The negotiations over the war in Ukraine are frustrating and tragic. On one side, the victim of aggression, whose situation is becoming increasingly desperate. On the other, a brutal aggressor, ready to go to extraordinary lengths to win the war. In the middle, a patient American president, hungry for a deal.
It is not surprising that so many observers are speaking out against the proposals recently put forward by President Donald Trump and his envoy, Steve Witkoff. These proposals seem to offer a lot to Russia and little to Ukraine – except for an end to violence.
However, this is Ukraine’s last chance to end the war while preserving its sovereignty, because in a year’s time conditions could be worse, writes The Guardian.
If the talks produce a plan that offers Ukraine no hope of security after the war, no Ukrainian leader will accept it. Security is the basis of sovereignty, and it would be political suicide to trade Ukraine’s sovereignty for peace. But here’s the problem: in the past, Kiev and its partners have repeatedly overestimated their leverage to end the war on favorable terms, only to find themselves facing further Russian successes and a weaker negotiating position months later.
If the agreement is rejected now, Ukraine will be in a weaker position in the next round of talks, which could take place next year. Russia could insist on the absence of any security guarantees or demand the presence of “its political allies” in Kiev. In that case, Ukraine would no longer negotiate to preserve its sovereignty. It would negotiate the details of returning to a vassal status under Russian leadership.
Rejecting the current proposal, however, would likely result in a reduction in further support from the United States, including a halt to intelligence sharing and the supply of American weapons that Europe currently has the ability to purchase for Ukraine.
Author Christopher S. Chivis, an expert on international politics and security, believes that the current peace proposal may be the last for Ukraine in which it would somehow retain its sovereignty.