Finally, self-proclaimed peacemaker US President Donald Trump scored a diplomatic victory, which he was able to demonstrate for the cameras on Monday when he joined a number of world leaders in Egypt to sign a ceasefire in Gaza and a swap of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, which he brokered between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).
But analysts say consolidating the will for lasting peace requires Trump to keep up the pressure on the man whose support he will need in the next stages of his plan: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
American presidents, from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden, have had difficulty working with the stubborn Israeli leader, and even Trump administration officials have been frustrated by some Israeli military strikes that they say undermine U.S. policy.
But this month, Trump managed to convince Netanyahu to accept his plan to end the war in Gaza, while also persuading Middle Eastern countries to pressure Hamas to return all Israeli hostages, a key lever for the movement during the war.
But the hard work will begin after that point.
With Israel and Hamas remaining deeply divided on several aspects of Trump’s 20-point plan, and as Israel prepares for elections next year, Netanyahu’s approach could change as he tries to preserve the integrity of his right-wing coalition.
The head of the Israel Institute for Regional Foreign Policy (Mitvim), an Israeli think tank, noted that Israel “is entering a political year in which everything is tied to the election campaign, and Netanyahu’s calculations could shift from retreat to pressure and to try to ensure its political survival“.
While many observers see the strength of Trump’s peace plan as well as its weakness.
The document that underpins the deal is largely vague, and neither side has agreed on the exact details of each clause. That vagueness was a key factor in persuading both sides to sign, but it also means that some of the most difficult diplomatic work is just beginning.
Among the potential sticking points in Trump’s peace plan is the agreement to disarm Hamas and relinquish any role in the future governance of Gaza.
While Hamas has broadly accepted Trump’s plan, its official response does not specifically address these provisions. The movement's leaders have indicated that they already see a role for themselves in governing Gaza after the war.
“It's hard to remember an international agreement that left so much to be decided later,“ said John Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former State Department official.
He said Trump has gained influence over Netanyahu through his strong support for Israel on other important issues. During his first term, he officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and annexed the Golan Heights to Israel, both things Israeli governments have long sought to achieve.
Trump has a mixed record when it comes to exerting political pressure on Netanyahu.
Last July, Israel bombed the Syrian Defense Ministry compound in Damascus, just as the United States was seeking to expand its relations with the new Syrian government. At the time, the U.S. president had been providing Netanyahu with political cover in Gaza for months, despite growing humanitarian concerns among European and Arab allies.
But Trump has seemed more assertive in recent weeks, forcing Netanyahu to call the emir of Qatar to apologize after a botched Israeli airstrike in September targeting a Hamas negotiating delegation in Doha. He also forced Netanyahu to sign the US 20-point plan despite his misgivings.
Trump appears to be able to influence Netanyahu because of his great popularity in Israel. He enjoys far greater political popularity in Israel than Netanyahu... He can either support Netanyahu's political future or destroy it.“
But next year's elections could change Netanyahu's political calculus in ways that are difficult to predict.
Observers warn that delaying Hamas's disarmament could lead right-wing elements in the Israeli government to pressure Netanyahu to resume military operations in Gaza, effectively undermining the deal with Trump.
Another potentially troubling issue is a clause in the Gaza agreement that allows for the possibility of a Palestinian state in the future. Observers believe that most Israelis will find this clause difficult to accept after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.
Dan Shapiro, the former US ambassador to Israel, believes that the willingness of Arab states to pressure Hamas to fulfill its obligations under the Trump agreement could be limited if politicians in Netanyahu's government and opposition forces launch a large-scale campaign against the creation of a Palestinian state.
“It was very necessary to include (this point) in order to get the support of Arab countries and to play their role,“ he said.
He added: “If the political discourse is a complete rejection of the creation of a Palestinian state forever, I believe that this could affect the enthusiasm of Arab parties to play the roles that they need to play.“