On January 20, the new US President Donald Trump will take office. Will he be able to fulfill his campaign promise and end the war against Ukraine? How does the American president plan to act?
The world seems to have frozen in anticipation of Donald Trump's first steps as US president and possible consequences for the country and the entire world. Russia's war against Ukraine will obviously become one of the main points on the foreign policy agenda of the new American president. Even during the election campaign, Trump promised to end the war "within 24 hours" if he wins the election. Although Trump has not repeated such words since his election, his future special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, has expressed hope that the war can be ended within the first 100 days of Trump's inauguration.
Ukrainians themselves clearly believe that Trump's victory in the US presidential election brings the end of hostilities closer. According to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted in December last year, 45% of Ukrainians believe that Trump's victory brings the end of the war "somewhat" or "significantly" closer. Only 14% of Ukrainians are convinced that the outcome of the US election takes them further away from a ceasefire.
Trump wants talks between Ukraine and Russia now
Even before the official inauguration of the new government in Washington, the Trump team made it clear that it would work actively to start the negotiation process as soon as possible. Marco Rubio, the future Secretary of State in Trump's team, told the US Senate: "It is important for everyone to be realistic. There must be concessions - from the Russian Federation, but also from the Ukrainians. It is also important to have some balance between the two sides". According to him, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is among those that have "historical roots" and "will require very complex diplomacy and hard work". "Despite all this, this conflict must end", Rubio said.
The desire to quickly start negotiations is the main change in the US course so far, is convinced Dominik Tolksdorf, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations and an expert on US politics and transatlantic relations. "The Biden administration has never clearly stated when the negotiations should begin, but it has always emphasized that it is necessary to put Ukraine in a strong position for peace negotiations, which, of course, is absolutely correct and is also the position of the Europeans," says the expert. Tolksdorf, however, does not see "anything negative" in the fact that Trump is insisting on the start of negotiations, but emphasizes that everything depends on their conditions.
Charles Kupchan, professor of international relations at Georgetown University, and Michael Froman, chairman of the US Council on Foreign Relations, are convinced that Washington should recognize the results of the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia only if they lead to "a sovereign and secure Ukraine". "Any other outcome would be a serious threat to US international interests and Trump's image as a global political leader", says an article by „Project Syndicate“.
Long-term support for Kiev is in Trump's interest
A durable ceasefire in Russia's war against Ukraine requires long-term guarantees that Washington will support Kiev, Kupchan and Froman are convinced. "If Ukraine's defenses collapse, the footage of Russian troops seizing more and more territory or even entering Kiev with tanks could destroy Trump's hopes of going down in history as a great peacemaker. Then he is more likely to survive his version of Afghanistan," the two experts are convinced. The chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 caused significant damage to Joe Biden's image on the international stage.
However, any predictions about how exactly Trump will behave after coming to power and whether he will strengthen or, on the contrary, weaken his support for Ukraine are still speculative, Tolksdorf is convinced. At the same time, he is inclined to believe that a format for negotiations will be established with the mediation of third parties - for example, from the Arab countries or Turkey. "It is not clear how successful such negotiations will be. Nevertheless, Trump will at least be able to say that he is trying to end the war," the expert notes.
Keith Kellogg's plan for Ukraine is still relevant today
In April last year, Keith Kellogg participated in the creation of a plan to end the war in Ukraine, developed by the Trump-friendly "America First" Institute for Policy Studies. The goal of this plan is to encourage Ukraine and Russia to start peace talks as soon as possible, using various levers of influence. The plan stipulates that if Ukraine does not want to participate in the negotiations, it risks a total suspension of American military aid. And if Russia proves to be a brake - it will be threatened that Washington will significantly increase aid to Ukraine.
According to Dominic Tolksdorf, this is the plan that Donald Trump will try to follow from the beginning of his presidential term. Ukraine has already demonstrated readiness for peace talks, but it is still unclear what Russia's position will be. "The Russian side does not make it clear whether it will participate in the negotiations and how constructive its participation will be, as well as whether Putin will be ready to give up his maximum demands and when," the expert adds.