The State Department's domestic intelligence agency earlier this year expressed doubts about the idea that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, diverging from the Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) more optimistic assessment of potential talks, according to several current and former officials, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Analysts at the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research, known as INR, expressed this opposing view in assessments and briefings in the months leading up to President Trump's meeting with his Russian counterpart in August in Anchorage, Alaska. The disagreement also appeared in the president's daily briefing, according to current and former officials.
As the WSJ specifies, the State Department's disagreement with the Russian Federation's readiness for negotiations was not previously reported.
According to the State Department, several analysts were subsequently fired in connection with the administration's directive to reduce the number of federal employees.
A State Department representative explained the dismissals as a reorganization of the department, adding that analysts from the bureau's Russia-Eurasia group were not subject to attacks and the department, as before, is able to make important assessments.
The WSJ notes that intelligence assessments often play a key role for presidents in important diplomatic negotiations. Some former officials fear that the administration will not get an accurate picture of events if its intelligence analysts feel compelled to provide assessments that align with policy.
From the very beginning of the Trump administration, U.S. officials have asked intelligence analysts for numerous classified assessments and briefings on the Ukraine issue to determine Putin’s goals and gauge his willingness to negotiate an end to the war, according to sources.
Several people familiar with the reports also said that CIA analysts, in response to administration inquiries, prepared assessments that concluded that Trump could find opportunities to negotiate with Putin.
According to two former officials, the CIA’s assessments were sometimes optimistic about the prospects for reaching a common language with the Russian leadership.
At the same time, State Department intelligence concluded that that Putin ultimately will not want to give up his maximalist demands. This is a conclusion that independent analysts have also reached in recent months.
The WSJ also reports that in the spring of 2025, the head of the State Department told analysts in meetings with staff that the ongoing differences were undermining the authority of the INR among the administration's staff. Then, in July, three analysts who worked in the INR's Russia-Eurasia group were fired. Another analyst resigned.
"The State Department closed the intelligence directorate that worked with private-sector experts and another that was responsible for reducing the level of intelligence data for sharing with allies. The State Department also merged INR's Europe and Russia and Eurasia groups, and several European analysts were laid off or reassigned, former officials said.
However, the State Department said this was done to reduce staffing for security reasons.