Vladimir Putin's goal is clear: he wants Ukraine to submit to Russia. This is exactly what the conditions and demands he sets, which he constantly repeats, tell us. Two of them are that Ukraine should be at least partially demilitarized and that the country should renounce NATO membership, with this being written into its constitution.
"The position is: Ukraine should have a neutral, non-aligned and non-nuclear status, the country should demilitarize and denazify", Putin said in June 2024 during a meeting with diplomats at the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Putin denies legitimacy of the Kiev leadership
Putin presents the political leadership in Kiev as a "neo-Nazi regime" that is clinging to power. The Russian president's argument: Volodymyr Zelensky's regular term has expired, making him no longer a legitimate president. According to the Kremlin, the Ukrainian leadership made a fundamental mistake by not holding presidential elections. This makes it "pointless" to sign agreements with it. However, Putin ignores the fact that Ukrainian emergency laws do not allow elections to be held during wartime.
Russia wants Ukraine to cede regions
In addition, Putin wants Ukraine to officially cede the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions to Moscow. In September 2022, these territories were designated as Russian in the constitution of the Russian Federation in a referendum that was not recognized by international law. Just like Crimea in 2014.
The fact that Russian forces have so far only captured part of these regions led Putin to say the following to Kiev last week: "Ukrainian troops will withdraw from the occupied territories and then hostilities will cease. If they do not withdraw, we will impose it with weapons."
"We do not need a ceasefire"
The Russian president has been repeating his demands like a mantra since 2022. He has not changed his strategies. "The most important thing is the unconditional achievement of the goals of the military special operation," Putin has stated many times, most recently in Kyrgyzstan.
He is not inclined to compromise: he has already repeatedly rejected demands for a ceasefire. "We don't need a truce," Putin said at his annual press conference last December. Rather, Moscow wants "a long-term and stable peace that guarantees the security of the Russian Federation and its citizens."
The goal and strategy are crystal clear. And they haven't changed in nearly four years. And the tactics? He changes them mostly on the battlefield. When his military units can't hold out in one place, they increase the pressure in another. On the diplomatic front, however, Putin is not backing down a millimeter. At least not in public.
Author: Björn Blaschke (ARD)