The battle for the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk is intensifying. What will be the effect if Pokrovsk falls? According to experts, its loss would not end the defense of Donbass, but would be a heavy moral blow to Ukraine.
Pokrovsk is located in the western part of Donetsk Oblast and is considered the "western gate to Donbass". Before the war, about 70,000 people lived here, most of whom spoke Russian, and the industrial city was known for its coal mining, construction materials production, mechanical engineering, but also in cultural terms: the Christmas song "Carol of the Bells" originates from Pokrovsk, writes the German public media ARD.
For two years, the city has been under constant fire - from artillery, drones and guided bombs. Now it could become the first major city after Avdiivka that Russia has taken over. Back in the summer, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance units reached parts of the city's territory, ARD recalls.
"Immense superiority" of Russian troops
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, about 170,000 Russian soldiers are concentrated in the Pokrovsk region - "an enormous superiority". About 200 infantrymen have already penetrated the city. Western estimates suggest around 20 regiments and brigades with up to 40,000 soldiers, while the Ukrainian side has around 12,000 defenders.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia is suffering significant losses in the Pokrovsk direction. According to the Ukrainian security service SBU, over 1,500 Russian soldiers were killed in October alone, and 20 tanks, 62 armored vehicles and over 500 vehicles were destroyed.
Geolocalized photos show Russian advances in Rodynske, Sukhestke and the southern part of Pokrovsk. The ISW also observes deception tactics employed by Russian troops: fighters operate in civilian clothes to infiltrate Ukrainian lines - an approach that is considered a war crime. In addition, Russian infiltration units are apparently trying to advance through "gray zones" between residential buildings and bunkers. According to ISW data, Russia is currently rarely using armored vehicles. Instead, infantry groups operate in small formations and penetrate Ukrainian positions. This tactic has intensified since the summer and is causing heavy losses on both sides.
Military expert: Loss would have a dangerous moral effect
Ukrainian military expert Mykola Beleskov explained to ARD that the possible loss of Pokrovsk "would significantly complicate Ukraine's operational situation". Russia is using the city both as a military target and as a means of political pressure. "If Russia completely captures Pokrovsk, it will not represent any strategic turn, but it will have an important symbolic meaning. It will be a visible success that can be used both domestically and in international negotiations," the expert says.
Beleskov emphasizes that Pokrovsk is located on an important supply line between Mirnograd and the western sectors of the front. A Russian breakthrough would threaten the connection with Kramatorsk and Slavyansk - the last major Ukrainian defense centers in Donbas. "If Pokrovsk falls, there are no large cities to the north or west behind which the Ukrainian army could quickly regroup. This would not be the end of the defense, but it would be a critical moment," Beleskov believes. At the same time, the expert warns: "This is a war of attrition, not a war of movement. Even if Pokrovsk retreats, the front will not collapse. The moral effect would be dangerous, especially in Ukraine and internationally." Because, Beleskov explains, Russia could use such a success for propaganda purposes, as well as as leverage in possible negotiations with the United States.
Warnings of military failure
Former Deputy Minister of Defense and founder of the aid organization "Come Back Alive" Vitaly Deinekha also assesses the situation as critical, and from a tactical point of view even as dramatic. "If in the near future no one signs an order to withdraw troops from Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, we may lose not only a large number of highly motivated paratroopers and marines," says Deinekha. According to him, assets worth hundreds of millions of euros can also be added to this. Namely: weapons, equipment, personal belongings of the brigade - practically all the property of the brigade.
"We may find ourselves in a situation where no one is able to fill the gap at the front, and this means that the fortifications built in the rear could quickly fall into the hands of the enemy," warns Deinekha. According to him, excessive concentration on positions that cannot be held could destabilize the entire area west of Pokrovsk and deprive the Ukrainian army of the opportunity to build a new defensive line.
Despite the worsening situation, Kiev assures that the fight continues. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Oleksandr Syrsky, speaks of a "complex operation", in which special forces and reconnaissance units are also involved. Their goal: to defeat Russian troops in the city.