Russian troops have recently been advancing in eastern Ukraine. In the US, Donald Trump will soon return to the White House. The new old president wants this war to end quickly. What are the chances of that in the new year, asks ARD.
The new year has barely begun, but it is already clear that it will be another difficult and dark year for Ukraine. It will soon be three full years since the start of Russian aggression against its neighboring country. In the east, Russia is increasingly successfully occupying new territories - mainly small settlements, which the Russians capture at the cost of huge human losses. But the Russian army is advancing, ARD points out in its analysis on the subject.
At the same time, the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine is growing. According to the UN, more than 12,000 Ukrainians have died since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. In 2024 alone, more than 300 civilians were killed in Russian air strikes, and over 1,800 were injured.
That is why expectations for the new year are not too high for many, the German publication continues. It quotes 26-year-old fitness instructor Andriy Shekhora, according to whom there is always hope. However, he admits that it is increasingly difficult for him to expect anything good from 2025.
“Of course we want peace, but it seems to me that this is impossible. People have become accustomed to war, I notice it myself“, Anna Usova also tells ARD. The 23-year-old Ukrainian works in a cafe.
"Trump wants Europe to deal with it on its own"
Businessman Dmitry Yasyuk is pinning his hopes on one man. "I believe the war will end in 2025, when Trump becomes president. Everyone hopes for that," says the 35-year-old. Donald Trump will take office as US president on January 20, which could become the first decisive moment for Ukraine in the new year.
During the election campaign, Trump claimed that he would end this war quickly. According to a survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, 45% of Ukrainians believe that Trump could actually make the war end quickly.
The future US president is determined to end the war, says Anatoly Amelin. He is the director of the think tank “Ukrainian Institute for the Future“. “Trump will do everything he can to achieve this, even if it means stopping aid to Ukraine. He wants Europe to manage on its own“. This means that the costs and burden for Europe in the region will increase, the expert says.
Deployment of European troops?
Amelin believes that Ukraine will have to give up its NATO membership for a certain period of time in order to achieve a ceasefire. Therefore, other security guarantees will be needed. Then European countries will have to send security contingents to Ukraine. “This would guarantee security in the demilitarized zones and protect Ukrainian airspace from Russian drones and missiles.“
Trump has already talked about sending European troops to guarantee the ceasefire, ARD recalls. However, it is still not certain whether European countries and Russia will ultimately agree to such a step. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow is not happy with such an idea.
Maybe a truce, but not peace
Amelin does not believe that the war will end in 2025 and a real peace will be concluded. At best, the conflict can be frozen. According to the expert, Russia wants to destroy Ukraine. If there is a ceasefire, the war can flare up again at any time.
Nevertheless, at the end of the old year there was at least one positive signal: on December 31, Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners of war. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 189 Ukrainians have been released from Russian captivity. According to the responsible Coordination Center for Prisoners of War Issues, among them were defenders of the Azov Metallurgical Plant in Mariupol. They defended the steel plant for two months before surrendering in the spring of 2022.
The Ukrainian authorities have not said anything about the number of Russian prisoners of war exchanged, but the Russian Defense Ministry has said that the two sides exchanged 150 prisoners of war each. The exchange took place with the mediation of the United Arab Emirates.