With the proposal for negotiations in Turkey, Putin wanted to show Trump that he was ready to negotiate, and also to set a trap for Zelensky to fall into. But something else happened. The Ukrainian leader outsmarted him, writes Ivan Preobrazhensky.
The presidents of Ukraine and the United States said that they were ready to arrive in Istanbul for negotiations on May 15. Donald Trump, however, with the proviso that he would be there if he saw that “there could be development”. The intrigue now is whether Putin will go at all. Apart from Trump, however, no one seems to be counting on this.
Putin had other intentions
Vladimir Putin himself set in motion a process that he can no longer control now. This process began with his decision to declare a unilateral truce with Ukraine for the days associated with the celebration of the victory in World War II - in the hope that Ukraine would be forced to follow his example if it did not want to damage its reputation in the eyes of Donald Trump.
Putin believed that in this way he would once again prove to the American administration his ability to make deals, as well as provide greater security in Moscow during the parade, which was also attended by foreign leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping. At the same time, Putin believed that thanks to this deft manipulation, there would be no need to negotiate anything with Ukraine.
Unexpected twist
However, Putin's idea was criticized even by Donald Trump himself, and even more sharply by Vice President J.D. Vance. In the end, the leaders of Britain, Germany, Poland and France, together with Volodymyr Zelensky, found a way to put Putin himself in the most uncomfortable situation possible, trying to force a 30-day ceasefire on him. They insisted that this be done by May 12, as a continuation of the failed unilateral ceasefire of May 9. The United States supported them.
And then, speaking in the spirit of Kremlin propaganda, Putin tried to show that he had outsmarted everyone. After calling a night briefing, at which "due to the late hour" it was forbidden to ask him questions, the Russian leader gave Ukraine an ultimatum - that he was sending his delegation to Istanbul for negotiations on May 15 and expected the Ukrainians to be there too. In this way, he tried to put the ceasefire on the back burner. Putin claimed that he did not want to give the Ukrainian army a chance to rearm and regroup.
In reality, however, it is clear that the Kremlin does not want to stop its offensive against Ukraine. Given that Putin has resumed his tirade about "negotiations without preconditions", it is clear that what he wants is to allow the Russian army to continue its offensive, while only imitating negotiations. And not to make any new concessions - not before he has convinced Trump to lift more sanctions against Russia. Or at least until the end of the season suitable for combat operations, which ends in late autumn.
Putin pretends not to notice the challenge
Zelensky's corresponding ultimatum that he will wait for Putin in Istanbul has crushed the Russian president's manipulation. Trump did indeed call on Ukraine to accept Russia's offer for talks in Istanbul, but after Zelensky's offer for a direct summit, face-to-face with Putin, it turned out that the US had asked Putin to attend just such a meeting. Now Washington and the EU are speaking in unison about possible sanctions if Russia neither ceases fire nor agrees to talks in Istanbul.
Putin is probably furious. We have not yet seen a response from him. Separate publications by Kremlin propagandists that it is "wrong" for their bosses to meet with someone so "insignificant" like Zelensky and that they should send a delegation led by someone like presidential advisor Vladimir Medinsky, as in 2022, does not solve the Kremlin's problem.
However, the President of Ukraine announced today (May 13) that the format of the negotiations on May 15 in Istanbul does not imply the participation of any other Russian representative, except the President of Russia, and that he would negotiate only with him.
Now Putin will either show that he is afraid of a direct meeting with Zelensky and "does not obey" Trump, or he risks finding himself in a much worse position than the one Zelensky found himself in during the meeting at the White House. As Trump would say, Putin simply does not hold winning cards in his hands at the moment. And he cannot give up the game.
Games of "offended greatness"
As a result of his own manipulations, Putin himself has fallen into a trap. He has only one way to prove to the Americans that Russia wants to negotiate. If he does not go to Istanbul in person, but sends a delegation at any level, his absence may be forgiven, and Trump will probably magnanimously overlook the cowardice shown. After all, it is about finding a realistic plan to end the war, and not about some kind of "denazification" that the Americans have been trying to drive out of Putin's head from the very beginning of the negotiations.
But then the Kremlin will no longer be able to maneuver, avoiding further substantive negotiations. And it will also be difficult to continue the offensive in parallel with them. So the most likely option is a childish insult game. It has already begun when Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia cannot be talked to with ultimatums. Therefore, it can be expected that Putin will now play out scenes of “offended majesty“. And the only question is whether Trump, who himself likes to use this technique in negotiations, will accept such a Russian apology, or will impose a new package of sanctions together with the Europeans.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.