Russia has no intention of making compromises regarding the occupied territories in Ukraine in future peace talks. In addition, Moscow points to Bulgaria's entry into NATO as the main reason for starting a full-scale war against Ukraine.
This is stated in an analysis by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in which experts pay close attention to an interview with Fyodor Lukyanov from the Valdai Discussion Club. Although he does not officially hold a high position in the Russian government, Lukyanov's statements in this interview are consistent with statements by Putin and other Kremlin officials regarding Russia's future negotiating positions. Lukyanov is not at all accidental – he has repeatedly moderated Putin's annual Valdai speech, and his interview with TASS can be seen as an indirect attempt by the Kremlin to shape domestic and global expectations regarding future negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
Lukyanov said that the "main thing" for future peace talks regarding Ukraine is not territories, but addressing the "root causes" of the war, which Lukyanov identified as NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s (when Bulgaria also joined NATO). Putin and senior figures in Moscow have repeatedly stated that the Alliance has broken its promises to Russia by expanding eastward, although there is not a single document with which Moscow can prove such "promises". Moreover, joining NATO is a voluntary act of each member, not a forced expansion of the bloc.
Lukyanov stated regarding the Ukrainian lands that “everything is clear: what you take is already yours“, which further indicates that the Kremlin has no intention of compromising its territorial gains in Ukraine in future peace talks. This position suggests that the Kremlin probably intends for any future peace talks with Trump to begin with the United States recognizing Russia's territorial claims over Ukraine.
Lukyanov stated that Russia's main demand for future peace talks with Trump is “a change in the security landscape in Eastern Europe“ and “abandonment [of] a number of provisions on which the existence and functioning of NATO is based“. The Russian journalist and political scientist also said that Russia may also want to discuss the possibility of “reducing the level of [NATO's] military presence“, possibly along Russia's borders, but noted that this is unlikely to happen.
Putin made a series of demands to the United States in December 2021 before his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which included NATO committing not to admit Ukraine or other countries as new members. Moscow has also demanded that NATO not deploy any military forces in countries that became members after May 1997.
Lukyanov's statements are another indication that the Kremlin remains committed to imposing its will and security interests on the United States and Europe and is not interested in compromising on this issue.
The Kremlin now hopes that Trump and his administration will be more susceptible to intimidation by the Kremlin's show of force than the former Biden administration. Lukyanov claims that Trump may be willing to compromise on NATO's founding principles to satisfy Putin's demand for NATO's withdrawal from Eastern Europe and suggests that Trump will abandon Ukraine.
Lukyanov's interview supports the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to force Trump to agree to Putin's demands, which would mean the complete surrender of Ukraine and the weakening of NATO, and Putin's personal efforts to position himself as Trump's equal on the international stage. It is important to emphasize that TASS is directly subordinate to the Kremlin and it is impossible for it to publish an interview or analysis that has not previously been greenlit by the Putin regime.