"IF IT KEEPS ON RAINING, [the] levee's going to break" - these lines from the Led Zeppelin classic can be used to convey the strain that Viktor Orban's regime has been under since Peter Magyar appeared out of nowhere to redefine Hungarian politics. Independent opinion polls show Magyar's new party, Tisza, leading Orban's Fidesz by at least a few percentage points. This is unprecedented. Over the past fifteen years, Fidesz has lagged behind the collective opposition for only a few brief moments, and has never trailed a single party since Orbán returned to the prime ministership in 2010. Smart, tough, young, and tireless, Magyar has dictated the news cycle and shaped the narrative for a whole year. In a way that no previous opposition leader has been able to do, he has managed to focus public attention on Hungary’s growing problems and political failures.
After fifteen years of Orbán’s kleptocratic rule, Hungarians are starting to pay the price. The economy is in a technical recession and inflation is high, a situation made worse by the ongoing depreciation of the Hungarian currency. The budget deficit remains above target despite austerity measures. The EU recently denied Hungary $1 billion in European funds because it has failed to address corruption-related problems. The material well-being of Hungarian households, measured by individual consumption, is the lowest in the EU, along with Bulgaria. Hungary's poverty index is among the highest in the EU.
Hungary spends less on healthcare per capita than the EU average and has one of the highest preventable mortality rates. Hungarian hospitals are overwhelmed with debt, buildings are in a dilapidated state, and patients have to carry hand soap and often even toilet paper with them for overnight stays. The country suffers from a shortage of doctors and nurses.
The railway system is on the verge of collapse. Hungary's railway tracks are so old that trains cannot run on them at normal speed. In August last year, a train derailed while traveling at low speed at a Budapest station because of an old and unreplaced switch. Rail traffic was disrupted for several days while workers slowly repaired the problem. Meanwhile, Orbán has borrowed billions of dollars from China at an undisclosed interest rate to build a railway line from Belgrade to Budapest, bypassing nearby Hungarian cities. If ordinary Hungarians will not benefit from this project of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” at least Orbán’s father will. His mining company has a contract to supply crushed stone for ballast on the tracks, and a company owned by a childhood friend of Orbán’s, the richest man in Hungary, built the line.
Hungarian civil servants are woefully underpaid. Forced to respond to mass teacher demonstrations, Orbán’s government has promised to raise teachers’ salaries by about 20% this year. But low wages in other public sectors also need attention. Thanks to low pay, Hungary suffers from a shortage of police officers. The salaries of Hungarian judges are so low that critics worry about the independence of the judiciary. Many court employees earn the minimum wage. The situation has become so bad that last year Hungarian judges filed numerous complaints with the European Commission.
As life in Hungary has become increasingly difficult and noticeably worse, Orbán and company have become increasingly carefree and unceremonious in their display of wealth. Orbán’s son-in-law, embroiled in several corruption scandals, has become one of the richest people in Hungary. Orbán himself (formally his father) bought and converted a former Habsburg palace into a vast, extravagant private villa.
This kleptocratic cocktail of waste, mismanagement, and dwindling national wealth would doom almost any democratically elected government. But Hungary has long ceased to be a true democracy, and the question of whether even a political phenomenon like Péter Magyar can remove Orbán democratically remains open.
Many call Hungary a hybrid regime, a term used to describe a system that combines autocratic rule with democratic attributes. Hybrid regimes establish legitimacy through democratic mechanisms such as free elections, but the rules of the game are heavily regulated to ensure the desired outcomes. Hybrid regimes, however, seek popular legitimacy. To function, they need the support of a significant portion of the population. If the regime loses that support and the population turns against it, its rulers must resort to more overt forms of violence and repression to remain in power. A troubled hybrid regime can become an outright dictatorship.
Viktor Orbán’s kleptocratic hybrid regime has found itself in troubled waters, and he and his country may be close to a moment of truth. Orbán’s family and his closest allies are so deeply involved in crime and corruption that if Fidesz ever loses an election, they will almost certainly face prosecution. This makes staying in power an existential question. The stakes are higher than early retirement, and so the threat posed by Péter Magyar has Fidesz panicking.
In early November, Magyar called a surprise press conference to reveal what he called the Hungarian “Watergate” scandal. He claims that in recent months, while he was building his party and campaigning, his girlfriend had secretly recorded their conversations. She later approached Magyar and the Tisza leadership, demanding the equivalent of about $80,000 to keep quiet about the recordings. When they refused to be blackmailed, she handed the recordings over to a Fidesz oligarch who owns several major IT companies. Magyar claims that the recordings were altered by artificial intelligence and are to be published on a newly built website. His ex-girlfriend, Magyar claims, lived in an apartment owned by the IT oligarch in central Budapest and received a monthly allowance of about $14,000.
Magyar then released his own secret recording - a conversation in which his ex-girlfriend apparently tries to blackmail someone connected to Tisza for money: "I want the money and goodbye. Goodbye to everyone. . . . I don't want to be greedy, but whether I can be is another question.". Magyar also claims that all of his former girlfriends and many current colleagues have been approached by mysterious individuals who have offered money in exchange for compromising information about him.
Even worse, Magyar said he was warned by people connected to the Hungarian secret police that he and his party were under surveillance. He said spyware had rendered his phone unserviceable, and that the offices and cars of the Tisza party, as well as his personal apartment, had been bugged.
These were serious allegations. But Magyar had apparently called the emergency press conference to forestall an impending smear campaign by Fidesz, which he had been warned about, probably by someone in the government. Could it be that Magyar was spreading his own disinformation to ward off the impending attack?
The information about his ex-girlfriend’s relationship with the IT oligarch and the plan to publish compromising material online were quickly confirmed by reporters, but the other allegations proved difficult to verify. In the following weeks, unflattering audio recordings of Magyar did indeed leak to the press. The first of these was quickly subjected to analysis by artificial intelligence. One company concluded that the audio recording was fake, another that it was authentic. Further analysis yielded equally contradictory results.
To support his claim of government surveillance, Madzr showed the press a "spy pen" found in one of the conference rooms of the "Tisza" party. However, he admits that this is not the sophisticated equipment that one might expect the Hungarian government to use.
Nevertheless, Madzr's suspicions of domestic espionage are very plausible. A few years ago, the Hungarian government was caught installing spyware purchased from Israel on the phones of opposition politicians and journalists. The Hungarian government has been accused of spying on EU officials when they visit Hungary. Most suspicious of all is the huge role played in Orbán's government by a shadowy figure named Antal Rogan, implicated in countless corruption scandals and recently added to the US sanctions list.
Rogán is Orbán’s chief of staff, but his main responsibility is to oversee the government-controlled media and oversee communications strategy. In Hungary, he is regularly referred to as Orbán’s “propaganda minister.” In 2022, Rogán was also given oversight of the domestic secret police, which was moved to his portfolio from the Ministry of the Interior. The fact that Hungary has a supposed propaganda minister is already troubling, but the fact that the same person should also control the secret police is downright disturbing. What other purpose could this have other than spying on political opponents in order to uncover compromising material?
In any case, the smear campaign with the audio recordings narrowly missed the mark. In the released recordings, Magyar makes offensive comments about members of his own party, elderly voters, and journalists. Embarrassing perhaps, but hardly scandalous, especially since one cannot be sure that the most offensive comments are authentic. The propaganda ministry decided to try something else.
In December, Magyar announced that he was starting a charity program, collecting and delivering food and gifts to people in need across the country. He also visited a number of orphanages, posting photos on social media that revealed their miserable condition. Increasingly concerned, the government ordered the orphanages to deny Magyar access to their premises. This created the conditions for a confrontation aimed at undermining his authority and trust.
Knowing that he might be denied access, Magyar tries to visit an orphanage while cameras and reporters watch him. Suddenly, a high-ranking Fidesz member, a man named Tamás Menczer, approaches him as if from nowhere. In the video, Menczer’s speech appears slurred, as if he has been drinking. Approaching Madzhar, he says, "I came here for you. . . . I have been looking forward to this meeting." As Madzhar tries to enter the orphanage, Menzer stands in front of him and says, "Look at me. It's just the two of us. You and me. No one else, no one else can help you. . . . It's time for you to finally meet a man."
This verbal abuse continues for many, many minutes. Menzer repeatedly calls Madzhar a "stupid" (kicsi), and lashes out at him. Madzhar tries not to react, but he becomes visibly irritated when Menzer starts talking about his children.
"Mr. State Secretary," says Magyar, "why don't you brush your teeth?"
"You can keep smelling my breath a little longer, you idiot".
"Mr. Secretary of State, you're foaming at the mouth. This is a serious condition. But I would still recommend that you brush your teeth.".
This whole strange scene, in which a high-ranking Fidesz member behaves like a drunken hooligan, must have been invented in the Ministry of Propaganda. The aim is to provoke Magyar to lose his temper and do something stupid, thus discrediting himself as a serious statesman. But like everything else the government has tried against him, this one has backfired. It wasn't Magyar, but the Fidesz politician who seemed unfit for public office. Hungarian YouTube influencers were having fun. "[Mentzer] always had something coming out of his mouth," one of them said, "sometimes even words".
Other commentators, however, expressed concern. They feared that the overtly violent undertones of the confrontation, coming from a senior member of the ruling party, were crossing a new and dangerous threshold. Indeed, one worries about Magyar’s physical safety. He moves so freely among people and crowds and appears so often in public that a would-be assassin might find him an easy target.
IF THE PROPAGANDA MINISTRY cannot do its job, Orbán has plenty of other resources at his disposal. For example, he can change the country’s electoral laws at will and in a flash. In November of this year alone, parliament rewrote the electoral map, stripping Budapest of two parliamentary seats and drastically redrawing the electoral districts. Depending on what future polls show about Tisza’s strength, many expect Orban to change the electoral laws again.
Asked on a podcast whether defeating Orban in the election is even possible, Mágyar insisted that it is. He acknowledged that the electoral system is rigged, but added that tricks and manipulations only come into play when the race is close. His task, Mágyar said, is to win by a large margin. A lofty goal, although after witnessing his achievements over the past year, it is not out of the question. Still, to win by a landslide, Mágyar would probably have to beat Orban’s party by 10 to 15 percentage points. According to the most optimistic polls, support for Tisza is currently at 42%, and for Fidesz at 36%. The election will be held no later than 2026.
Astute Hungarian-Italian observer Stefano Bottoni fears that if Magyar proves unstoppable, Orbán will outlaw his party. The groundwork for such a move may already be in place. Last year, Hungary created a "Sovereignty Protection Office", which is ostensibly intended to protect Hungarian sovereignty from foreign interference. Since its creation, however, the office has been investigating Transparency International, Átlátszó (an anti-corruption investigative news program), and other civil society organizations. A report published by the office last May identified a “business and political interest group” trying to interfere with Hungarian sovereignty, including figures such as Wesley Clark, Eric Koch, Charles Gatti, Anne Applebaum, Francis Fukuyama and a reporter from the New York Times.
Over the past year, Orbán’s political rhetoric has become increasingly aggressive and authoritarian. He regularly refers to Magyar as a conduit for foreign interests and a tool of Brussels. In the context of the Office for the Protection of Sovereignty, this is more than just heated rhetoric. These are accusations of crimes. If the Tisza Party is an agent of foreign interests, it has already broken the law and can be banned. In fact, the Office for the Protection of Sovereignty has already launched at least two investigations into Magyar’s activities. Botany notes that declaring a party illegal for undermining national sovereignty would not be unprecedented in the EU. Romania recently banned a problematic political candidate from running for president.
The situation with Magyar, however, differs from Romania in that the "Tisza" party is affiliated with the EPP, the main center-right European party group that has the largest number of seats in the European Parliament. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also belongs to the EPP. Therefore, a ban on Tisza in Hungary would represent a serious escalation of relations with the European Union. But who knows for sure what Europe will do? For years, Orbán has been working to create a bloc of illiberal states within the EU that could block measures aimed at him. He currently has an ally in Slovakia and will likely gain another in the Czech Republic when elections are held there later this year. Orbán's friend Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right FPÖ in Austria, looks set to become that country's next chancellor. A bloc of four illiberal states could give Orbán enough room to maneuver in the European Union to ban his political opponents and establish a dictatorship with impunity.
The only thing that can be predicted with certainty is that as long as Orbán is in power, corruption in Hungary will continue to grow, public infrastructure will be neglected, living standards will continue to decline, and the population will become increasingly discontented.
Every political career follows its own arc, and Orbán’s has passed its zenith. Only dictators rule until their deathbed. If Orbán plans to rule that long, he will have to become one. If he fails to hold on to power, he could be headed for an inglorious end.
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H. David Baer - The Bulwark
translation: Nick Iliev