A referendum on the euro…. A simple wish of President Rumen Radev or a strategic move with a political purpose. Sveltin Tachev from the sociological agency “Myara“ spoke to FACTI.
- Mr. Tachev, has the word “referendum“ become political chewing gum after President Rumen Radev questioned the adoption of the euro and requested a referendum?
- I emphasize that when I talk about referendums, I am biased because my scientific interests are focused on civic participation. In principle, this tool is not a panacea, but it is one of the best forms of direct participation of the population. The main problem with it is that in most cases it is used for political purposes. In the conditions of crisis, in recent decades, in Europe, the referendum has become an attractive option for a political statement in the search for alternatives.
A referendum was held in Greece to exit the eurozone, Great Britain produced BREXIT, etc.
In Bulgaria, around every political crisis, attempts to hold a national referendum begin, usually with a play on populist themes - reducing the number of members of parliament, changing the form of government, changing the electoral system, etc. “There is such a people“ created their party on the basis of the referendum initiated by Slavi Trifonov, which almost fell short of having an imperative character. In recent years, both ITN, BSP, and “Vazrazhdane“ have made unsuccessful attempts, for one reason or another, to provoke a referendum. However, the holding of national referendums in Bulgaria in most cases fails due to the restrictions in the Law on Direct Participation of Citizens. Therefore, playing with this instrument of direct participation now assumes a political character rather than a real opportunity to consult the public.
- Does the referendum as an instrument of civic participation make sense in Bulgaria at all…
- The referendum always makes sense. Direct democracy should not be in antagonism with representative democracy, but should complement it. A democratic system that relies only on elections usually falls into crisis because citizens become alienated from political processes and distrust of institutions and parties increases.
Of course, referendums are a very powerful tool and can become a weapon if used for political purposes.
That is why political elites are often afraid of the opinion of the majority.
For many years in Europe, there was talk of expertise, in which specialists know what is best for everyone. It turned out that this also has its flaws.
In order for such instruments to function well at the national level, training, experience, and an information campaign are needed to create the ground for some kind of tradition. Changes to the Law on Direct Participation are also needed. I do not see a desire for such a thing. In Bulgaria, however, referendums at the local level function well because the locals know the specifics of their communities best. The last one I can think of is from a village in Veliko Tarnovo - for changing the name of the settlement.
- Radev has repeatedly stated that he supports Bulgaria's entry into the Eurozone, but his thesis seems to have been politicized, although he called on the parties not to do this. In fact, how did you understand his proposal - "for" or "against", or for postponing the adoption of the euro...
- From what the president has stated, for him the issue of Bulgaria's entry into the Eurozone is not at issue. Rumen Radev has repeatedly said that he supports it. He has also spoken out about the "Renaissance" referendum. That is why his proposal for a time frame is more of a political move.
- On March 13, the president told students in Plovdiv that there could be no referendum on the euro, and on May 9 he addressed the nation with exactly such a request. A 180-degree turn. Why…
- It seems to me that his proposal is not based on the idea of holding a referendum, but on the exact opposite - to reject it. I doubt that Radev was unaware that the National Assembly would not allow such a referendum. Rejecting the referendum is an attempt at direct mobilization along the "people-government" axis, through which he would declare that "those in power are afraid of the people's opinion". And this is exactly what is seen from their reactions. Thus, Radev is packaging the Euro-Atlantic formations, through which he can stand as the "anti-status quo". In such a situation, PP-DB may fall into an explanatory mode as to why they are together with MPS-New Beginning and GERB-SDS, even though they declare themselves as opposition. Especially if the topic of corruption is raised.
This could also be the historical end for the BSP.
With the Left, there is a discrepancy between the electorate and the leadership on the issue of the euro. And although the National Council stated that it supports the government's efforts for Bulgaria's entry into the Eurozone, some local structures stood behind Radev's idea. In this regard, “There is such a people“ made a move that would not discredit themselves – they supported the referendum as an instrument of civic participation. After all, Slavi Trifonov's party was created on this basis.
- Was this a test for accumulating possible future electoral capital?
- It looks like it. It depends on whether he wants to enter the political scene after a certain period of time. And Bulgarians have not stopped being dissatisfied with their political representatives and looking for alternatives to vote for. This is how Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, Boyko Borisov, Slavi Trifonov, and even Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev came. The BSP is almost absent in the left space and leaves a vacuum for something new to fill it. The activity of DPS-New Beginning would also give rise to a search for a counterpoint. And Rumen Radev has always positioned himself as a critic of any government. So far, however, he has used topics that have wide recognition - March 3, corruption, etc. That is, an opportunity to attract dissatisfied people from the entire political spectrum. For the first time, he is taking a position on a topic that is already used by a certain political niche, which would limit some of his possible supporters. Of course, there is also a large mass of people who do not vote because they are disappointed and boycott.
- The Parliament expectedly rejected the referendum. And now what...? - In general, his move is extremely risky and could be both successful and negative for him. The question is whether Rumen Radev has a strategy in place, because the rejection of the referendum was clear. Now he is appealing to the Constitutional Court. We will see how things will develop.
- There will be presidential elections next year. What can be allowed and what can we expect from Rumen Radev in the remaining time?
- Many analysts are wondering whether he missed his time to enter the political scene. He had such an opportunity several times, but he did not. Of course, such an action could have the opposite effect. That is probably why he is not taking risks. However, now he has a regular government and it is interested in long-term political stability. The longer he governs, the more he will retain the possibility of a wave of a new project. That is why Rumen Radev needs a confrontation between him and the government to maintain tension and interest.