Daniel Smilov's comment:
Three weeks after the elections, it is still not clear whether GERB will try - more or less seriously - to form a regular government in this parliament. And even if the other parties wanted to, they cannot, because GERB, DPS-Peevski and "Vazrazhdane" have more than half of the deputies in the National Assembly. With this combination, a government without GERB is politically impossible.
In 21 days, Borisov has made one statement: that he will not govern with Novo nachod and will seek a regular government with PP-DB, BSP and ITN, but only if he is prime minister. There have been no other steps on the part of GERB, in fact, except for a written statement that they will not work with Novo nachod and APS. Meetings were held between GERB, BSP and ITN, but after them the two smaller parties were not left with the impression that there was talk of a joint government.
How Borisov is trying to shift the blame to PP-DB
So far we have a lot of noise, but nothing real in the way of steps to form a governing majority in this parliament. GERB is putting all its efforts into convincing people that PP-DB is to blame. Their guilt, according to GERB, consists of two things. First, they want written guarantees that the ruling majority will adopt the three laws necessary for the PVU; will take legislative and other measures to stop the election of Borislav Sarafov as prosecutor general; and will exclude DPS-New Beginning from the management of the parliament and its committees.
Secondly, GERB accuses PP-DB of blocking the formation of a government by not voting for Raya Nazaryan as Speaker of the National Assembly. Both arguments are difficult to understand if Borisov really wants to form a regular government with PP-DB. He has already stated that he will not work with New Beginning, the laws on the PVU simply have to be adopted, and if Delyan Peevski is going to be isolated, stopping Sarafov's election is absolutely necessary. As well as depriving New Beginning of its chairmanship in the National Assembly, which is deserved due to the numerous abuses during the elections and the use of state institutions for party gain. Giving the new formation an entire state building by expelling three state agencies from it is only the most recent example in this regard.
If he really wanted to form a government
So if Borisov really intended to form a government without Peevski, the most natural thing would be to sign the PP-DB declaration, get a speaker of the National Assembly and continue negotiating the common program between the four parties. Conversely, if he does not want to form a regular government, but rather calls for early elections, he will behave exactly as he is currently behaving. He will give angry press conferences, look for an unconstitutional excuse for the proposals to block Sarafov's election, and try to stifle the president's option to choose a caretaker prime minister outside of GERB and MRF. The most touching is the unconstitutional calf sought by GERB by referring to
a decision of the Constitutional Court from 2022 on the Inspectorate at the Supreme Judicial Council. It states that in the absence of other constitutional and legal mechanisms, the extension of the mandate of bodies with expired powers is the only solution when the parliament has not elected new members. Which does not mean that in this “emergency” regime these bodies can make long-term and extremely important decisions, especially if the legislator provides otherwise on the matter.
If we go back two parliaments, the “assembly” between GERB and PP-DB failed because of Delyan Peevski's request to be officially included in the government and especially in the selection of regulators. According to Borisov, the negotiations failed for no other reason than Kalin Stoyanov. He subsequently proved to be Delyan Peevski's man, which finally clarified the question of the reason for the failure of the rotation.
After the June elections, Delyan Peevski had secured a majority for a minority government of GERB, but it seems that Borisov and Dogan (according to unconfirmed information and with the blessing of President Radev) decided that such an option would give Delyan Peevski too much power and would compromise GERB a lot. And so we came to the 51st National Assembly, which is about to end quickly, because Borisov again neither wants to govern with Delyan Peevski, nor does he want to govern without him with PP-DB.
Borisov and Peevski will be able to continue governing through Glavchev
In fact, the subtle calculation in the whole thing is that if the “home book” remains, Borisov and Peevski will be able to continue to govern together through the “Glavchev” cabinet. Even if the president refuses to appoint Glavchev's ministers, if Radev does not have an alternative candidate for the post, then Glavchev will remain in power, simply because the country cannot remain without a government. From this point of view, Peevski and Borisov can be sure that the Ministry of Interior will hold the same fair elections as the October ones. Of course, if the Constitutional Court preempts the formation of a new caretaker government and repeals the “home book”, we will be in a different scenario.
From this point of view, it will not be a big surprise if GERB rushes to go to elections before the Constitutional Court's decision. Today, an interview with Asen Vassilev was used as an excuse to interrupt any attempts to form a government. In the end, the door was left ajar by GERB, but again it is evident that they are trying to make excuses for not forming a government and for not taking any action that would lead to a regular cabinet.
Bulgarians have voted for parliamentary elections seven times in the last three and a half years. In the last six months alone, we have had two parliamentary votes. It is madness to go to elections again. It is madness to risk the eurozone and other key priorities for the sake of narrow party and personal interests.
There is no time for more theater
GERB has options for a regular government with Delyan Peevski and without Delyan Peevski: it simply has to choose between them. There is no option for a regular government that is supposedly without Peevski, but is actually with him. Such a deception can work once, but not more. Borisov smuggled Peevski into the “assembly” and has exhausted his right to such tricks. PP-DB has serious reasons to take measures against their recurrence. If Borisov is really serious about distancing himself from Peevski, PP-DB's declaration has nothing to scare him. If he is not, however, he will continue with the theater, trying to fake it.
But just as Mike Tyson turned out to have lost some of his mobility, the Bulgarian political Messi is far from being in shape for the Golden Ball. So instead of dizzying media dribbles and attempts at backscissors, it might be good for GERB to form a regular government. They have the capabilities to do so and it would be an insult to the voters if they were sent to the elections again for no reason.