It is claimed that the coup in Armenia was planned for September 21. The government believes that it has thwarted plans to destabilize the country, while the opposition speaks of falsification. What's happening in Armenia.
Bagrat Galstanyan is a famous and controversial Armenian priest, leader of the religious movement "Holy Struggle" and a fierce critic of the government in Yerevan. On June 25, he was detained during a large-scale operation by the services in Armenia.
According to the Armenian authorities, the head of the Tavush diocese organized a coup, in which between 200 and 250 specially organized groups were supposed to take part. Their goal - to strike at the country's transport and energy infrastructure and to join in the violent overthrow of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The coup was supposed to take place on September 21, and in the weeks before that, its organizers wanted to destabilize the government and collapse support for it.
A real plan or an attempt to discredit the opposition?
The detailed plan for the coup was published by the ruling party “Civil Contract“. Based on what was written in it, charges were brought against Galstanyan for preparing a terrorist attack, an attempt to seize power and preparing a coup. Investigators have detained a total of 14 people and conducted 90 searches.
However, the opposition accuses Pashinyan and his associates of the plan being a fabrication aimed at silencing critics. During the detention, the priest threatened the prime minister: "You fraud, listen carefully: No matter what you do, you have little time left. We will come for you soon." This is what he shouted to journalists as the police took him away.
The suspicions of attempted coups and interference in the country's governance are not new. In early June, the authorities in Yerevan detained billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian oligarch who is also accused of attempting a coup. Karapetyan owns the company "Tashir" and is one of the largest energy investors in Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that the state would nationalize Karapetyan's largest asset in Armenia - Electric Networks, which is the largest electricity distribution operator and represents critical infrastructure for the country. Before his detention, the billionaire had stated that he would support the church's actions against the government.
Is Moscow involved in the events?
The tension in recent weeks coincides with a period of sharp deterioration in relations between the government and representatives of the Armenian Apostolic Church, whom the authorities accuse of political interference and violation of canonical order.
Moscow, represented by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, criticized Karapetyan's detention. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the events of recent days as "an internal matter of Armenia," but noted that he was in contact with Yerevan regarding the arrest of the businessman, who is a Russian citizen.
Against this background, hints of "external interference" and "hybrid attacks" began to appear in the public rhetoric of the ruling circles. While activists and human rights defenders who criticize the Kremlin’s policies in Armenia openly point the finger at Russia, the authorities have avoided direct accusations against Moscow.
Attempts to normalize relations with neighbors
Nikola Pashinyan came to power after anti-government protests in Armenia in 2018 that led to the resignation of longtime leader Serzh Sargsyan. Pashinyan was elected on a promise to improve relations with Turkey, achieve a truce with Azerbaijan, and distance the country from Russian influence. He has accepted that Azerbaijan will seize the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, forcing more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee the area. To make peace with Baku, a neighbor that is far richer and better armed than Yerevan, Pashinyan has also agreed to cede several villages in northern Armenia. These villages are part of the Galstanyan diocese. That is where the conflict between the two arose.
Yerevan is now also in dialogue with Turkey, where Pashinyan traveled last week to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It seems that the prime minister is ready to abandon even Armenia's international efforts to recognize the massacre of Armenians by the Ottoman army in 1915 as genocide.
Criticism within the country
Are these the sacrifices needed to achieve peace and normalize Armenia's relations with its dangerous and well-armed neighbors? Not at all, Armenian political scientist Artur Kachikyan told ARD. "It's more like a prolonged capitulation. Pashinyan is constantly giving in," he believes. Whatever the heads of state of Azerbaijan and Turkey wanted, Pashinyan accepted it. "He gave up Nagorno-Karabakh, refused to receive at least guarantees for the security of the people living there. He simply gave in and lied to us."
The moves of the prime minister and the ruling party are not well received by the population. Parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia next year. According to a recent public opinion poll, only 15 percent of respondents still trust Prime Minister Pashinyan. His party "Civil Contract" has also lost a significant portion of its support - today only 11 percent would vote for it. The problem, however, is that the situation of the opposition parties is even worse. None of them reaches double-digit approval ratings.