Borisov sent an invitation to a meeting with PP-DB and they accepted it. But the task of forming a regular government remains very difficult, and eighth parliamentary elections will hardly simplify it, writes Daniel Smilov.
Borisov invited PP-DB to a meeting on Monday with the official aim of unblocking the work of the National Assembly and electing a chairman. According to information leaked to the media, but not confirmed by the PP-DB, GERB have proposed to give up the idea of their own speaker of the parliament and to accept a PP-DB candidate - probably Atanas Atanasov. On the other hand, they insist that the prime minister be from GERB and, most likely, Boyko Borisov himself. If this information is confirmed, then the options for the future development of events are as follows:
Option 1: Management GERB-SDS and PP-DB in coalition with other parties without DPS-New beginning and "Revival"
If Borisov is serious about his intention to govern, this would mean that he is ready to part ways with Delyan Peevski and DPS-New Beginning. This separation will not be immediate and declarative, but it should at least include an attempt to stop the appointment of Borislav Sarafov as the chief prosecutor and the election of a new chairman of the SAC from the current SJC. Also, DPS-New Beginning, especially against the background of the information about the serious manipulations of the vote, which are constantly multiplying, should be deprived of seats in the leadership of the parliament.
From there on, a governing program should be drawn up with the BSP, and perhaps the ITN, although just one of these parties would be sufficient at the moment. This is because the governing majority could almost always rely on the votes of the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms, if indeed this majority is trying to isolate Peevski from governing, as this option suggests.
Naturally, there is a risk that Borisov and GERB will try to attach DPS-New Beginning to certain policies, especially when it comes to elections requiring 2/3 of the votes in the parliament. However, with such a configuration, the weight of DPS-New Beginning will be small, and under pressure from the other coalition partners, Peevski's influence in the judiciary and regulators could, at least theoretically, be limited.
The risk for PP-DB from such an option is that it will be depersonalized in a new "assembly" with GERD. But any coalition assumes such a price. Naturally, PP-DB would not allow Borisov to be prime minister, but they could agree with a prime minister from GERB. The argument that Borissov is necessary for Schengen membership is self-refuting these days, and this membership will most likely happen without the formation of a regular government. The argument that Prime Minister Borisov is necessary for membership of the eurozone is also very weak - for this purpose, a regular government is simply necessary. There is no bonus for Bulgaria from Prime Minister Borissov.
However, for the country, an option with a regular government would be the best, if at all possible. An eighth parliamentary election would be a sign of pronounced political dementia. After all, in this one, as in the previous parliaments, there were and are opportunities for a regular government. With each subsequent parliamentary vote, these possibilities decrease and become less attractive.
Option 2: Borisov and GERB want elections, but do not want to be responsible for them
This option is completely realistic, and most of the actions of the first largest power speak in its favor. Borisov continues to not want to publicly distance himself from DPS-New Beginning and Peevski, and they openly insist on new elections - in this sense, one can talk about coordination between GERB and DPS (Peevski), which is not news.< /p>
If that is the plan, it will be best served if the PP-DB at Monday's leadership meeting rejects the idea of governing with GERB outright. Then Borisov will rightfully say that he made concessions, he tried, but it was impossible to move forward. Elections are coming, for which it is not his fault, but PP-DB.
It would be most difficult for Borisov if the PP-DB behaved towards him as if they did not understand his theater and let him lead the creation of a new governing majority. If it is really a matter of theater, at some point it will come out on its own and spectacularly - during the talks with the BSP and ITN, when gossiping about Sarafov and VAS, during attempts to smuggle DPS-New Beginning into the coalition, etc. A longer procedure for forming a government would show very clearly to everyone the falsity of the mandate holder's intentions or the failure of his ideas, or both.
In continuing the attempts to form a majority, PP-DB would also risk, but less. In the end, they would get the position of speaker of the parliament and would retain control over the final result - if it turns out that GERB have no serious intentions to work together, the handbrake will be with them.
There are also more question marks
Much depends on the third parties in forming a regular government. Each of them - be it BSP or ITN - also has its own requirements that complicate the picture. A variant with Prime Minister Boris is unacceptable for ITN, and it is hardly desired by the BSP. Both formations are close to President Radev, which will automatically make him a factor in the government - not decisive, but having a voice.
One should not forget the expected decision of the Constitutional Court on the cassation of the elections, which could lead to a nine-party parliament. In it, a triple coalition would be impossible, i.e. every ruling majority must calculate this probability as well.
All this makes the task of drawing up regular management very difficult. The problem is that the eighth parliamentary elections will hardly simplify it - they may rather postpone it a little in time. The hopes of some that the election of Donald Trump in the USA will do almost everything possible in Bulgaria are most likely exaggerated. At least because we are not in the American southeast, somewhere near Florida, but we are in the Balkans and we are a member of the EU. And the sanctions imposed on our politicians are not only under the global "Magnitsky" law. of the USA, and also from the United Kingdom, which will not change its position because of Trump's election.
In short, Bulgaria's political task of having a regular government will not be made easier either by new elections, or by the international situation, or simply by the passing of a few months.
Therefore, our collective political baron Munchausen will have to pull himself out of the swamp he has planted himself in.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DV as a whole.