The Baltic states, Poland, and perhaps Finland, intend to withdraw from the international treaty banning anti-personnel mines. This is a preparation for possible mining of borders with Russia. What is known?
The sense of threat felt in the Baltic states and Poland is most pronounced in Vilnius. The Lithuanian railway station Kiana on the border with Belarus is a little more than 30 kilometers from the Lithuanian capital. On a clear day, the Belarusian nuclear power plant in Ostrovets is clearly visible from the Vilnius TV tower.
Does Finland also want to mine the border?
Russian aggression against Ukraine has already prompted the Baltic states and Poland to take the historic decision to increase their military budgets to at least 5% of GDP. Now they have taken a new step: in mid-March, the four countries announced their intention to withdraw from the 1999 Ottawa Treaty, also known as the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention.
The convention was drafted and adopted after the end of the Cold War, when humanitarian considerations prevailed. Mines are considered a fairly effective way to combat infantry - but the threat of minefields to civilians is very great. Since 1999 Since then, more than 160 countries have joined the treaty - Russia, China and the United States are not among them. And now four countries are preparing to leave it at once.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna explained this move to DW: “Russia is not choosing its means in this brutal war it is waging. It is violating all possible agreements it has joined. We must first look at how to protect our country, NATO and the EU. Estonia will certainly approach this very responsibly“. Tallinn's top diplomat suggested that Finland, the NATO country with the longest common border with Russia, will also soon withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty.
Representatives of the Baltic states and Poland are not saying that the creation of minefields along the border with Russia will begin immediately, but they want to have such an opportunity. In an interview with DW, political scientist Linas Kojala, director of the Center for Geopolitics and Security Studies in Vilnius, explained that the decision to create minefields may encounter problems - and not of a financial nature.
Lack of military equipment
“In 2026, Lithuania's defense budget should reach 5.25% of GDP. Financial resources will not be the main obstacle“, Kojala is confident. The more serious problem, according to him, is the availability of the necessary equipment. “The time for defense deliveries is now longer than before.“
In Poland and the Baltics, there is broad support for any measures to strengthen defense capabilities, says Professor Slawomir Dembski, former director of the Polish Institute of International Relations. But Dembski says there is another problem: some military experts question the effectiveness of minefields in deterring an advancing army.
“When it comes to anti-personnel mines, everyone usually thinks of the Americans. In South Korea, they did create a system of defense against a possible North Korean attack, including minefields. But mines are only one element of this massive defense structure. It is unlikely that we in Europe will create something like this on the border with Russia“, Dembski tells DW.
Minefields are dangerous for the civilian population
There is also another aspect - the potential danger of minefields to the civilian population. Lithuanian international law lawyer Ritis Satkevicius told DW on this occasion: “I do not question the danger that Russia poses. But a convention signed by 160 countries is not just a treaty, but an element of customary international law. It cannot be withdrawn just because external circumstances have changed. This withdrawal must be carefully justified. Otherwise, Iran, for example, may decide tomorrow that it is in danger and that the only way to defend itself is to arm itself with chemical weapons.“
Professor Dembski from Poland categorically disagrees with this. He believes that human rights activists should not influence decision-making in this area at a time like the present: “Let them not consider hypotheses, but investigate the real crimes of Russia in Ukraine!“, he emphasizes.