Russian forces may be attempting to block Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk itself, while simultaneously encircling Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd pocket from the west. Russian forces likely considered such an encirclement more feasible than an encirclement from the east.
This was warned by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Elements of the 2nd Army and the 51st Army (formerly the 1st Army of the Donetsk People's Republic) are attempting to close the encirclement of the pocket from the southwest and northeast of Pokrovsk, respectively, but both are struggling to concentrate their forces and make significant progress.
Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in the area of the Dobropilya salient from the west and east, likely to repel Russian attacks in the area and advance north.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that elements of the Russian 114th and 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigades have counterattacked along the line Zapovidnye-Ivanovka (southeast of Dobropilya) and the Mayak-Nove Shakhove line (east of Dobropilya), likely to protect against these Ukrainian counterattacks.
Russian forces likely initially seized the opportunity to advance towards Dobropilya, in part to portray Russian forces as making significant gains before the Alaska summit in August 2025, but the vulnerability resulting from the failure to make significant operational gains in the area could hamper Russia's efforts to complete the encirclement in the Pokrovsk area at this time.
A Russian military blogger admitted in the midst of the Dobropilya operation in August 2025 that the Russian penetration base was too narrow to develop robust logistics, making the salient vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks.
The Kremlin continues to struggle to replace its losses in battlefield with new recruits.
The Russian opposition publication "Vazhnye istorii" reported on November 17 that Russian federal budget spending data showed that 262,700 people signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) and received one-time recruitment bonuses between January and September 2025 — an average of about 29,189 new recruits per month.
Ukraine's General Staff reported that Russian forces suffered about 28,400 to 48,000 casualties per month between January and September 2025.
Data from the Ukrainian General Staff showed that Russian forces suffered an average of about 35,400 casualties per month - more than the reported average monthly recruitment rate. Russia’s primary method of recruiting through high financial incentives and price gouging has reportedly lost momentum and seen diminishing returns in recent months.
ISW continues to assess that Russia’s recent law on the deployment of mobilized reservists in Russia and occupied Ukraine is part of a broader effort to create conditions for the deployment of involuntarily mobilized reservists in combat operations in Ukraine, in an attempt to offset these declining recruitment rates.