In 28 Points! Donald Trump May Punish Kiev for Rejecting Peace Plan

The 28-point plan, drafted by US and Russian envoys and presented to Ukraine this week, came with a deadline and an implicit threat: sign it or risk being abandoned, CNN reports.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky “is going to have to like“ the US plan, suggesting he is in no mood for negotiations.

Trump has since sent mixed messages, saying the plan is not his final proposal but adding that if Zelensky does not accept it he may "continue to fight with all his heart".

Zelensky acknowledged the stark choice in a somber address to the nation on Friday, framing the plan as a choice between losing the US as an ally and giving in to Russian demands, many of which are addressed in the 28 points.

If Kiev loses US support, the consequences for arms supplies and access to intelligence would be severe, compounding existing crises: a shortage of soldiers, a financial crisis and a deepening lack of trust among Ukrainians in a scandal-tainted presidency.

Above all, rejecting the proposal would mean an existential separation from The United States, with huge strategic consequences for Ukraine and its European backers. This would risk the United States turning its back on the conflict, reneging on its promises of security guarantees for Ukraine, and telling not only Zelensky but also the Europeans: “You are to blame”.

Arms supplies

Depriving Ukraine of American weapons would hurt it, but not as much as it would have hurt it three years ago. This is partly because the conflict has changed significantly: tanks, anti-tank weapons, and armored vehicles now play a subordinate role to the omnipresent drones.

The other reason is that arms supplies from Europe are now greater than those from the United States. From the start of the war to June 2025, Europe has allocated at least $40 billion in military aid, $5 billion more than the United States.

The loss of American weapons would hit Ukraine’s air defenses, which include Patriot batteries and missiles, the most. Zelensky has repeatedly asked for more air defenses from the United States, but Patriots are in short supply. Even if the United States were to cut off its own supplies of missiles and spare parts, that could allow European and other allies to continue helping.

Ukraine also has limited supplies of highly effective American ATACM missiles.

The Trump administration has shown greater willingness to sell American weapons to a European-funded fund known as the "Priority Ukraine Needs List" (PURL), worth about $90 billion. But it could punish Ukraine by abandoning the program if Kiev rejects the plan.

Intelligence sharing

The exact nature of this cooperation has never been made public, but it likely includes early warning of Russian missile launches and real-time analysis of Russian troop movements, which is critical as Russian troops advance on several front lines.

In October, Zelensky acknowledged that without U.S. intelligence, all of Ukraine’s Russian missile defense systems – Patriot, NASAMS, and IRIS-T – would be inoperable. will have limited data, meaning that the information will not be sufficient to ensure defense.

American intelligence has also been used for Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia, particularly on military and energy infrastructure, Ukrainian sources have reported.

The Europeans are improving their access to such intelligence, but creating and coordinating such capabilities takes years.

People and money

Ukraine's biggest problems are more internal and cannot be solved by any amount of American tanks or missiles - this applies primarily to the personnel crisis in the army.

If Kiev rejects the project, another victim could be US support for Ukraine's solvency. The International Monetary Fund says Ukraine will need $65 billion in budget support next year alone.

The European Union is trying to agree on how to use frozen Russian assets as collateral for loans. However, the 28-point plan threatens to derail delicate negotiations over the use of these assets.

The tipping point

The potential loss of weapons systems and intelligence, as well as its immediate impact on the battlefield, which is steadily tilting in Moscow’s favor, and on Ukraine’s energy supplies, are very significant.

"But they pale in comparison to the prospect that the United States is prepared to reward Putin’s aggression, to ignore the conquest of European territory, and to withdraw from the most successful peace alliance of the modern era“.