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ISW: New 20-point peace plan outlines a different approach to the war in Ukraine

The US, Ukraine and Europe are looking for a compromise framework, but the Kremlin's position remains firm

Dec 25, 2025 09:11 63

ISW: New 20-point peace plan outlines a different approach to the war in Ukraine  - 1

On December 23, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the contents of a new 20-point peace plan, prepared jointly by the US, Ukraine and European partners, which, according to available information, Washington intends to present to Russia. The analysis was conducted by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports News.bg.

According to Zelensky, the published document is a summary of the positions on which the three parties have reached agreement. Along with it, there are three more non-public documents: a joint document of the US, Ukraine and Europe, dedicated to guarantees for the security of Ukraine; a US-Ukrainian document, which considers the role of the US armed forces in these guarantees, including specific mechanisms for responding to a possible renewal of Russian aggression; and a third document, entitled “A Roadmap for Ukraine's Prosperity“, focused on the country's post-war reconstruction and economic development.

The new 20-point plan includes issues on which there is broad agreement between the United States, Ukraine and Europe. At the same time, Zelensky stressed that a number of topics remain open for further discussion. Among them are control over the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant occupied by Russia, as well as possible mechanisms for creating a demilitarized zone or “free economic zone” in the Donetsk region.

The document differs significantly from the previous 28-point plan, which appeared in November 2025. The proposal at that time provided for the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the unoccupied parts of Donbas, international recognition of a demilitarized zone as de facto Russian territory, and a freeze on hostilities along the current front line in Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.

In addition, the 28-point plan proposed limiting the size of the Ukrainian army in peacetime to 600,000 servicemen and abandoning Ukraine's aspirations for NATO membership.

In contrast, the current 20-point plan provides for a freeze on the conflict along the front line at the time of signing the agreement in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions. It allows for a larger number of the Ukrainian army in peacetime – up to 800,000 people – and does not contain an explicit mention of Ukraine's future membership in NATO, although such references may be present in unpublished accompanying documents.

ISW analysts note that in any negotiations, the Kremlin will be forced to make concessions on demands that it has long maintained, including those incompatible with both the new 20-point plan and the earlier 28-point proposal.

US Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker said on December 23 in an interview with Fox News that the initiative is currently in the hands of Russia, which must respond to the four documents, the result of recent consultations between the US, Ukraine and Europe. He stressed that the high losses suffered by Russian forces for minimal territorial gains have not yet motivated the Kremlin to seek an end to the war.

However, the Russian authorities have already signaled a lack of interest in accepting Ukrainian or European counter-proposals. On December 21, Russian presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov expressed confidence that the proposals discussed during the meetings in Miami would be “unconstructive“ and would not improve the previous conditions.

The statements of representatives of the Russian State Duma, as well as information from internal sources indicating dissatisfaction with the new proposals, fit into the Kremlin's consistent line of a firm and uncompromising position in the negotiations.

Meanwhile, military bloggers close to the Russian authorities are acknowledging the successes of Ukrainian forces in the Kupyansk region and criticizing the Russian military command for inaccurate reports from the front. According to them, these failures demonstrate Russia's limited human and material resources to achieve a rapid breakthrough in the northern part of the so-called fortified belt, while offensive operations are also being conducted in other directions.

Military operations continue on the ground. Russian forces have again struck Ukraine's energy infrastructure, with critical infrastructure in Chernihiv region being hit on the night of December 23-24. At the same time, Ukrainian troops are making progress near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces - in the Hulyaipole region.