Daniel Smilov's Comment:
The Raisina Dialogue 2025 conference is a leading geopolitical event, organized by the Indian think tank ORF and the Ministry of External Affairs of India. It has already become a special check of the pulse of international politics - with the participation of prime ministers, ministers, famous politicians and diplomats, admirals, scientists, heads of large foundations such as Bill Gates'.
The interest in India is not accidental. The country is pursuing a very ambitious foreign policy and aims to become an economy of about 17 trillion dollars. It is now just over four trillion, but it is growing rapidly. Much of the world's economic growth in the coming years is expected to come from the global south. In the new geopolitical environment, India is looking for opportunities and partnerships, including with the EU.
It is precisely because of its economic and human potential that India has many geopolitical suitors. One of Trump's first visits to Washington, for example, was by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The first visit of the new EC, Ursula von der Leyen, was to India. What's more, all the commissioners went, which is a very strong sign of serious intentions. The idea is to sign an EU-India free trade agreement by the end of the year, which will be difficult, but the two countries have set themselves a firm deadline and are working on it.
A few conclusions from the discussions at the conference:
1) The speech by Tulsi Gabbard, the US Director of National Intelligence, was indicative of the US desire to pursue a unilateral foreign policy, in which there are no long-term commitments to partners, but decisions based on cold calculations of national interest. At the same time, her speech revealed a serious contradiction in the approach. She noted that India is a democracy and that the US holds common values and will not give them up. However, this is where the tension between values and interests emerges, which was reinforced by the subsequent discussions: many wondered why the US imposes heavier tariffs on partners and like-minded countries, while partly supporting the agenda of outspoken opponents, if not enemies.
2) The EU was widely discussed at the conference, and with serious sympathy from the Indian side, which sees it as a potential ally against Trump's customs policy, and more generally. In general, everyone wondered why the EU is not becoming a military-political power, since it has all the resources for this. From this point of view, the Europeans are somewhat annoying to the rest of the world with their luxury problems: they have all the prerequisites to be a world power, but they seem to lack the desire and energy to coordinate among themselves. However, as ministers from the Scandinavian and Baltic countries have stated, the situation is already existential and there is no more time to waste.
3) German ministers and European politicians from leading countries have stressed that they are ready for joint actions in the defense field and are already taking serious steps in this direction. It is likely that the model of Europe at several speeds will be followed, with the inclusion of Great Britain in terms of military affairs.
4) Trump's tariff policy is not being understood internationally. The general feeling is that it will be harmful even for the United States. At the same time, however, everyone is talking about reindustrialization. Interestingly, in traditional industry, Europe is the second power after China. The EU's lag behind the United States is in the latest technologies - mainly AI. The good thing is that these are dynamic sectors in which things are changing very quickly.
5) Trump's idea of a "reverse Kissinger" - bringing Russia to the side of the US in a possible conflict with China - was considered unrealistic. The ties between China and Russia are quite deep: the two countries share a gigantic border, Russia is dependent on Chinese imports of high technology, it needs China as a market for oil and gas, etc. And in general, the Russians can easily use the gifts that Trump has already given them without making any serious reciprocal commitments, especially in a conflict with China.
6) It was not clear from the Russians' speech that they were preparing for a lasting peace or that they had any particular trust in Trump. Rather, they seemed to be using the negotiations with the US to deepen the split between the US and Europe, as well as to gain time and more concessions towards their complete control over Ukraine. From this point of view, Putin's refusal to accept a full or any ceasefire at all was a logical development.
7) The naval panel focused on the threat to shipping from China, provocations against Japan and the Philippines, and the need for joint action. The participating Japanese admiral said that the Chinese threat and the war in Ukraine are seen as a common problem, and Japan is strategically seeking partnerships and alliances with the entire West. This is also an opportunity for Europe - it seems that Japan's positions on Ukraine are closer to those of Europe than to those of the United States.
8) The American economist Nouriel Roubini said that Trump will be forced by the markets to abandon his aggressive tariff policy: so far, they have indeed reacted very nervously and negatively to the tariff war launched by the United States. But Roubini also believes that Trump's business orientation, tax cuts, and reduction of the administration could also lead to serious growth for the United States, more significant than that of China. However, this will require innovation - the US, according to Roubini, is qualitatively ahead of China in new technologies, while the rest of the world (including Europe) lags behind both leaders.
9) There were no participants from China, and there were many questions from Indians to Europeans about whether they accept China as a partner. In general, India is looking for partners with whom it can oppose its powerful neighbor economically, and if necessary militarily. Europe is in a difficult situation - relations with China are increasingly tense, but at the same time China remains a serious economic and trade partner.
10) From this point of view, the issue of democracy - paradoxically - also becomes a key issue in international politics. It is true that politicians such as Trump, Orbán and Modi question the exact meaning of the term "democracy". Europe will definitely not and should not part with its constitutional and free democracy and will not be tempted to embark on the path of charismatic leadership with a bias towards autocracy. Recent events in Turkey, for example, show how charismatic populism can easily degenerate into a repressive regime. But despite this, or precisely because of this, it is necessary for democracies to support each other together, to help each other not to retreat from their common values, which are even spoken about by representatives of the new American administration. Former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott directly asked the Indian representatives: why don't you become the leader of the world's democracies and what are you looking for in organizations like BRICS, in which autocracies and dictatorships are the leading ones? This is a good question, which makes the signing of a trade agreement between the EU and India, as well as the deepening of relations between Europe and this country, even more important.
Why should global issues concern us as Bulgarians at all? In short, because in the coming years, trade and business will be largely subordinated to (geo)politics and for Bulgaria it is of utmost importance that the EU and Europe are not an isolated island with fading functions, but occupy a leading position in the world. Which European countries actually deserve and could achieve with good will, good coordination and cooperation among themselves.