We do not have a regular government. The political crisis is present. The economic one is being talked about in hushed tones. In general, it is clear that the geopolitical changes are not clear to us. The aim is not to show alarm. Not to “scare the people”. But it is obvious that time will not be enough to ”flip the pancake”.
The events on the international scene are so dynamic that the creaking of the cogs of the political machine of 2025 can even be clearly heard. In this regard, the reasons why what is happening in our large neighbor, Turkey, should not be ignored are understandable. There, the analyses of the key events in 2024 and what will happen in the new year 2025 are in full swing.
Most often, it is reported that the victory of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) in the local elections in 2024 and the surprising initiatives of the leader Bahçeli of the coalition ally of the ruling AKP, the Justice and Development Party, are the leading events. The first half of 2024 was marked by the great victory of the opposition CHP in the local elections held on March 31. After 47 years, this was used as an occasion for the CHP to declare itself the “first party in Turkey”. Questions arose whether this was a sign that the ruling AKP was losing power. For years, the CHP had been winning the regions around the Aegean Sea and Turkish Thrace, but in 2024 already governs cities in Anatolia at the local level, even in Turkish Kurdistan, as it is now called.
The large cities of Turkey are in the hands of the HDP, led by Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. A surprise that led to a significant change in the balance of power in domestic politics. The AKP became the second force after 22 years in power and under the same leader - Erdogan. And the Kurds, Turkish citizens, who are about 20% of the population of Istanbul, contributed significantly to the victory of the mayor of the metropolis İmamoğlu.
The other internal turmoil was the failure of the Good Party with leader Meral Akşener to succeed in the local elections. This, naturally, deepened the conflicts within the party. Akşener took responsibility and resigned as chairman. Thus, the deputies in the Mejlis of the Good Party from 43 became 30 in number. A meeting between Akşener and Erdogan sparked heated debates, both within the party itself and among the Turkish public. The HDP even said that “she turned out to be a collaborator”. Nothing new in Erdogan's practice, of course. But it is a fact that after the local elections, relations between the ruling and opposition parties in Turkey softened for a while.
Erdogan organized a meeting with the new HDP leader, Özgür Özgel, who replaced the long-time chairman Kalıçdaroğlu. After much resistance from the old leader. Erdogan was apparently forced to take a step to calm the political atmosphere in Turkey after losing the local elections. But the “softening” was quickly abandoned. Especially at the opening of the new legislative year of the Mejlis. And Erdogan's ideas for changing the constitution and some laws in favor of the ruling party.
The opposition also bristled when, on the initiative of Bahçeli, PND, "trustee policies" were implemented; i.e., representatives of the ruling party were appointed as trustees in municipalities such as Hakkari, Mardin, Tunceli, etc., in place of local mayors who had won the elections. Most municipalities are in Kurdish regions, and this created conditions for tensions at all levels.
In the second half of 2024, the political balance came into place. Moreover, Bahçeli, chairman of the coalition Nationalist Action Party, PND, made a surprising call for some to the leader of the PKK, Abdullah Öcalan, to speak before the Mejlis, the parliament, but only if he agreed to disband the PKK. Without taking into account that Öcalan himself, who has been in Imrali prison for 25 years with a life sentence, has long since ceased to control the PKK. But Bahçeli's statements brought to the fore the contradictions on the issue between the AKP and the HDP.
However, representatives of the pro-Kurdish party in Mecidiyeköy, the HDP, the Peoples' Democratic Party, visited Öcalan in prison on December 28. These are Buldan and Siri Süreyya Ender. Statements from Öcalan are awaited, but the question remains whether this has anything to do with the situation in Syria regarding the Syrian Kurds. There, the PKK and the military organization of the Syrian Kurds, the YPG, have common actions and goals. And let's not forget that Erdogan himself forced the PKK to move to Syria some time ago. The goal was clearly to solve, albeit temporarily, the problems that Turkey has with the so-called Kurdish issue.
But the events in Syria have indeed turned into a political advantage for Erdogan and the ruling AKP. The seizure of power in Damascus by the Erdogan-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group has actually strengthened the ruling AKP in Turkey. And Erdogan's expected visit to Damascus in early 2025 can undoubtedly strengthen the government's foreign policy influence in Turkey. This will make it easier to put the issue of constitutional changes on the agenda. Without abandoning the presidential system of government, of course.
Some changes are planned, such as limiting the number of vice presidents and re-appointing those who have left their ministerial posts. Erdogan himself has already stated that after the local elections, "a complete change in the ruling AKP is necessary". This is expected to happen at the 8th regular congress in May. The parliamentary group and the cabinet will be renewed.
In this way, it may turn out that 2025 will be a year of major changes in Turkish politics. And this will undoubtedly have an impact on the social structure. Also on the relations between the ruling party and the opposition. Without losing sight of what is happening in Syria. There are so many players there that Turkey can hardly expect to be the only person to control and organize the government in Damascus. Moreover, Sharaa, the former Joulani, has already met with a group of Christian leaders in the Syrian capital. The group included representatives of the Orthodox, Catholic, Armenian, Syriac and Protestant churches, and Sharaa has promised to "protect the rights of minorities and ensure inclusive governance throughout the country."
Whether this depends only on him is another question. But at the meeting, Sharaa appeared in a suit and tie. In an interview with “Al Arabiya” he stated that “revenge operations throughout the country were less than expected”. He added that despite the deep divisions during Assad's time, Syrians continue to live in harmony with each other. Whether these are just rose-colored glasses for what is happening in Syria is unclear. The near future will tell. For now, all players are waiting and under tension so that a new conflict does not break out. Against the backdrop of an invitation from Riyadh, the new foreign minister in the interim government in Damascus, Essaad Hassan Sheibani, to visit Saudi Arabia.
The invitation was accepted “with pleasure”. For him, it was “an honor”. His first visit abroad, and this is a serious signal. Especially for Ankara. He is not greeted with enthusiasm there. And on top of that, representatives of the PKK, represented by the Syrian Democratic Forces, and HTS, met with Sharaa in Damascus. Issues of "security and the future of the so-called Autonomous Administration of Rojava" were discussed. It was the first step towards forming a basis for dialogue. Earlier, Sharaa stated that the PKK/YPG would be integrated into the Syrian Ministry of Defense.
In Ankara, the hairs of the rulers have stood on end. It is not clear where Turkey stands in these processes. Because Erdogan had already stated that "the Kurds will either lay down their weapons or be buried on Syrian soil". And the weapons of the Turkish army are rattling along the border in anticipation of a new offensive on Syrian soil. It depends on whether the threats in Washington from both major parties, Republicans and Democrats, are implemented and sanctions are imposed on Turkey for a military operation against the Kurds in Syria. They are a US ally in Syria and guard the Syrian oil fields where American soldiers are stationed.
And their number in the country has doubled in the last week. Nothing to do with Trump's campaign promises that he would withdraw the US from Syria. It turns out that it is strategically inexpedient. This is the Middle East, and Syria is the key to the region. As they say, it remains to be seen.