US President Donald Trump's unexpected step - imposing sanctions on Russia's largest oil companies - will not paralyze the war machine of Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin, but it will help the EU get rid of Russian oil forever.
The details are still being worked out, but theoretically the sanctions could force companies to sell assets and cut off remaining oil supplies through pipelines to Europe, writes Politico. "This is a significant step. It will force European countries and companies that continue to buy Russian oil to review those deals by November 21, when the measures go into effect," said Kimberly Donovan, a sanctions expert at the Atlantic Council think tank.
The announcement came a month after Trump sharply criticized Europe for its "unforgivable" continued purchases of Russian energy resources, which provide about a quarter of the Kremlin's military budget.
For Moscow, the new sanctions mean immediate losses, but they are unlikely to undermine its military efforts in Ukraine, Politico reports. According to David Fife, chief economist at Argus Consulting, Rosneft and Lukoil provide about two-thirds of the 4.4 million barrels of oil exported daily by Russia.
The restrictions could "take half of it off the market" of this volume, as they will prohibit companies from selling oil for dollars - a currency used almost exclusively in global energy trade.
The sanctions will hit "Lukoil" particularly hard, said a former top company executive who asked not to be named. According to him, the company will likely be forced to sell stakes in foreign projects - from Egypt to Iraq, which will lead to a loss of up to 20% of revenue.
However, the largest buyers of Russian oil - China and India - will most likely continue to import it, says Homayun Falakshahi, head of the oil analysis department at Kpler. Russia offers them raw materials at lower prices, and Beijing has almost no alternatives.
It is reported that after a short pause, "most buyers will return to purchases" as soon as they find workarounds - for example, through intermediaries who hide the Russian origin of the oil.
The new measures may have a more tangible impact on Europe. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the EU has sought to reduce its dependence on Russian energy resources: Brussels imposed an embargo on the import of oil, fuel and coal by sea and reduced Russia's share of the gas market from 45% to 13%.
"Rosneft" in Europe has actually lost its positions after Germany took control of its subsidiaries in 2022. A German economy ministry spokesman said the US measures "are not aimed at the German divisions of Rosneft, which are under state control". On Thursday, the European Union also tightened its own sanctions against Rosneft.
The situation with "Lukoil" is different: Russia's largest private oil company owns hundreds of gas stations in the EU (including around 200 in Belgium), large refineries in Romania and Bulgaria, and a 45% stake in an oil refinery in the Netherlands. It continues to supply oil to Hungary and Slovakia, which until now depended on Moscow by 86-100% and have used their right to an exemption from sanctions, stubbornly resisting EU pressure.
Now the situation is changing. The US Treasury Department has said it may impose sanctions on anyone who continues to work with "Lukoil" or "Rosneft". This means that European banks will no longer make payments to these companies.
"This is a strong signal to European business - it is necessary to urgently stop cooperation, otherwise they themselves will find themselves under sanctions", Donovan noted. The European Commission, for its part, confirmed that it is considering its own ban on financial operations with "Lukoil".
For Hungary and Slovakia, this creates serious risks. "If sanctions come into force, imports will simply stop", admitted one of the Slovak officials.
The effect is already being felt: the Finnish company Neste has stopped fuel supplies to "Lukoil" subsidiary Teboil, and in Romania the authorities have demanded that the company sell the Petrotel oil refinery by the end of next month. According to sources, the Netherlands also expects a sale of its Lukoil stake soon, and the Bulgarian refinery Neftokhim will be forced to cease operations from November 21 if it does not change ownership.