Viktor Orban plans to create new anti-Ukraine alliance in the EU

Hungary wants to join forces with the Czech Republic and Slovakia to form a Ukraine-skeptical alliance in the EU, a senior political adviser to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told Politico's European editorial team.

Orban hopes to unite with Andrej Babis, whose right-wing populist party won the Czech Republic's recent parliamentary elections, as well as with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, to coordinate their positions ahead of meetings of EU leaders, including summits, the adviser said.

While no firm political agreement has yet been reached, forming such an alliance could significantly complicate EU efforts to support Ukraine financially and militarily.

"I think it will happen – and it will become increasingly visible", says the prime minister's political director, Balazs Orban, when asked about the possibility of the Ukraine-skeptical alliance starting to act as a bloc in the European Council.

"This worked very well during the migration crisis. That's how we managed to resist", he says of the so-called "Visegrad 4" group, made up of Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, at a time when the eurosceptic "PiS" party was in power in Warsaw after 2015.

The then Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, took the lead as the largest member of the alliance, with the "V4" group promoted pro-family policies as well as strong external borders for the EU, and opposed any forced relocation of migrants between member states.

The "Visegrad Four" alliance collapsed after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Poland took an aggressive stance towards Moscow and Hungary took the opposite position.

A new Visegrad Alliance would have three, not four, members. Poland's current centrist prime minister, Donald Tusk, is a staunch supporter of Ukraine and is unlikely to enter into any alliance with Orbán.

However, Fico and Babis share the Hungarian leader's view on Ukraine, calling for dialogue with Moscow rather than economic pressure. Babis has been criticized for his public skepticism about supporting further European aid to Kiev, with the current Czech foreign minister warning in an interview with a Brussels-based media outlet that Babis would act as Orban's "puppet" at the European Council table.

However, reforming the Visegrad Group may take some time. Despite being re-elected as Slovakia's prime minister in 2023, Fico has not reached a formal cooperation with the Hungarian leader on specific policy areas. Babis has yet to form a government after his party's recent election victory.

Beyond the Visegrad Troika

Hungary's efforts for political alliances in Brussels go beyond the European Council, says Balazs Orban.

The Hungarian prime minister's Fidesz party, part of the far-right Patriots for Europe group, could expand its partnerships in the European Parliament, he says, citing the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists group, the far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations group and the left-wing European Union as potential allies. and "some left-wing groups".

Mainstream parties, such as the centrist European People's Party, could sooner or later turn against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, destroying the centrist majority that supported her re-election, the adviser said.

"So this reconstruction of the [Visegrad Four] continues. We have the third largest faction in the European Parliament. We have a network of think tanks that is widespread here [in Brussels] and there is also a transatlantic extension. And we are looking for partners, allies on every issue.”

The Matthias Corvinus Collegium, a think tank that receives most of its funding from allies of the Hungarian leader and is chaired by Balazs Orban, has expanded its presence in Brussels since its launch in 2022.

The Hungarian prime minister, who has been in power for 15 years, faces a re-election battle next year. According to a POLITICO poll, opposition leader Péter Magyar’s Tisza party is currently more popular than his Fidesz party. Orban.

Asked about the upcoming election campaign, the aide said it would be "difficult, as always" and accused Brussels of what he called "an organized, coordinated effort to oust the Hungarian government", which included "political support for the opposition".

The European Commission says the measures to withhold funds from Hungary stem from Budapest's failure to comply with EU law, not a political agenda.

When asked whether Budapest continues to support Hungarian Health Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi, who media reports have said was responsible for recruiting spies into EU institutions when he was an EU diplomat, Orbán said the commissioner was "doing an excellent job".

"These are just... questions that are used to portray Hungary as a country that is not loyal to the institutions", he added. "We want to be in. We are part of the club".