US President Donald Trump, a self-proclaimed peacemaker campaigning for the Nobel Peace Prize, finally got his diplomatic victory, which was documented by the press cameras yesterday, when leaders from around the world flew to Egypt to sign the ceasefire and hostage release deal that he negotiated between Israel and “Hamas“, writes BTA.
But lasting peace has yet to take root, and until that happens, analysts and diplomats say Trump will have to keep up the pressure on the leader whose support he will need for the next phase of his plan for Gaza – namely Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
US presidents from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden have also dealt with the strong-willed and difficult-to-get-together Israeli leader. And even Trump administration officials have been frustrated by some of Israel’s military strikes, which they said undermined US policy.
But this month, Trump managed to get Netanyahu to accept his framework for a more comprehensive peace deal, while convincing other Middle Eastern countries to persuade Hamas to return all Israeli hostages, which were seen as the group’s key leverage in the war.
Things could get more complicated from here, though. Israel and Hamas remain deeply divided on many aspects of Trump’s 20-point peace plan. And Israel is preparing for elections next year, and Netanyahu's approach could change as he tries to keep his right-wing coalition united.
We are entering a political year when everything is about the election campaign, and Netanyahu's calculations could shift from making concessions under U.S. pressure to trying to ensure his own political survival, said Nimrod Goren, chairman of the Israeli foreign policy think tank Mitvim.
The strength of Trump's peace plan is also its weakness, diplomats and analysts say.
The document at the heart of the deal also leaves a lot to be desired, and neither side is actually in agreement on all the details or all of its terms. This vagueness of the plan was key to getting both sides to sign it, but it also means that the hardest diplomatic work is just beginning.
Among the potential sticking points in Trump's peace plan is the issue of disarming Hamas and ensuring that the Palestinian movement has no role in a future administration in Gaza. While Hamas agreed to the broad outlines of Trump's plan, the group's official response did not mention these specific terms of the plan, and Hamas leaders said they actually see a role for them in the post-war governance of Gaza.
“There are many ways things could go wrong here,“ said John Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and a former U.S. State Department official.
“It's hard to think of another international agreement that has left so much to be worked out later,“ the analyst added.
A senior U.S. official suggested that Trump has gained influence over Netanyahu in part because of his strong support for Israel on other important issues. The first Trump administration officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and the disputed Golan Heights as part of the country, two things the Israeli government had long sought.
"One thing President Trump did with Israel was he didn't try to moderate. He was basically 100 percent with Israel. And that's exactly why he helped move things in the right direction,“ the US official said.
Trump has had mixed success in exerting political pressure on Netanyahu. In July, Israel bombed the Syrian defense ministry in Damascus, even though the United States made clear at the time that it was seeking to expand ties with the new Syrian government. For months, Trump has provided Netanyahu with political support for Israel's actions in Gaza amid growing concerns among European and Arab allies about the humanitarian situation in the enclave. But a tougher Trump has emerged in recent weeks. He forced Netanyahu to call the leader of Qatar to apologize after Israel's failed strike on Hamas negotiators in that country in September. Trump ultimately forced Netanyahu to sign the 20-point plan for Gaza despite the Israeli leader's misgivings.
Trump is likely to have some leverage over Netanyahu at this point, given the US president's considerable popularity in Israel, Alterman said. "Trump's biggest advantage is that he is much more popular in Israel than Netanyahu, and he can either prop up Netanyahu's political future or sabotage it," the analyst added.
In his speech to the Israeli parliament on Monday, Trump also took a humorous tone toward Netanyahu, suggesting he feels no need to treat Netanyahu with any special respect. "Well, look, now you can be a little cooler, Bibi, because you're not at war anymore," Trump joked.
But next year's elections could change Netanyahu's political calculus in ways that are hard to predict.
Hard-right supporters Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich could theoretically threaten Netanyahu's ruling coalition if they are sufficiently angered by the decision to halt military operations against „Hamas“.
Analysts warn that Hamas's procrastination on the issue of disarmament could lead hard-line right-wing members of Israel's ruling coalition to pressure Netanyahu to resume military operations in Gaza, thus undermining Trump's deal.
“We are concerned that Hamas is still announcing today that it will remain in power in Gaza“, said Simcha Rothman, a member of the Religious Zionist party and Netanyahu's ruling coalition. “We are not satisfied with any deal that is not a complete capitulation of Hamas“. "We will not accept any partial victory," Rothman stressed.
Another issue that could prove thorny: a clause in the peace plan that allows for the possibility of a future Palestinian state, which analysts say most Israelis would find difficult to accept after Hamas's attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
Dan Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said that if Israeli government and opposition politicians campaign strongly against the creation of such a state, it could limit the willingness of Arab countries to pressure Hamas to fulfill its obligations under the Trump agreement. "It was important to include this issue in the plan to get the support of Arab countries and to get them to do their part," Shapiro said. "But if there is a political discourse that rejects completely and forever the creation of a Palestinian state, then I think that could affect the enthusiasm of the Arab countries to fulfill the role that they are called to fulfill under the plan," he added.