On May 9, President Radev did not line up in person with Fico and Vucic in Moscow, but still found a way to attend the parade, launching a special operation "referendum" in Bulgaria. Radev's political goals are several.
The plan is Byzantine - we are supposedly strengthening democracy in Bulgaria, but in fact an attempt is being made to hinder the country on its path to the euro. In his address, President Radev specifically asked everyone not to interpret his actions in this way. But the problem is that there is no other way to interpret these actions. The most well-intentioned reading would define them as a call for the mobilization of anti-European forces in Bulgaria and perhaps the start of Radev's party political project, which will build on the capital accumulated from the special operation “referendum“.
The choice of date for announcing the idea is also important. Europe Day coincides with Putin's military parades, which in the current situation are mostly a search for international support and justification for Russia's “special operation“ in Ukraine. At yesterday's edition, the big star was Xi Jinping, to whom Putin was tightly attached. President Radev did not line up physically next to Fico and Vucic, but he clearly showed with the announcement of the referendum in whose ranks he sees his place.
Why is it not about democracy
Radev claims that his action aims to make an important decision for the country by “consensus“. In fact, this is not possible in any country: for every key policy there would be serious opposition in the normal case. But let's say that the goal is maximum democratic legitimation of a given decision. Radev claims that despite the numerous pronouncements on the euro issue by fully democratically elected Bulgarian bodies, this is not enough. According to him, a referendum is necessary, since trust in these bodies is low.
However, representative democracy is just as legitimate as forms of direct democracy. Moreover, the main form of government is representative democracy, and referendums are rarely used in the world as a whole, and in some countries they are not used at all (for example, in Germany or the USA, there is no possibility of direct consultation of the people at the national level at all). The fact that for over 20 years, Bulgarian representative institutions have supported Bulgaria's membership in the eurozone is completely sufficient democratic legitimation for this policy. In the last four years, we have held seven parliamentary elections, and each of them has produced pro-European majorities that are also pro-eurozone. In such a situation, to claim that membership in the eurozone has no democratic legitimacy is unjustified and manipulative.
Why the referendum campaign will not be an information campaign for the euro
President Radev claims that a possible referendum will compensate for the lack of sufficient information among people about the euro. It will provide an opportunity to further convince citizens of the benefits of the common currency. There is a great deal of hypocrisy in this argument, because if someone really wants to convince citizens of the positives of the euro, perhaps they should do it without a referendum. In fact, those who are against the euro are in favor of holding a referendum. And Radev, who claims to be a special case.
The Constitution
A lot of talk has been poured out from the presidency about how the country's Constitution was trampled upon with the amendments that reduced the president's influence on caretaker governments. At the same time, however, Radev did not hesitate to demand a referendum, which even his legal advisor Krum Zarkov rightly considers unconstitutional. Krum Zarkov set an example of decent political behavior. The president is puzzling with his actions in this case.
Ultimately, referendums cannot be held for the country's international obligations. We have agreed that we will adopt the euro as soon as we meet the relevant conditions. At the moment, we are most likely already fully meeting them, and if we receive an invitation to the eurozone based on the fulfillment of these conditions, we must accept it. This is the legal side of things and there is no place for a referendum in it. The Constitutional Court has also ruled in this direction, although in a slightly different context.
Party Positioning
It is clear that there will be no referendum, since such a decision will not be made by the National Assembly. But the political goals of Radev's operation are several. First, some confusion will be introduced into the ruling majority. ITN and BSP may decide to side with Radev on this issue. This will make the votes of PP-DB decisive, if we assume that GERB and “New Beginning“ will monolithically stand against the referendum. It is unlikely that ITN and BSP will leave the government on this issue, but in any case, some commotion will be created. At the very least, there will be an occasion - serious enough - for the fall of the government and new elections, which in itself is a destabilizing fact.
Second, Radev becomes the spokesman for the Eurosceptics with this move and unites the Eurosceptic opposition in the country. “Vazrazhdane“, “Mech“ and “Velicie“ are not much, but even if Radev stands behind them, a more coherent and respectable grouping results. With open valences towards ITN and BSP, which also allows for expansion towards the political center.
Thirdly, it becomes clear what kind of party Radev will try to make: it will be more centrist than “Vazrazhdane“, but more Eurosceptic than BSP and ITN. The special operation “referendum“ will actually be the platform on which Radev's possible party project will stand. Interestingly, with this positioning he lost one of his most promising associates - Zarkov. Which means that Radev's project will use Russophile and Eurosceptic politicians.
Anchor of the Bulgarian pro-European course
It should be known that the eurozone is an anchor that would hold the Bulgarian European course. Some have already navigated with their bodies at the parade in Moscow. Others - only with their minds. Some are trying to cut the anchor rope with a hacksaw. Others - with a referendum.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State News Agency as a whole.