will be to stop the flow of enormous economic wealth from the democracies to China.