Russia reacted with hysteria to the nomination of the new US special envoy for Ukraine. Putin is clearly not sure that Kellogg will lay Ukraine at his feet. Perhaps Trump's pressure on Russia will not be only diplomatic?
Donald Trump will take office on January 20, 2025, but he has already defined his future team, including the special envoy for Ukraine and Russia - Keith Kellogg. He is tasked, as the newly elected president of the USA wrote, to ensure “peace through strength”. Moscow greeted the nomination with a flurry of statements that boil down to the following: it is ready for negotiations, but only if its demands are accepted, effectively an ultimatum. Earlier, Kellogg proposed to talk to Putin precisely in the language of ultimatums, although many believe that he is a convenient negotiator for the Kremlin, ready to “give” the occupied Ukrainian territories. But if that's the case, why is Moscow hysterical?
Do they have a plan?
The appointment of Kellogg, who is the author of a fairly clear plan for the pacification of Russia and the defense of Ukraine, caused rather negative reactions. From his plan, published back in the spring as part of the proposals for the new presidential term of Trump, many remembered precisely the readiness to provide Russia with the occupied Ukrainian territories. The main culprit of what is happening there was not Vladimir Putin, who ignited the full-scale war against Ukraine, but outgoing President Joe Biden, who was unable to prevent the war, nor to end it afterwards - through diplomacy and all-round military support for Kiev.
Brudely speaking, the US president's new special envoy for Ukraine now suggests working with what is possible. Of course, the majority, especially in Ukraine, is against sacrificing territories in the name of peace, because it is perceived as defeatism.
But here, first of all, it must be said: there are no guarantees that Kellogg will implement his own plan. The difference between an advisor and a contractor is huge. The adviser's job is to suggest options that he thinks are right, which is what Kellogg did. But the special envoy of the American president must carry out his will, even if he does not agree with it. That is, Kellogg may turn out to be the executor of a completely different plan – Trump's plan. And everything known so far from the president-elect's team indicates that he does not have a clear plan and probably intends to improvise. In addition to Kellogg, advice on the formation of a real plan for peace and negotiations with Putin can be given by other people with very different views from the new Trump administration.
To decide for Trump
Kellogg's plan consists of two parts: along with giving Russia the occupied territories (it is not known what part of them), it also includes the serious strengthening of Ukraine through the provision of armaments and security guarantees. In this regard, the second part is primary, because it is no coincidence that Trump repeats precisely the Russian formula of 2008 for “forcing peace”, used by the Kremlin itself during the war with Georgia.
The Kremlin obviously understands this. A whole chorus: the president's press secretary Dmitry Peskov, the head of foreign intelligence, the minister of foreign affairs Sergey Lavrov, and now Vladimir Putin himself say in one voice that they will not give an inch of the conquered lands. In other words - you know our conditions for peace, which imply the surrender to Russia without a fight of Kherson and Zaporozhye, as well as parts of two of the four regions that entered its composition on the basis of the pseudo-referendums held by the Russian occupation authorities.
Russia has sharply increased the intensity of air and missile strikes against Ukraine. And he hysterically threatens to start hitting the “decision-making centers”, saying that the Ukrainian authorities were illegitimate. All this looks like an attempt to achieve such a great military and psychological advantage that only the first part of Kellogg's plan remains – Russia to receive the occupied Ukrainian territories. And even before Trump's inauguration on January 20.
Military-diplomatic hysteria
In view of the complex military-political situation in Ukraine both on the front and in the rear, it should not be considered that this attempt by Putin will not succeed. The likelihood that the new American power led by Trump, for which Ukraine is not a priority, will try to make peace quickly, i.e. in favor of Putin, it is not small at all.
But the hysterical behavior of the Russian leadership testifies rather to the fact that it itself is by no means certain of its success. His threats to bomb Ukraine's decision-making centers seem tortured. And Putin is not at all sure that Kellogg will lay Ukraine at his feet. In this situation, we can clearly hope that Trump's pressure on Russia for acceptable peace terms will not be only diplomatic.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DV as a whole.