Trump may find something to brag about in his first hundred days, but the lack of results is causing disappointment among Americans - trust in the president is at a record low, writes Daniel Smilov.
The first hundred days of Donald Trump's second term seemed like an eternity. This is because every day something happened that was overtaken by something else, even more unexpected and bizarre. Trump demanded Greenland, Canada and Panama, developed friendly relations with Russia, waged a customs war with China, but also with his allies and what not. The world's calmest hours were before Donald Trump's awakening overseas - after that, there was turmoil, bordering on chaos at times.
Because of this radical chaos and expectation of serious change, many spoke of a "revolution" of a conservative type that would end the post-war order throughout the world. Something new is being set, which is not clear exactly what it is, but it will definitely not be like the previous one. It is also not clear whether the change - whatever it may be - will be the result of some plan, or simply of experimental opportunism. After Trump's first hundred days, empirical support is more for the thesis of experimental opportunism, rather than for some ideological revolution.
The results of the first hundred days are, for the moment, rather unambiguously negative - from the economy to US domestic politics to international politics. None of Trump's bombastic boasting has come true so far - the "golden age" for stock markets or consumers has been postponed, the war in Ukraine has not stopped, the Gaza Strip is not about to become a resort, etc. The question is not whether there are any positives from the first hundred days, but whether the negatives that have accumulated can be seen as investments in the direction of future positives. Trump's defenders argue the latter. His opponents are not sure about the investment bonus from what has been done so far.
Economy
The American economy registered a decline of 0.3 percent of GDP in the first months of the year. This decline was surprising because it came against the backdrop of a strong economy from the previous year with very low expectations of a recession. Trump managed to raise these expectations to over 60 percent mainly through the uncertainty that his administration created. Investors and consumers have likely slowed down due to the sharp changes in economic course.
Tariffs
The biggest economic shock came from the radically high tariffs that Trump began to impose globally. On the one hand, this was justified as an attempt to bring industrial production back to the US, which is, however, a complex and long-term process. On the other hand, Trump seems to want to use the high tariffs as a negotiating trump card against US competitors. He has begun inviting countries, including China, to conclude new deals from which the US may gain some temporary benefit. But if the latter is the leading consideration, the shifts in the world order will be rather cosmetic and must be viewed sector by sector. Moreover, global players such as China and the EU have very strong trump cards in terms of trade, and it is by no means a foregone conclusion that after any negotiations all the positives will be for the US. It is very likely that the transaction costs and the chaos that was created will not be compensated by the possible benefits for this or that player after the smoke clears.
The Dollar and US Debt Securities
Trump's aggressive approach also showed the limitations he must take into account. In fact, the American president's boasts about his enormous negotiating superiority over the others turned out to be not entirely justified. Trump was forced to postpone the introduction of high tariffs on the world by 90 days, as interest rates on US government bonds began to rise threateningly, and stock markets also began to fall sharply. At the same time, the dollar fell in value against other major currencies, which was a demonstration that the world does not see it as a completely safe haven. These two facts also showed Trump's limitations: his experimental opportunism cannot afford for the US to lose its privileged financial status. If they do, with debt levels of over 120 percent of GDP, they are in a position similar to Italy in Europe. But unlike Italy, the US debt is also held by many foreigners (mainly Japanese and Chinese).
The limits of Trump’s experimentalism were also demonstrated when he tried to remove or pressure Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Markets have shown that if Trump politicizes US financial policy, confidence in the dollar and, above all, in the government’s ability to service its large debt will erode dramatically.
Pro-business policies and tax cuts
Donald Trump has a large non-revolutionary resource, and it is in traditional Republican Party policies - tax cuts, optimizing the costs of public institutions, reducing regulations for business. Many voted for Trump because of these policies, hoping that his other extravagant ideas would be more of a negotiating tool to achieve lower taxes and a good business environment. In the first hundred days, these very voters are disappointed because they received too little of what was important to them. The main benefits came in the form of more permits for fuel and mineral extraction, as well as Elon Musk's controversial policies with DOGE. The cost savings from such exercises will be minimal, if any, and they come at the cost of closing iconic US policies around the world, such as USAID, "Free Europe" etc.
Trump's idea of such large revenues from customs duties that they would make radical tax cuts possible is more of an illusion. In the end, taxes will be reduced at the expense of increasing the US public debt, as happened in Trump's first term.
Foreign policy
Trump promises to end the post-war international order imposed and maintained by the US, but it is not clear why he wants to do so and what he will replace it with. The idea that the US cannot afford to preserve it is misleading. After all, the US has enough allies - Europe, Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc., who would be happy to participate more actively in maintaining order. And other countries such as India, Argentina or Brazil would prefer this order to chaos or something unclear about BRICS and other formats. And here comes the paradox: instead of strengthening contacts with his allies - real and potential - Trump is actually trying to alienate them in every way, at the expense of ties with Putin and personal agreements with whomever.
The most inexplicable is the support of Trump and his team for the far right in Europe. The only goal of such a thing is the collapse of the EU and the weakening of Europe as a whole. Why Trump wants this in a world where Europe is his closest ally from every perspective remains a mystery.
There are also opinions that the US has exceeded its resources and should simply return to its borders. Usually these are not well-wishers of the US and their hopes are that the withdrawal of the Americans will lead to the return of Russians, Chinese, Turks or anyone else to their liking. The problem, however, is that the US cannot afford to retreat from its global role without a dramatic collapse of its own, and perhaps the world economy.
The War in Ukraine
Trump may really want to end the war in Ukraine. At the same time, however, his dislike of Ukraine and his warm feelings towards Russia are inexplicable with conventional arguments. After all, Trump has no cultural attachment to Russia and hardly distinguishes it sufficiently from Ukraine to differentiate his attitude. Russia currently represents an aggressive dictatorial regime, which is not clear what arouses sympathy in Trump. If what impresses the American president is strength, in the end the Russian Goliath has been waging war with Ukraine for the third year with varying success. It is as if Hitler in 1942 was still fighting battles not even for Warsaw, but for Krakow. So even a fascination with power cannot explain Trump's attitude.
The weakest theory is that Trump is attracting Russia to his side for a possible confrontation with China. However, Putin is not a person who makes decisions based on flattery and thrown knuckles. And here there is a big misunderstanding - after all, for Putin, the US remains a major competitor and enemy, unless, of course, China attacks the Russians. But such a scenario is not on the horizon for now, and relations between China and Russia are more than strategically close. So much for the theory that Trump is "Nixon in reverse".
The Middle East
Whatever Trump's goal in the Middle East is, so far he has not achieved anything substantial. The US's unreserved support for Israel's actions in Gaza will create additional long-term problems for Americans in the Islamic world. In the event of a possible strike against Iran, Russia's inaction could be important for the US and Israel. But even so, the favoring of Ukraine and the alienation of Turkey in order to get some Russian support seem like a horse for a chicken.
Fireworks
The capture of Greenland and Panama, the plans to make Canada the 51st state, Zelensky's arm-twisting to sign rare earth contracts, the plans for the Riviera in Gaza, etc. are all things that simply undermine the credibility of the US internationally and have no other effect.
Universities
The battle waged against Harvard and other universities risks turning the US, if not into Russia, then into a country of peasant partisanship. There have been periods in American history when their democracy worked exactly like this - the government changes and the new rulers start firing everyone on a party-partisan basis. The worrying thing is that so far only Harvard has opposed Trump's attempts to impose his party views through the instruments of the state. If Trump wins this battle, it will be temporary - until the next administration. And Americans hardly want to return to the times of "machine politics" from before the Watergate scandals. But let's see.
Conservative values
In the first three months, a lot has poured out on the heads of trans athletes and this "problem" has taken on gigantic proportions - as if it were not a matter of isolated cases. The options for identifying in some official documents in a way other than "man" and "woman" were also removed. Whatever happens on this front, the US is unlikely to turn into a homophobic, misogynistic and racist dictatorship of the majority. First, because there is no such majority. Second, because there are many free states in which "conservatives" will not succeed in imposing their policies. And anyway, which sports can trans athletes participate in is an interesting question and it hardly has a single correct answer. But it does not follow that the world is headed back to the 1950s and the restoration of the "separate but equal" doctrine, i.e. segregation. And if it's not about legalized homophobia, segregation, and misogyny, what exactly would the conservative "revolution" be?
***
Finally, few of Donald Trump's boastings have been backed up by actual results or even positive trends after his first hundred days in the White House. That doesn't mean, of course, that the boasting is diminishing - one can always boast that these were the most wonderfully bad first hundred days in American history. And that may even be true.
When it comes to experimental opportunism, however, results are of paramount importance. If such results are generally lacking, people are disappointed. And Americans definitely are, if we believe the public opinion polls - trust in Trump is the lowest trust in a president after his first hundred days in the coming decades.
Perhaps the greatest low trust in American history.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.