If you are curious about what a post-American world will look like, take a close look at what happens over the last few days and you'll get a pretty accurate snapshot. This is written by Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mark Champion, who covers Europe, Russia and the Middle East.
In the Levant, Syria's smoldering civil war flared up as an apparently reformed Islamist terrorist organization retook the northern city of Aleppo. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, surprised even itself by the ease with which President Bashar al-Assad's forces were initially pushed out. This was made possible because Assad's allies - who in 2015 took over the role vacated by then-US President Barack Obama - found their armies exhausted by commitments elsewhere. Russia is bogged down in Ukraine; Iran and "Hezbollah" were dealt a severe blow by Israel. HTS, backed by Turkey, chose the right moment. None of these players sought permission from the US to operate. Even Israel ignored US opposition to its invasion of Lebanon and continued the war in Gaza. President Joe Biden's administration has made it clear that it has nothing to do with the opposition campaign in Syria and has no interest in continuing it. Conspiracy theorists will have to find a new narrative.
Meanwhile in the Transcaucasia region, more than a day's drive northeast of Aleppo, the Georgian government's decision to end its bid to join the European Union has brought huge crowds to the streets of the capital, Tbilisi, fighting fierce street battles with forces to fight riots. This is happening because even though the vast majority of Georgians say they want to join the EU, their current government has managed to retain power while abandoning the EU path. This could partly be due to electoral fraud, if the opposition's claims prove true. But above all, this is due to the widespread fear - encouraged by the government itself and the bombardment of Russian propaganda - that if this small country tries to do what its people want, it will end up like Ukraine. Russian tanks and troops have already occupied parts of Georgia just an hour's drive from the capital, so this is no idle threat.
Further west in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is redoubling his efforts to seize as much territory as possible and reduce as much of Kiev's capacity for resistance as possible ahead of talks now expected to take place after the newly elected President Donald Trump entered the White House on January 20. He is doing this because Trump is bringing something new to the negotiations, namely his desire to end US defense aid to Ukraine.
Further west, in Romania, an ultra-right, anti-Western nationalist party doubled its share of the vote to come second in the parliamentary election with around 18%.
In Paris, on the other hand, hard-right and Putin-friendly Marine Le Pen threatened to overthrow the government there.
The most important drivers of all these developments are internal. This is even the case in Syria, where the failure of Assad and his foreign allies to rebuild the economy after the fighting subsided around 2019. made the question of a resurgence of the rebels - who essentially represent the country's Sunni majority against the Assad-backed Alawite minority - a matter of when, not if.
These are the incentives that come from outside. However, there is one common thread that runs even from Trump's anti-establishment MAGA movement in the US to Syria, and that is rising nationalism, while the old US-dominated "liberal" row, falls apart.
I don't pretend to know how this will all turn out. I can't even be sure whether the freedom of sovereign states to pursue their supposed interests without US interference will turn out to be better or worse than it was before. Remember the Cold War - when the world split into hostile camps and was prone to proxy wars - and the ensuing unipolar "moment," as Washington wrote, selectively imposing and often violating the so-called rules-based world order it imposed on others.< /p>
"Pax Americana" never brought world peace or justice. What is certain, however, is that there will be turmoil, uncertainty and injustice in the future. Where until recently we had - for the most part - only one great power abusing power to assert itself, now we will have many. Russia, for example, has an alleged national interest in dominating or absorbing its neighbors, whether they are the Baltic states, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, or the Balkans, as well as maintaining its only Mediterranean naval base, which is on the Syrian coast. Turkey believes it is interested in removing Kurdish fighters from the Syrian side of its border and allowing Sunni allies to rule Damascus. Meanwhile, Iran has an alleged interest in keeping Assad and the Alevis - an ethnic Arab Shia - under Syrian control and thereby creating a friendly corridor through which to supply "Hezbollah" in Lebanon. Israel, of course, has a strong incentive to prevent this, although, oddly enough, it does not want a radical Sunni regime in Damascus either.
So far, opposition to the US has united many of the new nationalists because they are revisionists, dissatisfied with their borders and the current balance of power (or in Trump's case, the balance of trade). But take the US out, as it essentially did after the Nov. 5 presidential election removed the Biden administration from the game, and their interests collide.
There is not necessarily war everywhere. Iran, Russia and Turkey are negotiating to avoid direct conflict with each other in Syria while pursuing their nationalist goals. Yet almost any major military conflict will have an effect on others, as the opportunistic move by the Turkish-backed HTS in Syria last weekend showed. Until some new world order emerges, the threat of regional or even global war will always exist.