Donald Trump’s re-election marks a turning point for the United States. His first measures and campaign promises are already the basis of a change in the country towards a deeply authoritarian and nationalist model that should encourage the development of a new kind of capitalism with close ties to political power. An exercise of power, variants of which can be found in Beijing or Budapest and which can be conceptualized under the term national authoritarian capitalism (NaCA). This is what Pierre-Yves Henin, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Paris-I Panthéon-Sorbonne, argues in an article for the electronic publication The Conversation.
Donald Trump’s new mandate is more than a change in policy. He is committing the United States to systemic change. The United States is embarking on a conservative revolution with an ideological, political and economic dimension. Ahmet Insel and I have described as authoritarian national capitalism, or NaCA, this model of organization that accompanies the movement toward autocratization that has been taking place since the mid-2000s in many countries around the world, of which China is the most notable example. Trump’s project is clearly based on the three pillars of national capitalism: identity-based nationalism as an ideology of justification; proven authoritarianism; and finally, a capitalism that has turned its back on the liberal capitalism of the past, which was subject, at least in principle, to the objective rules of the rule of law and competition.
Identity-based nationalism
American nationalism has traditionally had a dual face, something between civic nationalism and ethnic identity nationalism, but the rhetoric of Trump and his entourage removes any ambiguity. This is part of the national conservatism promoted by the new American right, to use the political scientist Maya Kandel's formula that "if Trumpism has an essence, that essence is nationalism" - conservative, identity-based, xenophobic, even sometimes racist, which integrates a cultural dimension, being part of the ongoing culture wars across the Atlantic. By mobilizing the religious tradition, the rejection of liberal culture is aimed in particular at the woke movement, to which contemporary liberal culture is assimilated. The cultural policy of the Trump administration will use the means of political, legal and financial power to impose its views. We find in this program all the characteristics of nationalism mobilized to legitimize the regimes of national capitalism (NaCa).
Proven authoritarianism
In my work on "How Democracies Die" American political scientists Stephen Levitsky and Daniel Ziblat have shown that even in countries that respect the electoral process, the climate of political life is fundamental to the survival of that political system. The Republican Party's movement in this direction dates back to the 1980s, when Newt Gingrich promoted a vision of American politics as an antagonistic struggle between good and evil. The decline of democracy occurs primarily through the questioning of counterforces.
Trump's actions during his first term were hampered by the resistance of some of these counterforces: on the part of the administration and Congress, he had to deal with a number of Republicans, traditional conservatives, who were unwilling to follow all his initiatives. In addition, the print press remained largely opposed to the president, and the judiciary was able to demonstrate its independence. With three appointments, however, Trump managed to secure the radical support of the Supreme Court for his national-conservative ideology and for his personality. Since then, Project 2025, a set of right-wing conservative policy proposals presented by the Heritage Foundation, has sought to "institutionalize Trumpism" by detailing a program to strengthen presidential power. The judiciary has traditionally played a significant role as a counterforce in the United States. The appointment of Pam Bondi to the post of attorney general (equivalent to a secretary of justice) illustrates the desire of the president-elect, who was found guilty in May 2024. in the Stormy Daniels affair, to delegate all legal functions affecting his jurisdiction to the lawyers who supported him in his legal adventures. A serious challenge to civil liberties lies in reducing the protection of federal civil servants by expanding a clause that derogates from this protection when they exercise an essentially political function. Expanding the scope of this clause, by increasing the politicization of the federal administration, will deprive many civil servants of protection, who may be fired as part of the mission of DOGE - the Department of Government Efficiency - a commission created by Trump to eliminate government bureaucracy and entrusted to the care of Elon Musk and the former ultraliberal candidate in the Republican Party primary elections Vivek Ramaswamy. This reform will also ensure the obedience of the administration. The personalization of power is a classic factor of democratic regression in the NаСа countries. In 2017 It has been noted that Trump and his entourage's fascination with great authoritarian leaders is significant in this regard. Tolerating their disinformation practices, also common (modified) during the American campaign, does not bode well for the transparency of the measures that the new administration will take. The appointment of Tulsi Gabbard, who spread Russian propaganda in Ukraine, as intelligence coordinator raises concerns about a possible Russian tropism on the part of this administration. Trump's foreign policy, with his unconditional support for the radical projects of the Israeli right and his hostility to many UN agencies, also promises a further weakening of international law and institutions.
Blanket capitalism
The weight of capitalism and billionaires in American politics is clearly not new. The possibilities for financing politics by business have been strengthened several times with the support of the Supreme Court. The statute of PACs - political action committees - originally arose from a bipartisan initiative to regulate private donations. However, the Supreme Court largely changed the spirit of the law, extending its benefits to companies and financial trusts, and the "Super Pac" crowns the system by allowing unlimited contributions. The gap between the public sector and business has always been greater in the United States than in Europe. What is new about Trumpism is the creation of a network of supporters around the candidate, now president. A striking fact is the unification around Trump, mainly in the first half of 2024, of billionaires who had previously denied his actions, in particular his participation in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. We can identify three categories of billionaires who adhere to the network of support for Trumpism. First, the ideologically committed, who consider the expression "capitalist democracy" for "an oxymoron", as the ultraliberal billionaire and Paypal founder Peter Thiel put it. According to this billionaire, "unlike in the world of politics, individual choice can still be paramount in the world of technology. The fate of our world may depend on the efforts of one person who creates or promotes freedom - freedom that makes the world safe for capitalism." It is difficult to better express the ideological basis of the devotion of these staunch allies to a providential president.
Second, there are billionaires who welcome further tax cuts. Finally, the third group consists of capitalists who fear the retaliation that Trump risks taking against them. This is the case, for example, with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, who initially spoke out against Trump on several occasions, as a result of which the latter threatened him with prison. In the end, Zuckerberg himself went to Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida in November to meet with him. At the center of this network, Elon Musk seems to be the model of the oligarchs who embody the relationship between money and power in American national capitalism: fertile ground for the establishment of clan capitalism, that is, open clan capitalism for the development of corruption, of which the Republican Party has already been accused. Trump’s fear of retaliation suggests that this network is part of a pre-Bendalist logic in which the advantage granted by power can be taken away at any time by oligarchs who are not sufficiently obedient to it.
Green light for regime change?
Trump now holds a majority in both houses of Congress after his unexpected electoral success. He thus has wide latitude to implement his agenda of regime change, or even system change. The radical nature of the appointments he has made shows that he intends to take full advantage of them. The future will show to what extent the resilience of American institutions and political life will limit this agenda. Otherwise, if the Trumpist project is not reversed in the next elections, the United States will forever join the clan of authoritarian forces at the political level, which will establish a new brand of authoritarian national capitalism alongside the Sino-Russian models and European populism.